ADKweather27 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Pretty strong consents of an above normal winter for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Thanks for the thoughts Don. Hopefully the colder/snowier end of the analogs end up playing out for December, but I tend to lean mild right now as well, at least to begin the month. Of course things could change given the time frame, but there is some reasonable support for SE ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Thanks for the thoughts Don. Hopefully the colder/snowier end of the analogs end up playing out for December, but I tend to lean mild right now as well, at least to begin the month. Of course things could change given the time frame, but there is some reasonable support for SE ridging. there have been some warm starts to December in my lifetime and before... year dates............max...60+....coments... 12/01-07/1912........64....2.....mild snowless winter but had the snowiest Christmas Eve on record... 12/01-08/1932........63....3.....mild but did have above average snowfall and mid December snowstorm... 12/07-13/1946........70....4.....mild until February when it turned cold and snowy into March... 12/01-09/1951........64....6.....Mid month winter storm with snow sleet and rain and cold wave...mild winter with some snow... 12/04-10/1953........63....4.....mild December...Cold and snowy January...Mild after... 12/03-08/1956........67....2.....mild December...Cold and snowy January...seasonable after... 12/03-07/1960........64....2.....very cold December with a blizzard on the 12th...Cold snowy winter... 12/01-06/1962........68....1.....very cold December...some snow on the 11th..very cold winter with little snow... 12/06-11/1966........66....4.....Cold second half of December with a snowstorm Christmas eve...cold snowy winter... 12/01-04/1970........66....2.....cold December with snow and sleet just before Christmas...Cold winter with little snow... 12/06-10/1980........64....2.....cold second half of December with snow just before Christmas...Christmas cold wave...cold with little snow... 12/01-08/1982........72....3.....snow on the 12th...mild but snowy winter... 12/01-08/1998........75....6.....snow just before Christmas otherwise a mild and snowless winter... 12/01-07/2001........71....5.....mild snowless winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 December 2003 featured 19 inches of snow in NYC - you sure you want to include that in the list ? December 03 was a fairly mild month overall but things timed out correctly where we managed to get 2 snow events and in the case of both events we also got some luck within them to get even bigger totals than we probably had any business seeing. 03-04 was largely a winter made of a 2 week period and one well timed storm, February was also mild and snowless overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I think the winter is going to be variable - meaning just like the last few weeks we are going to have some very chilly periods and some very mild ones - the thing that is very concerning though is this dry pattern we have been in even though many of the models keep overdoing the precip amounts in the longer range the last couple of months and we end up with much less... I tend to agree with some of this. I think it's likely to be a winter of wild swings back & forth from very cold to extremely mild with some of the cold likely to exceed that of most recent winters, when it does occur. The question is when do we get our precipitation. Given the dry weather regime we are and have been in, and little indication of a major pattern change at this time, I think the odds are that most of the moisture will occur when we are on the warm side of the storm track. There just does not seem to be much of any signal for a very active subtropical jet or intense rapid coastal storm development for our area. I think we will see our share of Colorado lows scooting up into the eastern Great Lakes. There will also be a number of Alberta clippers which will usually draw extremely cold air se-ward in their wake. There will be times when weaker cold fronts could get hung up just to our south and east and a wave of low pressure forms on them over the Tennessee Valley only to scoot on e-ward rather quickly bringing a shot of light snow our way, or out to our south. But at times absent of Alberta clippers and when the parade of low pressure systems zooming e-ward from Colorado slows down, there will be some unusually mild/dry air flooding into the eastern half of the CONUS. I think it's something like winters 1964-65 or 1974-75. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 December 03 was a fairly mild month overall but things timed out correctly where we managed to get 2 snow events and in the case of both events we also got some luck within them to get even bigger totals than we probably had any business seeing. 03-04 was largely a winter made of a 2 week period and one well timed storm, February was also mild and snowless overall. Disagree. I think you're selling that winter short. February was colder than normal, December was near normal, and January was brutally cold. The early December storm was a MECS to even HECS for portions of NJ, January was snowy, and although February had nothing, March was quite snowy (9.4" in New Brunswick). