H2O Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 THE EURO WILL RISE AGAIN this run will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 dude, we've known your'e gay for years I tried to make the same joke. Nobody got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 this run will be telling ....us to eff of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I tried to make the same joke. Nobody got it. The only reason you are out is because the closet is not big enough to fit you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 ....us to eff of. the models are as good with snowstorms as the skins are with second half leads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 RR makes a lot of dick jokes... just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 RR makes a lot of dick jokes... just sayin Lol i am firmly in the closet, i have 5 kids . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Lol i am firmly in the closet, i have 5 kids . Randy has two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Lol i am firmly in the closet, i have 5 kids .When did you and your husband adopt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 RR makes a lot of dick jokes... just sayin RR actually stands for Richard Ramsbottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Maybe when you play the Ravens . Damn, forgot about that. Guess I'll just have to take it and grin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Can we all just stop with the DT woofing talk. He isn't a great forecaster at all. Why keep talking about him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Can we all just stop with the DT woofing talk. He isn't a great forecaster at all. Why keep talking about him ERRROS!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Can we all just stop with the DT woofing talk. He isn't a great forecaster at all. Why keep talking about him ALEET ALEET! DAVE THINKS DAVE SUCKS ALEET ALEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 ERRROS!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I can't keep all the rules for banter thread straight. No DT talk. Got it. Obsessive homophobic joking, that's okay. Will make a note of it. Sorry to offend with non-homophobic banter. Carry on with your various penis-related jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm curious -- if you go through past events, Jan 2011 for example, what model picked it up first, did others catch on, did one or all lose it, only for it to come back? I feel like this is a never ending repetitive loop, we as MA'ers are constantly going through with every. damn. event. that shows up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 I can't keep all the rules for banter thread straight. No DT talk. Got it. Obsessive homophobic joking, that's okay. Will make a note of it. Sorry to offend with non-homophobic banter. Carry on with your various penis-related jokes. The first rule of banter thread is not to speak about banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm curious -- if you go through past events, Jan 2011 for example, what model picked it up first, did others catch on, did one or all lose it, only for it to come back? I feel like this is a never ending repetitive loop, we as MA'ers are constantly going through with every. damn. event. that shows up on the models. Because it pretty much is the situation every time. When model is on an island compared to every other model and ensembles, there's a reason to be highly skeptical. Even if that model is the DT-approved World's Greatest Computer Model EVER. Right now, when the shortwave is still ~96-120 hours away, the ensembles are still the way to go. It's a fact that an ensemble mean will be the best forecast at Day 4+ more times than not. When we're inside 4 days, and especially inside 3 days, then put your faith in the operational runs. If say, the 0z Sunday (or maybe 12z tomorrow) Euro still has a big storm and everything else is showing a weak wave like the GFS, that will get my attention. Until then, it's best to take a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm curious -- if you go through past events, Jan 2011 for example, what model picked it up first, did others catch on, did one or all lose it, only for it to come back? I feel like this is a never ending repetitive loop, we as MA'ers are constantly going through with every. damn. event. that shows up on the models. It's also a matter of too much information being looked at by a majority of wrong people, myself included. Because we can look at every model run we are quick to latch on to anything that looks the best without understanding why. It gets to be too much cause we look at stuff for days and days hoping it will give us what we want. Also to piggyback on what captain air force said() most of our weather comes from complex setups which the models have a hard time handling. Very rarely do we get easy ones to watch a la 09-10 where it was pretty much a given. When those happen it seems that the models do a good job showing a storm and hanging onto it for the whole duration with minor jumps. Lots of chess pieces means lots of different outcomes and it takes the models a few days to sort out the likely one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Very rarely do we get easy ones to watch a la 09-10 where it was pretty much a given. When those happen it seems that the models do a good job showing a storm and hanging onto it for the whole duration with minor jumps. Lots of chess pieces means lots of different outcomes and it takes the models a few days to sort out the likely one. The Dec 09 storm and the Feb 5-6,2010 were just like a dream. Unreal ensemble support at Days 5+...even like 8-9 days out. It was if the universe was saying "this WILL happen no matter what". Every run was so similar to the previous runs, minor differences at most each time (although each difference seemed to be to our benefit snow-wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 The Dec 09 storm and the Feb 5-6,2010 were just like a dream. Unreal ensemble support at Days 5+...even like 8-9 days out. It was if the universe was saying "this WILL happen no matter what". Every run was so similar to the previous runs, minor differences at most each time (although each difference seemed to be to our benefit snow-wise). And the hangover from that winter still happens here all the time. The thinking is that because the models did so well that winter they should always be able to. We've now seen how that has worked out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Because it pretty much is the situation every time. When model is on an island compared to every other model and ensembles, there's a reason to be highly skeptical. Even if that model is the DT-approved World's Greatest Computer Model EVER. Right now, when the shortwave is still ~96-120 hours away, the ensembles are still the way to go. It's a fact that an ensemble mean will be the best forecast at Day 4+ more times than not. When we're inside 4 days, and especially inside 3 days, then put your faith in the operational runs. If say, the 0z Sunday (or maybe 12z tomorrow) Euro still has a big storm and everything else is showing a weak wave like the GFS, that will get my attention. Until then, it's best to take a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles. Thanks for the response! I understand how it all works, I just feel like we are ALWAYS going through this. 7-day threat, weenie hopes escalate, then die, then start to slowly rise as we get within day 3, then from there its usually a huge bust. You'd think we would have learned our lesson by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The models weren't perfect with all of them that year though. The Jan 30 storm.......my forecast for Saturday at 7 AM Friday morning was for partly cloudy, 0% chance of snow, and by Sat afternoon there was about 7 inches of new snow at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The models weren't perfect with all of them that year though. The Jan 30 storm.......my forecast for Saturday at 7 AM Friday morning was for partly cloudy, 0% chance of snow, and by Sat afternoon there was about 7 inches of new snow at my house. Let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Woooo 59 minute rule! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 And the hangover from that winter still happens here all the time. The thinking is that because the models did so well that winter they should always be able to. We've now seen how that has worked out for us. The strong blocking present in the form of a strongly negative AO and NAO gave lots more wiggle room and that's one reason the modes were so much better with those storms, especially the feb one than during most storm threats. Heck, I was even bullish on the pattern and storm, how often does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Let it go. I have no idea what that even means, but if I you are referring to next week, I can assure you that I let that go the moment it was mentioned. Regardless, I think I can handle things without help. Thanks all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 I picked all my peppers today, makes me sad. The garden is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 I picked all my peppers today, makes me sad. The garden is dead.One day closer to spring. And our next crippling snow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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