HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Gardner, MA is 30/10 Yeow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Gardner, MA is 30/10 Yeow Shockingly, I'm still among one of the cooler spots this evening. 29.1/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 24/17, cold. Saranac Lake already down to 17F at 7:50pm. Going to be well into the single digits by morning there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 my concerns are 2 fold. Lack of any precip last few months and a never ending blowtorch (heck the cold at the end of October underperformed)....indexes starting to go in the crapper. (PNA, AO NAO etc) Reminds me exactly of how our most putrid winters have started...and those were in the face of decent winter predictions.... This, the dry weather has me getting nervous. Next thing we will be forever waiting the pattern change that never unfold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 That was a pretty chilly last 8 days of October. It knocked most stations down to a non torch 1.5 or so..give or take a couple of tenths. BOS was still warm thanks to its location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Maybe its no one in particular, but more the overall mood. Go scan some of the October threads. There was a lot of optimism and discussion for wire-to-wire winters and a quick starting winter in November. Will and Scott were all over a possible November torch while some others were not going that route. Heck take any Blizz post on any given day in October, lol. He was certain the first widespread snowfall was coming between Oct 25 and Nov 5 and it was off to the races after that... but I guess he probably didn't even believe that himself, haha. As an aside....Still feeling good on the 2002 evolution, Jerry? this place is blind optimism central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 my concerns are 2 fold. Lack of any precip last few months and a never ending blowtorch (heck the cold at the end of October underperformed)....indexes starting to go in the crapper. (PNA, AO NAO etc) Reminds me exactly of how our most putrid winters have started...and those were in the face of decent winter predictions.... This, the dry weather has me getting nervous. Next thing we will be forever waiting the pattern change that never unfold.... That's the worst...it's coming! Just wait, Jan will rock, no, Feb will, and then acceptance that it's just not comin'. Seen in before, will see it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Toasters ropes and bridges this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 24/17, cold. Saranac Lake already down to 17F at 7:50pm. Going to be well into the single digits by morning there. Wide range of temps this evening. IJD and the CT River Valley is almost 10° warmer than the hills. I won't mention the normally warmer coast areas, lol. SLK is down to 16° now. Cold has a different feel as Ginxy said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 That's the worst...it's coming! Just wait, Jan will rock, no, Feb will, and then acceptance that it's just not comin'. Seen in before, will see it again. LOL yea not like the past two decades have been full of exceptional snow seasons or epic storms, most winters are exactly as you describe....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 That was a pretty chilly last 8 days of October. It knocked most stations down to a non torch 1.5 or so..give or take a couple of tenths. BOS was still warm thanks to its location. BTV was still +3.6 on the month, but if you take away the background +2 we have been averaging since 2007, then it's only +1.6 and more in line with the SNE stations, lol. I still can't believe that this area has been averaging +2 since 2007, at least on that map Will posted in one of the threads recently. It's one thing to think/feel like it's been that warm, but to actually do that over 6 years is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Wide range of temps this evening. IJD and the CT River Valley is almost 10° warmer than the hills. I won't mention the normally warmer coast areas, lol. SLK is down to 16° now. Cold has a different feel as Ginxy said. Yeah it feels similar to me as far as last week, but it's just a winter cold feel (i mean it's -10C at 850). It'll be interesting to see if I can beat last week's 18F low. It's not just radiational cooling cold, but the highs in the 30s and below freezing at 5pm type cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 LOL yea not like the past two decades have been full of exceptional snow seasons or epic storms, most winters are exactly as you describe....... The frequency of large storms has been ridiculous the past 13 years. Ever since March 2001 storm, its like a top 10 snowfall rolls through every other year these days, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 The frequency of large storms has been ridiculous the past 13 years. Ever since March 2001 storm, its like a top 10 snowfall rolls through every other year these days, haha. there is definetly a spoiled factor around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 LOL yea not like the past two decades have been full of exceptional snow seasons or epic storms, most winters are exactly as you describe....... you speak the truth, and even in those winters there were lengthy torches. The passage of time makes folks remember then as wall to wall cold and snow, but that's pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 BTV was still +3.6 on the month, but if you take away the background +2 we have been averaging since 2007, then it's only +1.6 and more in line with the SNE stations, lol. I still can't believe that this area has been averaging +2 since 2007, at least on that map Will posted in one of the threads recently. It's one thing to think/feel like it's been that warm, but to actually do that over 6 years is remarkable. Same deal here. We finished October +3.5 as well, but you're right, +2 seems to be the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 