Very Early Winter 2013-14 Thoughts

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Don. Couple of questions,what Ens do you use? when you say 

"1989 saw a predominantly AO- regime set in during  the 11/17-12/21 period. So, the possibility of a temporary period of blocking is feasible. I don't think we'll see something like 1989. The ensemble forecasts also seem to lean against such an outcome"

 

 

 

Today's Ens AO spread shows an increasing number of members joining in on an AO drop mid month, I have been following this for the past few days, also you are aware of the overwhelming correlation to USA cold due to EPO status? There appears to be a change in the works mid month in NAO state too as increasing members are dropping the value there too. Will this affect your outlook if values drop mid month and average out lower than you anticipate. Thanks.

[billgwx]

Per this post the SAI this year looks similar to that of 2007: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41113-and-we-begin/page-4#entry2458000

 

So to me that looks like +AO, or neutral AO at best.

 

If the current negative PDO persists, that would point toward a milder winter with above normal precip farther inland.

 

Have not seen much mention of the QBO. It's at a different starting point right now (positive) than last year at this time when it was strongly negative, but looks to continue trending gradually lower toward more neutral values by late January, which correlates well with a greater likelihood of -NAO from that point on in the winter.

 

So I think we start off relatively mild and dry (extension of ongoing conditions), then anticipate a mid or late winter pattern change that would bring more opportunities for wintry weather.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Don. Couple of questions,what Ens do you use? when you say 

"1989 saw a predominantly AO- regime set in during  the 11/17-12/21 period. So, the possibility of a temporary period of blocking is feasible. I don't think we'll see something like 1989. The ensemble forecasts also seem to lean against such an outcome"

 

 

 

Today's Ens AO spread shows an increasing number of members joining in on an AO drop mid month, I have been following this for the past few days, also you are aware of the overwhelming correlation to USA cold due to EPO status? There appears to be a change in the works mid month in NAO state too as increasing members are dropping the value there too. Will this affect your outlook if values drop mid month and average out lower than you anticipate. Thanks.

Ginxy,

 

I used the GFS ensembles. Aside from three members, most members fall but stabilize toward mid-November. That's nothing like the strong blocking that showed up in 1989. Moreover, beyond that, the MJO is not forecast to be in Phase 6 as it was when the 1989 blocking developed. Things could still change, but at this point in time, it appears the odds are against a strong blocking pattern developing at the time the 1989 pattern commenced.

[Ginx snewx]

Ginxy,

 

I used the GFS ensembles. Aside from three members, most members fall but stabilize toward mid-November. That's nothing like the strong blocking that showed up in 1989. Moreover, beyond that, the MJO is not forecast to be in Phase 6 as it was when the 1989 blocking developed. Things could still change, but at this point in time, it appears the odds are against a strong blocking pattern developing at the time the 1989 pattern commenced.

Thanks, certainly 89 was an aberration as that was perhaps the coldest Dec in history in my area.I would not expect anything close to that. If AO does however average less than the .5 you envision will that change your thoughts and what about EPO?

[Ginx snewx]

Per this post the SAI this year looks similar to that of 2007: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41113-and-we-begin/page-4#entry2458000

 

So to me that looks like +AO, or neutral AO at best.

 

If the current negative PDO persists, that would point toward a milder winter with above normal precip farther inland.

 

Have not seen much mention of the QBO. It's at a different starting point right now (positive) than last year at this time when it was strongly negative, but looks to continue trending gradually lower toward more neutral values by late January, which correlates well with a greater likelihood of -NAO from that point on in the winter.

 

So I think we start off relatively mild and dry (extension of ongoing conditions), then anticipate a mid or late winter pattern change that would bring more opportunities for wintry weather.

The NNE folks I am sure would love an 07/08 winter as that was historical for them in terms of snowfall. My area was 115% of normal similar to 75/76

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, certainly 89 was an aberration as that was perhaps the coldest Dec in history in my area.I would not expect anything close to that. If AO does however average less than the .5 you envision will that change your thoughts and what about EPO?

My thoughts on the winter EPO are not firmed up. They can change.

[Absolute Humidity]

AO was actually slightly negative for 93-94 but it's another winter where the -EPO did most of the work. NAO was strongly positive.

Thanks, 

[bkviking]

When we have the complete numbers, the SAI, the OSI, and - most importantly - the DSI ("Don Sutherland Index") - I think we'll have a strong feel for prospective winter.. When Don S is sniffing a whiff its a pretty solid watch sign.

Wes has an interesting table he uses for mid-Atlantic with regards NAO/AO comparisons. We have anything like what Wes uses for our area?

[Chaser25973]

Well, this is depressing. Maybe this will be the reverse of when Don called for a gangbuster winter and it wound up craptastic? Perhaps not, but one could hope.

[NEG NAO]

Well, this is depressing. Maybe this will be the reverse of when Don called for a gangbuster winter and it wound up craptastic? Perhaps not, but one could hope.

Depressing ? Almost all longer term outlooks are inaccurate . Let's worry about the second half of November through mid December first - anything beyond that is next to impossible to predict this far out.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Depressing ? Almost all longer term outlooks are inaccurate . Let's worry about the second half of November through mid December first - anything beyond that is next to impossible to predict this far out.

