December 24-25 Snowstorm

[Jim Martin]

Let's start chatting about the potential storm for Christmas Eve/Day.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I would like to say congrats to the Twin Cities..

[Amos83]

I'm going to be traveling to the Carbondale/Marion area Thursday - Chrismas. It would be pretty sweet to see a decent snow while there. The GFS did peek my interested but still a long way to go. Would like to see it track a little further south for my benefit.

[JoMo]

We're gonna need a storm to form over S. Mexico on the models @ 156 if it's to be anywhere near us by the time it hits, Friv.

[snowstormcanuck]

Jim Martin storm thread? I think that's a new one. Good luck!

I'll take a 90% miss to the south. Just an inch on Christmas Eve is all I ask for.

[toronto blizzard]

Jim Martin storm thread? I think that's a new one. Good luck!

I'll take a 90% miss to the south. Just an inch on Christmas Eve is all I ask for.

This isn't a storm for us. Yet another one just missing us to the south Winter cancel

[snowstormcanuck]

This isn't a storm for us. Yet another one just missing us to the south Winter cancel

Like I said in the other thread, the extreme blocking should be gone by early January at the latest. The problem then is that we'll have to contend with warmth. But as I also said in the other thread, I'll take my chances with a progressive pattern over this -NAO/-AO bs. -NAO/-AO could be the worse two teleconnectors to have occurring simultaneously for snow in Toronto. The only thing that would make it worse is if -NAO/-AO was occurring during a Nino winter. Then we wouldn't get the privilege of LES.

[Hoosier]

Like I said in the other thread, the extreme blocking should be gone by early January at the latest. The problem then is that we'll have to contend with warmth. But as I also said in the other thread, I'll take my chances with a progressive pattern over this -NAO/-AO bs. -NAO/-AO could be the worse two teleconnectors to have occurring simultaneously for snow in Toronto. The only thing that would make it worse is if -NAO/-AO was occurring during a Nino winter. Then we wouldn't get the privilege of LES.

AO is in -5 territory right now...pretty impressive. It looks like it will rise toward neutral/positive in the next couple weeks...I guess the potential bad news for you is that this type of regime may well return later in the winter, but first things first.

[cromartie]

I hope the snow is minor on Christmas. Sorry but I have a lot of travel plans.

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[daddylonglegs]

Hope we get buried on Christmas. Only 25 inches so far. Need more.

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[dilly84]

Hope we get buried on Christmas. Only 25 inches so far. Need more.

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Lol love the last line haha.

[Thundersnow12]

I can't remember the last time I've seen the GFS being so consistent with a system for over 2 days with regards to placement and qpf.

[BowMeHunter]

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[TheWeatherPimp]

From IND:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED IS ON A POTENTIAL CLIPPER-LIKE STORM

SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS A TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND

TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE AND

MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH PROVIDES A NICE

COMPROMISE WITH TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE REGION ON

FRIDAY. 12Z OP GFS MUCH QUICKER IN EJECTING THE LOW OUT OF THE

CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...LIKELY DUE TO A LESS AMPLIFIED

DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF...UKMET

AND GGEM ALL FAVOR A DEEPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK

WITH A MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

BEING 5-6 DAYS OUT...STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO HASH OUT THE SPECIFICS

WITH RESPECT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...HPC GUIDANCE

SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND FASTER GUIDANCE

LISTED ABOVE SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT.

REGARDLESS OF TIMING AT THIS POINT...THIS IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING

LIKE A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DOSE OF

WINTRY WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK. MAJORITY OF MODEL DATA BRING ABOVE

FREEZING AIR THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF

THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH MODEL

SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH AIRMASS FOR SNOW

FURTHER NORTH. LOT OF VARIABLES TO HASH OUT WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY

INFLUENCE PRECIP TYPE...BUT PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY

THURSDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME FORM OF THE SNOWPACK

REMAINS ON THE GROUND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK WOULD

SUPPORT TRENDING TOWARDS COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY.