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 03-04 was largely a winter made of a 2 week period and one well timed storm,. Disagree...Upton saw 60.2" of snow that winter...which was more than Worcester, MA saw...January 2004 was close to the coldest month in the last 30 years and had two very significant snowstorms...December 2003 saw a major snowstorm and a now almost forgotten 5 incher that went to rain. March saw 10 inches plus as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 Disagree...Upton saw 60.2" of snow that winter...which was more than Worcester, MA saw...January 2004 was close to the coldest month in the last 30 years and had two very significant snowstorms...December 2003 saw a major snowstorm and a now almost forgotten 5 incher that went to rain. March saw 10 inches plus as well. Around the NYC area, winter 2003-04 was a good one. It featured two 10" snowstorms, including snowfall when the temperature was in the single digits. It was the 2nd of what would be a record 4 consecutive winters with 40" or more snow for NYC. With a mean temperature of 24.7°, January 2004 was the coldest month since January 1977 and the 9th coldest on record for the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Around the NYC area, winter 2003-04 was a good one. It featured two 10" snowstorms, including snowfall when the temperature was in the single digits. It was the 2nd of what would be a record 4 consecutive winters with 40" or more snow for NYC. With a mean temperature of 24.7°, January 2004 was the coldest month since January 1977 and the 9th coldest on record for the City. it was also the last time NYC had a temperature of one degree...It happened twice in January 2004... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Disagree...Upton saw 60.2" of snow that winter...which was more than Worcester, MA saw...January 2004 was close to the coldest month in the last 30 years and had two very significant snowstorms...December 2003 saw a major snowstorm and a now almost forgotten 5 incher that went to rain. March saw 10 inches plus as well. Agree - 2003 -2004 was a front ended winter - the best type IMO 19 inches in December in Central Park and 17 inches in January and it started early with a Major - 2 part snowstorm on Dec. 5 and 6 2003 for a total of 15 inches and as William mentioned impressive cold in January - most of us would welcome a repeat of that winter......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 Just to see where things may be headed for the second half of November, I ran partial analogs based on the forecast EPO, PNA, and AO. I also ran the December map for those partial analog years. ENSO was not factored in right now, but will be as we get closer to December. The leading partial analog was 2006. 2003 was second. A new entry was 2011. The maps were as follows: Several caveats: 1. It's too soon to have a good degree of confidence with respect to December 2. ENSO will need to be factored in 3. Parts of the Arctic are experiencing below to much below normal temperatures at present as per DMI 4. The map for the 2nd half of December bears some similarity to the latest CFSv2 forecast for December, except that the anomalies on the CFSv2 are positioned a little to the west of the November 16-30 map 5. Given #3, it is plausible that parts of Eurasia might have a shot at cold anomalies in December (the CFSv2 is warm throughout much of Eurasia and North America). Any way, it's this consistency of generally warm outcomes that is slowly adding to my confidence in a possible mild winter in the eastern half of the U.S. (and perhaps on a more widespread basis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Just to see where things may be headed for the second half of November, I ran partial analogs based on the forecast EPO, PNA, and AO. I also ran the December map for those partial analog years. ENSO was not factored in right now, but will be as we get closer to December. The leading partial analog was 2006. 2003 was second. A new entry was 2011. The maps were as follows: Several caveats: 1. It's too soon to have a good degree of confidence with respect to December 2. ENSO will need to be factored in 3. Parts of the Arctic are experiencing below to much below normal temperatures at present as per DMI 4. The map for the 2nd half of December bears some similarity to the latest CFSv2 forecast for December, except that the anomalies on the CFSv2 are positioned a little to the west of the November 16-30 map 5. Given #3, it is plausible that parts of Eurasia might have a shot at cold anomalies in December (the CFSv2 is warm throughout much of Eurasia and North America). Any way, it's this consistency of generally warm outcomes that is slowly adding to my confidence in a possible mild winter in the eastern half of the U.S. (and perhaps on a more widespread basis). as long as you keep 2003 in the mix there is hope - that was one heck of a front ended winter in NYC Metro with close to 37 inches of snow for December and January combined and a very cold January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 as long as you keep 2003 in the mix there is hope - that was one heck of a front ended winter in NYC Metro with close to 37 inches of snow for December and January combined and a very cold January... we had 4-6" of snow 3/16/04 and another event just after that...analogs are all over the place this year...enso will neutral negative or neutral positive... season....oni DJF... 2003-04.....0.3 1990-91.....0.3 1992-93.....0.2 1993-94.....0.1 1989-90.....0.1 1960-61.....0.0 1959-60....