 

Exactly. Remember what happened between Late July and Late September? Huge flip from Above Average to Below Average Temperatures. 

[Guest Pamela]

Depressing ? Almost all longer term outlooks are inaccurate . Let's worry about the second half of November through mid December first - anything beyond that is next to impossible to predict this far out.

 

Couldn't agree more.  As Wxoutlooks once said..."long range forecasting is gradually improving but still is generally not much more than educated guesswork."

[ADKweather27]

Long range euro shows possible torch with southeast ridge for mid November as PNA goes negative and AO and EPO go positive

[toronto blizzard]

Long range euro shows possible torch with southeast ridge for mid November as PNA goes negative and AO and EPO go positive

The EPO will not be going positive

[CoastalWx]

The EPO will not be going positive

I wouldn't be so sure.

[Wannabehippie]

Don - won't allow me to post the image here - but if you go to JB's twitter account - on oct 30 post he shows the NCEP 06Z CFS 2-meter temp graphic for December 1st -14th and it shows a cold east and warm west pattern shaping up - any thoughts ?

Well given it is JB, I would go with Don's forecast.

[Weathergun]

There this tendancy on the GEFS and ECENS to flatten out the North Pacific ridge by mid-November. This gives more of a neutral or positive EPO:

 

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

January looking cold according to this

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/396658835516977152/photo/1

[WeatherFox]

I tip my hat to Don for his thoughts, analysis & efforts and to the others commenting on this interesting topic.   I agree that long range forecasting has its limits.  Just look at how challenging it is to make the annual hurricance outlook.  We got supercomputers, models, indexes, teleconnections, great meteorologial minds and at the end of the day we are sometimes challenged in short range forecasting let alone, the medium range, seasonal range and long range outlooks.   Best we can currently do is to qualify forecasts with above average chances, below average chances, even changes on temperatures and precipitation.  Chaos reigns control in the dynamics of meteorology and we can't get all the data needed to predict the future with too much confidence.  When we do score a win with a winter outlook of cold and snowy was it from analysis or plain luck?

 

Made correction, changed telecommuniations to teleconnections.   

[NEG NAO]

I tip my hat to Don for his thoughts, analysis & efforts and to the others commenting on this interesting topic.   I agree that long range forecasting has its limits.  Just look at how challenging it is to make the annual hurricance outlook.  We got supercomputers, models, indexes, telecommunications, great meteorologial minds and at the end of the day we are sometimes challenged in short range forecasting let alone, the medium range, seasonal range and long range outlooks.   Best we can currently do is to qualify forecasts with above average chances, below average chances, even changes on temperatures and precipitation.  Chaos reigns control in the dynamics of meteorology and we can't get all the data needed to predict the future with too much confidence.  When we do score a win with a winter outlook of cold and snowy was it from analysis or plain luck?

I would lean more towards plain luck. Also IMHO the most difficult part of a winter forecast is trying to predict snowfall for a season. We have had major snowstorms in all types of ENSO Years - positive and negative NAO's in different ENSO type years. Same goes for PNA and EPO and AO positives and negatives and every combo possible. Also we have experienced which on paper should have been perfect setups that did not deliver snowstorms. So many ingredients and TIMING determine if we get individual snowstorms and how they interact with one another ( which I don't think even the most skilled meterologist fully understands)- this is what makes it so difficult to forecast snowfall in the long range..

[uncle W]

Joe BS Artie is going with 1993-94...1947-48 was unavailable...What...I don't gamble except for the lottery but I'd bet my house it won't be another 1993-94 winter around here...I don't think we'll get shut out either...he thinks the enso will be a neutral positive year...I mentioned last week the mei rose to -0.190 from -0.614...oni stayed the same and weekly 3.4 index is steady at -0.4...If the mei keeps rising the oni will follow...I'm hoping NDJ oni stays between -0.1 and -0.5 and neutral overall for the winter...all the neutral negative Decembers with an oni between -0.1 and -0.5 had a monthly negative AO...It is probably a coincidence but it will be interesting to watch if it happens again...

[donsutherland1]

If one looks at the ensemble forecasts for mid-November, one finds:

 

1. The AO having gone negative; such a change is not inconsistent with a number of years that started the month with a strong AO+ set up. The big question concerns whether the blocking will be temporary. Odds favor a temporary period of blocking, not the setup of a predominant AO- for the winter.

 

2. The PNA will likely be negative to possibly strongly negative.

 

3. The EPO is expected to be negative but rising thereafter.

 

It's still too soon to really have a good idea about December, at least for me, but taking the state of teleconnections forecast on the ensembles and excluding ENSO to avoid sample size issues, the following would be candidate analog years heading into and proceeding through at least part of December: 1986, 1991, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2003, 2006, and 2012. 2006 received, by far, the greatest weight. The composite temperature anomalies based on that set of years would closely resemble some of the recent CFSv2 forecasts for near coast-to-coast mild anomalies.

 

Again, December is still far out. But this early look might offer a first hint that the overall idea of a milder winter might have some merit. If that theme keeps coming up based on new data, my confidence in that idea would increase.

