jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well at least you can say it won't be too far north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For the first time GFS has probably been the most consistent with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:16 AM, Hoosier said: Now if you want to see a storm where the overall model performance was abominable, that's the one. There was an office, either DVN or DSM, that wrote a really good AFD suggesting that everything would trend north hard with that storm. And this was before the models started latching onto the idea. Put that AFD in the category of wx miscellanea I wish I had saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:26 AM, Omahawx said: For the first time GFS has probably been the most consistent with this storm Maybe for your location. The 0z run of the gfs was crap, and had huge differences from the 18z to the 0z. I figured the EURO would be south but not that south. I need a 600 miles shift north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 north trend? haha we might be ok now. I mean 5 days out with a low expected to move near the ohio river means congrats msp right? Now 5 days out with the low over LA and MS...congrats ohio valley? im just kidding, model watching is way to aggrevating. I'll be in dc on christmas, im rooting for a noreaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 at 144hrs at SC/NC coast. This thing looks to destroy i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12z Euro tomorrow, Track Brownsville to Havana to Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:25 AM, Harry said: 132hrs.. se AL.1008mb.. Stupid 18z GFS. Got my hopes up. We should have a fist shaking icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I doubt it will be that far south..the trend so far this winter has not been for storms to go that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:28 AM, Harry said: at 144hrs at SC/NC coast. This thing looks to destroy i95. Good, maybe the EURO is going to just mess with their heads again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I see 3 pieces of energy @ 120 on the Euro One in SW AR, NE TX, NW LA..... Strongest piece. One in SW IA, SE NE, NE KS, NW MO. And one just north of North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:29 AM, Omahawx said: I doubt it will be that far south..the trend so far this winter has not been for storms to go that far south Yeah we have had systems progged to go south only to verify north. So Euro probably is out to lunch on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:28 AM, Stebo48858 said: 12z Euro tomorrow, Track Brownsville to Havana to Bermuda By the time the 'northern' correction happens, it'll be perfect for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Where are you guys getting this data for the euro this early...the model site here doesnt even work for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:28 AM, Stebo48858 said: 12z Euro tomorrow, Track Brownsville to Havana to Bermuda no no no... Track, Cancun to Port-au-Prince to London Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:29 AM, JoMo said: I see 3 pieces of energy @ 120 on the Euro One in SW AR, NE TX, NW LA..... Strongest piece. One in SW IA, SE NE, NE KS, NW MO. And one just north of North Dakota. Like I mentioned earlier, this thing has the markings of a shift North, it just is dictated upon when the phasing occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 They are about to go and make out over on the 0Z discussion thread in weather and forecasting per latest ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:27 AM, snowstormcanuck said: There was an office, either DVN or DSM, that wrote a really good AFD suggesting that everything would trend north hard with that storm. And this was before the models started latching onto the idea. Put that AFD in the category of wx miscellanea I wish I had saved. Memory isn't the best but I recall the Euro about 5 days out suggesting something close to what the ultimate solution was. Can't remember if it held onto it or not. What really sticks out is just how awful the GFS was. I mean bad...it severely underplayed the inland primary basically until just before the event began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:32 AM, baroclinic_instability said: They are about to go and make out over on the 0Z discussion thread in weather and forecasting per latest ECM. yep it's an I-95 dream for them. 'historic blizzard' 'feet' have been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:32 AM, baroclinic_instability said: They are about to go and make out over on the 0Z discussion thread in weather and forecasting per latest ECM. i had to leave that thread, i didn't have protection on me....lol but yea, euro goes from non event to KU bomb in 12 hours and apparently some in the MA and NE haven't learned their lesson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:35 AM, buckeye said: i had to leave that thread, i didn't have protection on me....lol but yea, euro goes from non event to KU bomb in 12 hours and apparently some in the MA and NE haven't learned their lesson Ill put money says euro shifts at least 400 miles north of where the 0z is. But hey, never go against a gut feeling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the euro is holding the energy back longer in the sw... ...isn't that a well know bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:34 AM, JoMo said: yep it's an I-95 dream for them. 'historic blizzard' 'feet' have been mentioned. dont forget "White Hurricane" and "Historic Blizzard for the south" "I-95 shutdown" Blah blah blah.. Not gonna happen. Any betters in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:34 AM, JoMo said: yep it's an I-95 dream for them. 'historic blizzard' 'feet' have been mentioned. Wasn't the system that is missing them supposed to do the same on a Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:37 AM, buckeye said: the euro is holding the energy back longer in the sw... ...isn't that a well know bias? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:38 AM, dilly84 said: dont forget "White Hurricane" and "Historic Blizzard for the south" "I-95 shutdown" Blah blah blah.. Not gonna happen. Any betters in here? after the week in picking games in the NFL I'll pass on that. but I think the models OH maybe 12Z Tuesday will leave a LOT of tears from our buds along I-95... the more closer bet should be will Margusity go ape crazy in his madness video today after seeing the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:37 AM, buckeye said: the euro is holding the energy back longer in the sw... ...isn't that a well know bias? Never bet against the Euro, however even it has it's oddball runs. But, UKMET + GGEM + Euro all have a more southern solution while the GFS has pretty much stuck to it's guns as Omahawx stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:30 AM, Omahawx said: Where are you guys getting this data for the euro this early...the model site here doesnt even work for 0z You can get a rough outline here of the Euro as it comes out: http://greatlakes.salsite.com/big_ECMWF_plymouth_page.html Most of the info is being gained from tombo and people who pay for the models on pay sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:41 AM, jhamps10 said: after the week in picking games in the NFL I'll pass on that. but I think the models OH maybe 12Z Tuesday will leave a LOT of tears from our buds along I-95... the more closer bet should be will Margusity go ape crazy in his madness video today after seeing the euro... I say 12z tomorrow. Will start making its northern correction he posted on FB "going to be a busy week, lots of snow maps to make" I commented and I said "please dont make one for Ohio" guy is like the curse of winter storms. He posts a map and its a 99.9% chance it wont happen. He sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 On 12/20/2010 at 6:42 AM, JoMo said: Never bet against the Euro, however even it has it's oddball runs. But, UKMET + GGEM + Euro all have a more southern solution while the GFS has pretty much stuck to it's guns as Omahawx stated. I'll bet against it.. Ive got paypal. lol. Ill bet that it is at least 300 miles north of where it is on the 0z. Had to post this from the other thread. lol On 12/20/2010 at 6:39 AM, HM said: Overall, this makes more sense to me to get a major snowstorm than anything the GFS was ever doing. This is a solution worthy of attention...finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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