-0.1 1978-79....-0.1 1981-82....-0.1 1961-62....-0.2 2001-02....-0.2 1956-57....-0.3 1966-67....-0.3 MEI DJ index... 1993-94.....338 1990-91.....309 2003-04.....308 2004-05.....301 1989-90.....234 2012-13.....042 1952-53.....024 2001-02...-.050 1953-54...-.051 1960-61...-.152 1980-81...-.245 1981-82...-.282 1985-86...-.307 1959-60...-.311 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 we had 4-6" of snow 3/16/04 and another event just after that...analogs are all over the place this year...enso will neutral negative or neutral positive... season....oni DJF... 2003-04.....0.3 1990-91.....0.3 1992-93.....0.2 1993-94.....0.1 1989-90.....0.1 1960-61.....0.0 1959-60....-0.1 1978-79....-0.1 1981-82....-0.1 1961-62....-0.2 2001-02....-0.2 1956-57....-0.3 1966-67....-0.3 MEI DJ index... 1993-94.....338 1990-91.....309 2003-04.....308 2004-05.....301 1989-90.....234 2012-13.....042 1952-53.....024 2001-02...-.050 1953-54...-.051 1960-61...-.152 1980-81...-.245 1981-82...-.282 1985-86...-.307 1959-60...-.311 some of these analogs were historic one way or the other...1960-61 and 2001-02 are two examples... the maps of the eight years on both lists...maps of all the years combined... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Another look at the teleconnection indices forecast in the extended part of the forecast range with the analog years rolled over to December hints at a mild month overall across a large part of North America. Moreover, that map is quite similar to the latest CFSv2 forecast anomalies. Neither the CFSv2 nor the analogs are very skillful from this point in time. The trend and/or persistence of the analog cases is more important right now. As for mid-month when the AO is forecast to spike at strongly positive values (perhaps +3 or above) even as the EPO plunges to a figure perhaps near -3, there are huge differences among the generated maps. Part of the reason is that such a situation has not been very common in the given timeframe. Where there seems to be some agreement is that the trough axis might be somewhat west of where the 12z operational GFS placed it. That could hint at a possible larger precipitation event than what the GFS is showing for next week. Despite the large spread for mid-month, the analog years that result also point predominantly to a mild December in the composite sample. However there are 3 cases with a lot of warmth (1994, 2006 and 2012) and two cases with widespread cold (1985 and 2010). The forecast evolution of the teleconnection indices following the near simultaneous EPO bottom/AO spike favors the warmer evolution. 2006 remains a leading December analog at this time. From this timeframe, a lot can still change. Once we're about 7-10 days out, the picture should be much clearer. The consistency of the warmer outcome, though, seems to suggest that remains the more likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Another look at the teleconnection indices forecast in the extended part of the forecast range with the analog years rolled over to December hints at a mild month overall across a large part of North America. Moreover, that map is quite similar to the latest CFSv2 forecast anomalies. Neither the CFSv2 nor the analogs are very skillful from this point in time. The trend and/or persistence of the analog cases is more important right now. As for mid-month when the AO is forecast to spike at strongly positive values (perhaps +3 or above) even as the EPO plunges to a figure perhaps near -3, there are huge differences among the generated maps. Part of the reason is that such a situation has not been very common in the given timeframe. Where there seems to be some agreement is that the trough axis might be somewhat west of where the 12z operational GFS placed it. That could hint at a possible larger precipitation event than what the GFS is showing for next week. Despite the large spread for mid-month, the analog years that result also point predominantly to a mild December in the composite sample. However there are 3 cases with a lot of warmth (1994, 2006 and 2012) and two cases with widespread cold (1985 and 2010). The forecast evolution of the teleconnection indices following the near simultaneous EPO bottom/AO spike favors the warmer evolution. 2006 remains a leading December analog at this time. From this timeframe, a lot can still change. Once we're about 7-10 days out, the picture should be much clearer. The consistency of the warmer outcome, though, seems to suggest that remains the more likely scenario. always a great read Don...I look foward to reading your thoughts...maybe the colder Arctic will be the thrump card this year...2006 might be to warm an analog but that remains to be seen...November 2006 did not have any arctic air...it looks like it will be a lot colder this year...this doesn't mean December will be cold...Last year we had a cold November and mild December...2006-07 also holds the record for the latest trace of snow in NYC when the first flakes came on January 10th 2007... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 always a great read Don...I look foward to reading your thoughts...maybe the colder Arctic will be the thrump card this year...2006 might be to warm an analog but that remains to be seen...November 2006 did not have any arctic air...it looks like it will be a lot colder this year...this doesn't mean December will be cold...Last year we had a cold November and mild December...2006-07 also holds the record for the latest trace of snow in NYC when the first flakes came on January 10th 2007... Toward the end of November, I'll post my final winter thoughts. They'll probably be posted in the General Forum's Winter 2013-14 thread, as I will have a nationwide look. Hopefully, no matter the temperature anomalies, we'll have some exciting weather to highlight the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 December 03 was a fairly mild month overall but things timed out correctly where we managed to get 2 snow events and in the case of both events we also got some luck within them to get even bigger totals than we probably had any business seeing. 03-04 was largely a winter made of a 2 week period and one well timed storm, February was also mild and snowless overall. Disagree...Upton saw 60.2" of snow that winter...which was more than Worcester, MA saw...January 2004 was close to the coldest month in the last 30 years and had two very significant snowstorms...December 2003 saw a major snowstorm and a now almost forgotten 5 incher that went to rain. March saw 10 inches plus as well. Per permission of board member NorthShoreWx: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Sir William, I'd gander that exact spot of Suffolk has overall seen best snow totals in our region past decade. Sometimes it shifts east, sometimes west, but the Setauket-Miller Place- Ridge line has some stupendous snowfall totals the past decade. No 80s, these have been, in a long time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Sir William, I'd gander that exact spot of Suffolk has overall seen best snow totals in our region past decade. Sometimes it shifts east, sometimes west, but the Setauket-Miller Place- Ridge line has some stupendous snowfall totals the past decade. No 80s, these have been, in a long time... Might as well post the other maps for posterity or whatever pal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Have been living and working here for 11 years now, and that Long Island central north shore maximum is for real. It's protected from the influence of the ocean to the east and south, away from the urban heat island, and generally at higher elevations than the south shore. That area also hit the jackpot in February's blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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bkviking Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 One might very well view that all of these snowfall maps William has shown lend credence to assertion Long Island as a whole and Central-eastern-Suffolk in particular as a region is more synonymous with New England than North Mid Atlantic climatology. Certainly last year's Feb 8 Storm is a Long Island/New England special. Notably, Feb 78 offered much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 One might very well view that all of these snowfall maps William has shown lend credence to assertion Long Island as a whole and Central-eastern-Suffolk in particular as a region is more synonymous with New England than North Mid Atlantic climatology. Certainly last year's Feb 8 Storm is a Long Island/New England special. Notably, Feb 78 offered much the same. L.I. is really the big transitional point between the cold snowy winters to the north and the mild rainy winters to the south...evinced by the frequent positioning of the rain / snow line in the vicinity. as for the general location one would most associate the climate with...hard to pin down...depends on the pattern and the general synoptic set up...sometimes the weather is very similar to NYC...sometimes southern CT....sometimes eastern New England...I don't think we can tie it to one specific region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 2006-07 winter averaged 36.5 for the 90 day period 12/1 to 2/28...The coldest 30 day period was from late January to late February at 25.8...That means the other 60 days averaged 41.9...Other winters with similar numbers...These winters were one third cold and two thirds mild... winter.....ave temp.....30 day cold.....other 60 days... 2006-07..........36.5...............25.8...............41.9 1999-00..........36.2...............26.2...............41.2 1953-54..........37.4...............30.3...............41.0 1984-85..........36.4...............27.5...............40.9 1989-90..........35.7...............25.3...............40.9 1994-95..........37.1...............31.5...............40.4 1983-84..........35.2...............26.1...............39.8 1965-66..........35.9...............28.5...............39.6 1956-57..........35.6...............27.8...............39.5 1971-72..........35.1...............28.6...............38.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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