The frequency of large storms has been ridiculous the past 13 years. Ever since March 2001 storm, its like a top 10 snowfall rolls through every other year these days, haha.MehBeen a while here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 you speak the truth, and even in those winters there were lengthy torches. The passage of time makes folks remember then as wall to wall cold and snow, but that's pretty rare.We live in SNE with you living in the southern part of that. Expectations need to be realistic when the wall to wall winters happen it is cherished. As many found out last year a crappy start means little. Hopefully everyone remembers what 2010 began like and how the posts here were dire with even the best jumping ship like lemmings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Meh Been a while here Two years ago right now you just finished a 1 in 100 year event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Two years ago right now you just finished a 1 in 100 year event.Yes it was very odd. But it was 22" of fluffGive me a crippling storm for this area. We were driving around the same day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Yes it was very odd. But it was 22" of fluff Give me a crippling storm for this area. We were driving around the same day Well the discussion wasn't about crippling...just record snows And you realize you just "meh'd" a 22-inch October snowfall right? Just bustin' ya.How about the ice storm of 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Yes it was very odd. But it was 22" of fluff Give me a crippling storm for this area. We were driving around the same day been a great south of pike run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Does anyone know if there is a dataset online for the SAI (Snow Advance Index)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 been a great south of pike run, lol Our last top ten storm up here was March 6-7, 2011....we had 27" in Stowe while BTV picked up over 25" and made it the third largest on record there. That was one QPF bomb of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 BTV was still +3.6 on the month, but if you take away the background +2 we have been averaging since 2007, then it's only +1.6 and more in line with the SNE stations, lol. I still can't believe that this area has been averaging +2 since 2007, at least on that map Will posted in one of the threads recently. It's one thing to think/feel like it's been that warm, but to actually do that over 6 years is remarkable. Its been that way in the winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 We live in SNE with you living in the southern part of that. Expectations need to be realistic when the wall to wall winters happen it is cherished. As many found out last year a crappy start means little. Hopefully everyone remembers what 2010 began like and how the posts here were dire with even the best jumping ship like lemmings. I've seen enough winters and read enough med/long range forecasts to know that it's unlikely for anyone to cancel winter or predict a memorable one with any real degree fo certainty. I'm interested in reading about indexes, analogs, and correlations, but the science hasn't gotten to a point where I can be excited or disappointed this far ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Its been that way in the winter too. What's amazing to me is that BTV and even MVL (under 30 year period of record though) seem to have the warmest departures relative to normal month after month in New England. It almost makes me think something is wrong with the normals...because MPV and 1V4 are both long term sites that always come in with half the departures, even with mean temps in line with what one would expect given elevation. So maybe we are just that warm in north-central and western VT, but the departures don't make climo sense to me sometimes. Anyway, the F-6 stats say we average +1 to +2, which is very warm for a 6 year average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I've seen enough winters and read enough med/long range forecasts to know that it's unlikely for anyone to cancel winter or predict a memorable one with any real degree fo certainty. I'm interested in reading about indexes, analogs, and correlations, but the science hasn't gotten to a point where I can be excited or disappointed this far ahead of time.Very true, lol I see my quote here I mean't 2012 but wrote 2010. The first half of Dec 2012 was full of Debra posts then the wormed turned. Like I said the ghost of Nov 11 has haunted quite a few around these parts. I am sure AK residents are saying this fall has no resemblance to that record breaking fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 What's amazing to me is that BTV and even MVL (under 30 year period of record though) seem to have the warmest departures relative to normal month after month in New England. It almost makes me think something is wrong with the normals...because MPV and 1V4 are both long term sites that always come in with half the departures, even with mean temps in line with what one would expect given elevation. So maybe we are just that warm in north-central and western VT, but the departures don't make climo sense to me sometimes. Anyway, the F-6 stats say we average +1 to +2, which is very warm for a 6 year average. How well are BTV and MVL at radiating vs MPV and 1V4? During warm period, better radiating sites often put up smaller positive departures. It could also be some quirkiness int he averages, but I've frequently noticed that during a lot of those warmer periods (but with dry weather), ORH will torch more than anyone else and the radiating sites will get low enough min temps to offset some of the wamth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 What happens to those anamolies if 2010 is taken out. Seems that year skewed your aves a bit PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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