North Balti Zen Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:02 PM, snowfan said: The mountains of WV and SW PA are so much closer. That said, Vermont IS beautiful country. In all seriousness, it is the beauty of Vermont that will draw me and make me work to make this a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 2:53 PM, Bob Chill said: 0z Euro control gives us 16-20" wed-thurs next week. Is the control run sort of like the pinky-up effeminate Frenchy version of the DGEX or something? On 11/19/2013 at 3:03 PM, H2O said: Tday staples or GTFO: turkey(you do a tofu one you can DIAF) gravy dressing or stuffing(depending on your location) mashed taters green beans sweet potatoes(candied yams or whatever you call them) pumpkin and apple pies Squash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:07 PM, WxUSAF said: Is the control run sort of like the pinky-up effeminate Frenchy version of the DGEX or something? If i remember correctly it has much lower resolution. On rare occasions it has sniffed out a big storm first. The abc123456789 guy from the NY forum swears by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:09 PM, ravensrule said: If i remember correctly it has much lower resolution. On rare occasions it has sniffed out a big storm first. The abc123456789 guy from the NY forum swears by it. It is essentially a less skillful version of the OP run...I'm not sure what the fascination with it is. Its an ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Oh, this sounds like fun. Lets all dream about the Tday foods that will make us fat..... Turkey Mashed Potatoes Stuffing - not that weak boxed sh!t and it better have sausage in it or GTFO cranberry sauce gravy - see stuffing above....no weak mix from a package. do it right or don't do it at all. sigh pumpkin roll - if you've never had it, get it. fresh yeast rolls - again, no fake stuff (e.g. pillsbury) sweet potatoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Here is your answer: http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: It is essentially a less skillful version of the OP run...I'm not sure what the fascination with it is. Its an ensemble member. Why does it seem like this member always shows the biggest storm?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 IIRC the control is part of the ens suite. Here's the greek version: Quote The ECMWF weather prediction model is run 51 times from slightly different initial conditions. One forecast, called the EPS control forecast, is run from the operational ECMWF analysis. 50 additional integrations, the perturbed members, are made from slightly different initial conditions which are designed to represent the uncertainties inherent in the operational analysis. The initial perturbations are generated using the singular vector technique. Edit: ninja'd Any and all posts irt the control run should only be put in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:13 PM, ravensrule said: Why does it seem like this member always shows the biggest storm?. We would need to see all 51 members to make that call. For my sanity's sake, I never want access to all 51 individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:14 PM, Bob Chill said: IIRC the control is part of the ens suite. Here's the greek version: Edit: ninja'd Any and all posts irt the control run should only be put in the banter thread. And here i thought you were serious about us getting 16-20" next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:12 PM, snowfan said: fresh yeast rolls - again, no fake stuff (e.g. pillsbury) I make fresh rolls for Turkey Day. I love them, but most everyone else doesn't eat them with me. I'm ok with that, because then more for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:17 PM, mitchnick said: anything for chicks you dog!!! Why do you have to get into a man's position preferences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:17 PM, mitchnick said: anything for chicks you dog!!! Yea, a middle aged helpless snow weenie brings supermodel quality women to my door in droves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:13 PM, ravensrule said: Why does it seem like this member always shows the biggest storm?. Probably because it only gets posted when it shows a massive storm. So anytime we are forced to look at its output, it's showing a snowstorm. Selective viewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:12 PM, snowfan said: Oh, this sounds like fun. Lets all dream about the Tday foods that will make us fat..... Turkey Mashed Potatoes Stuffing - not that weak boxed sh!t and it better have sausage in it or GTFO cranberry sauce gravy - see stuffing above....no weak mix from a package. do it right or don't do it at all. sigh pumpkin roll - if you've never had it, get it. fresh yeast rolls - again, no fake stuff (e.g. pillsbury) sweet potatoes Add some corn-pudding and mince-meat pie and I'm down. Oh, a glass of Shenandoah's Pride egg-nog for afterwards..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:14 PM, Bob Chill said: IIRC the control is part of the ens suite. Here's the greek version: Edit: ninja'd Any and all posts irt the control run should only be put in the banter thread. there are still more perturbed members in this forum than in the Euro ensemble suite......sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:15 PM, Bob Chill said: We would need to see all 51 members to make that call. For my sanity's sake, I never want access to all 51 individual members. Might not be able to see the maps, but you can see the precip forecast and temperatures for each member on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 3:37 PM, ORH_wxman said: Probably because it only gets posted when it shows a massive storm. So anytime we are forced to look at its output, it's showing a snowstorm. Selective viewing. Lol makes sense, thanks Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I'm going to start posting full control run analysis 2 times a day for the remainder of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 2:50 PM, H2O said: Yup. If it isn't being served on Tday I always tell the cook that the turkey was dry and the mashed taters were too creamy. Don't care if it is my mom or not. Nope! Never had it or had on Thanksgiving Day. Must be one of those weird southern dishes you all eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 12z GFS 168hr prog. Don't worry guys, I've locked that in. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:21 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm going to start posting full control run analysis 2 times a day for the remainder of the winter. In that case, this forum will have a lot of perturbed members! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:21 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm going to start posting full control run analysis 2 times a day for the remainder of the winter. your change of style didn't last that long....but we've all become whores to the weenie culture of the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:25 PM, mitchnick said: your change of style didn't last that long....but we've all become whores to the weenie culture of the board O contraire....i'm posting torches too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:24 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z GFS 168hr prog. Don't worry guys, I've locked that in. Book it. Surface is below freezing n-w too! Hand...wavering...over...all in button.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 GFS is getting closer, track is not bad, cold air not locked in though yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:23 PM, Aviationdave said: Nope! Never had it or had on Thanksgiving Day. Must be one of those weird southern dishes you all eat. people from NJ have no culinary tastes On 11/19/2013 at 4:24 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z GFS 168hr prog. Don't worry guys, I've locked that in. Book it. stop making me go look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:37 PM, H2O said: stop making me go look Yea, like you wouldn't look anyway. Model hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:37 PM, H2O said: people from NJ have no culinary tastes Dont talk about your family that way, that isnt nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:42 PM, Aviationdave said: Dont talk about your family that way, that isnt nice part of my family. and we no longer speak of them because they are Giants fans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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