[Brian5671]

Joe BS Artie is going with 1993-94...1947-48 was unavailable...What...I don't gamble except for the lottery but I'd bet my house it won't be another 1993-94 winter around here...I don't think we'll get shut out either...he thinks the enso will be a neutral positive year...I mentioned last week the mei rose to -0.190 from -0.614...oni stayed the same and weekly 3.4 index is steady at -0.4...If the mei keeps rising the oni will follow...I'm hoping NDJ oni stays between -0.1 and -0.5 and neutral overall for the winter...all the neutral negative Decembers with an oni between -0.1 and -0.5 had a monthly negative AO...It is probably a coincidence but it will be interesting to watch if it happens again...

JB going for an average winter worst case and very cold best case-says his call is somewhere in between...his maps show slightly below to solidly below for a large part of the country.  He could be setting the table for a colossal bust if Don's thoughts turn out to be accurate...still early, but definitely some warning signs out there that this could be clunker for the most part.  

[WEATHER53]

Don-Back in mid Sept I did my winter outlook and went for Jan being as cold as -5.  It looks like you also think a 30 day period is going to be very cold.

[NEG NAO]

If one looks at the ensemble forecasts for mid-November, one finds:

 

1. The AO having gone negative; such a change is not inconsistent with a number of years that started the month with a strong AO+ set up. The big question concerns whether the blocking will be temporary. Odds favor a temporary period of blocking, not the setup of a predominant AO- for the winter.

 

2. The PNA will likely be negative to possibly strongly negative.

 

3. The EPO is expected to be negative but rising thereafter.

 

It's still too soon to really have a good idea about December, at least for me, but taking the state of teleconnections forecast on the ensembles and excluding ENSO to avoid sample size issues, the following would be candidate analog years heading into and proceeding through at least part of December: 1986, 1991, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2003, 2006, and 2012. 2006 received, by far, the greatest weight. The composite temperature anomalies based on that set of years would closely resemble some of the recent CFSv2 forecasts for near coast-to-coast mild anomalies.

 

Again, December is still far out. But this early look might offer a first hint that the overall idea of a milder winter might have some merit. If that theme keeps coming up based on new data, my confidence in that idea would increase.

December 2003 featured 19 inches of snow in NYC - you sure you want to include that in the list ?

[uncle W]

JB going for an average winter worst case and very cold best case-says his call is somewhere in between...his maps show slightly below to solidly below for a large part of the country.  He could be setting the table for a colossal bust if Don's thoughts turn out to be accurate...still early, but definitely some warning signs out there that this could be clunker for the most part.  

I saw his maps and he could be right...He wishes it's going to be like 1993-94...me too...it will probably be more like 1973-74...it could turn out like 2001-02 at the worse case scenario...We aren't getting an early season snowstorm this year...Maybe the last week of November might produce a little snow...last year's snowfall season would have been below average without the early November snowfall...Central Park had 26.1" but we know that a few dustings were missed...minus the 4.7" in November and you have a mediocre winter...I think we could be in for another one so it won't be a shutout...and if JB hits a grand slam it's good for him and good for us...

[Drz1111]

I saw his maps and he could be right...He wishes it's going to be like 1993-94...me too...it will probably be more like 1973-74...it could turn out like 2001-02 at the worse case scenario...We aren't getting an early season snowstorm this year...Maybe the last week of November might produce a little snow...last year's snowfall season would have been below average without the early November snowfall...Central Park had 26.1" but we know that a few dustings were missed...minus the 4.7" in November and you have a mediocre winter...I think we could be in for another one so it won't be a shutout...and if JB hits a grand slam it's good for him and good for us...

 

Every average winter minus a moderate snowfall would be a mediocre winter. 

[donsutherland1]

December 2003 featured 19 inches of snow in NYC - you sure you want to include that in the list ?

I'm referencing years that came up based on the forecast teleconnection pattern to illustrate the composite temperature anomaly. Each year had its own variability. Right now, it's too soon for me to really try to pin down December. I merely offer a hint that the patter than its forecast by mid-November often preceded a mild December. There were some exceptions. 2006 appears to be the strongest teleconnection analog right now.

[donsutherland1]

Don-Back in mid Sept I did my winter outlook and went for Jan being as cold as -5.  It looks like you also think a 30 day period is going to be very cold.

I don't know. This is just what's coming up early on and I didn't apply ENSO, yet. The possibility probably exists that some cold shots could be colder than those of the last few winters given that the Arctic has been having its coldest fall in a few years, even as the winter appears (in my view) to be headed for a milder than normal outcome.

[NEG NAO]

I don't know. This is just what's coming up early on and I didn't apply ENSO, yet. The possibility probably exists that some cold shots could be colder than those of the last few winters given that the Arctic has been having its coldest fall in a few years, even as the winter appears (in my view) to be headed for a milder than normal outcome.

I think the winter is going to be variable - meaning just like the last few weeks we are going to have some very chilly periods and some very mild ones - the thing that is very concerning though is this dry pattern we have been in even though many of the models keep overdoing the  precip amounts in the longer range the last couple of months and we end  up with  much less...