FOR NOW...FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE WITH A RAIN/SNOW

MIX OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SNOW CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. HAVE

INCREASED POPS INTO CHANCE CATEGORY WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE IN

PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EVEN AT THIS EARLY

STAGE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO LOOK POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH MUCH TOO SOON

TO INDICATE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS/LOCATION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE

TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN WAKE OF THE LOW

PRESSURE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BROUGHT SOUTH INTO THE

GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX HELPS TO

AMPLIFY THE TROUGHING ALOFT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...LIKELY TO BE

ONGOING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND WILL CONTINUE

WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[jcwxguy]

looks like i may get my wish for christmas....a white one

[The_Global_Warmer]

all of the models give STL a snowstorm right now.

too bad this isn't tomorrow.

even the DGEX is almost to far south.

[msp]

I would like to say congrats to the Twin Cities..

i'm gone again on the east coast. it's a lock.

mpx was brief but optimistic

THIS IS NOT THE END OF THE PARADE OF STORMS. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM

ON THURSDAY IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK TO THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. IT

IS LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

[jhamps10]

all of the models give STL a snowstorm right now.

too bad this isn't tomorrow.

even the DGEX is almost to far south.

and the bad thing in that one is.......

[buckeye]

i know it's the 84 hr nam...but damn, looking at that 500map and that ridge popping out in the mid section of the country ahead of the storm ....it's just hard to imagine how that sucker doesn't cut pretty far north.

[Harry]

i know it's the 84 hr nam...but damn, looking at that 500map and that ridge popping out in the mid section of the country ahead of the storm ....it's just hard to imagine how that sucker doesn't cut pretty far north.

Wait till you see the GFS..

Thankfully i'll be in Ohio for this puppy.

[JoMo]

On the 00z GFS, just a bit too far north for my area, and GFS has been on the southern end of the solutions.

[Powerball]

Thankfully i'll be in Ohio for this puppy.

You know what that means...

(hint: Battle Creek's looking a might pretty for this storm)

[dilly84]

Ill gladly take the gfs run. I've got a little wiggle room in my location, maybe 50 miles north it can still come before I have to worry.

[buckeye]

Wait till you see the GFS..

Thankfully i'll be in Ohio for this puppy.

uh oh....you might want to stay up in michigan. Throw in the usual northern adjustment and by monday the gfs will have this puppy riding along i-80

[Harry]

You know what that means...

(hint: Battle Creek's looking a might pretty for this storm)

And trust me if it even looks like that will happen ( has to be decent though and thus 6+ ) i will cancel my plans. I am being dead serious.

[buckeye]

And trust me if it even looks like that will happen ( has to be decent though and thus 6+ ) i will cancel my plans. I am being dead serious.

apparently you weren't planning a visit to the inlaws

I'd feel a lot better if the euro continues tracking this thru KY as well....or even if its too south for an ideal hit here. It seems the euro rarely adjusts back south once it starts to lock onto a track.

[Powerball]

And trust me if it even looks like that will happen ( has to be decent though and thus 6+ ) i will cancel my plans. I am being dead serious.

The models are VERY close to taking on that tilt too.

If we can just get rid of that left over confluence over Ontario then things shouldn't have any problem going boom.

[Harry]

apparently you weren't planning a visit to the inlaws

I'd feel a lot better if the euro continues tracking this thru KY as well....or even if its too south for an ideal hit here. It seems the euro rarely adjusts back south once it starts to lock onto a track.

Actually that is the plan but i have various ways to get out of it without hearing any crap.

[jhamps10]

I'd like the gfs be 40 miles further south thanks, I'm not in the mood to spend Christmas in the middle of an ice storm..

[Stevo6899]

i know it's the 84 hr nam...but damn, looking at that 500map and that ridge popping out in the mid section of the country ahead of the storm ....it's just hard to imagine how that sucker doesn't cut pretty far north.

Henry M and several Afd's keep saying it will take a similar track to the mon-tuesday storm. They say the models are too much south with the second wave.