CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Except for our region and the southeast US...where we had a notable lack of warming from about 1930-1996. So we were kind of "due" to catch up to some of the other areas like the plains and western U.S...and there is no better setup to do it in than a +AMO, and then even better to get a -PDO with it. Oh I'm just talking as a whole regarding Earth, but yeah clearly some regions have had some accelerated warmth while others not so much. It's why I always caution people not to be so IMBY centric, but that's tough to do in this day and age when everything is hyped including the lovefest for tying every strong storm or heavy precip event to climate change. The whole thing sucks because it's too polarizing of a topic. People either put you in the category of for or against with little in between. Unfortunately, when you do that the science takes a back seat. It does seem like we are making some headway in allowing some uncertainty and backtracking to the original thoughts over 15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Once we see the AMO transition over to the negative phase, which may actually begin in the later parts of this decade (just by going on the average phase shift) IMO we'll definitely see a below-average temp regime start taking over more...that period may not be as impressive as what we saw for warmth but all we can do is speculate on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Oh I'm just talking as a whole regarding Earth, but yeah clearly some regions have had some accelerated warmth while others not so much. It's why I always caution people not to be so IMBY centric, but that's tough to do in this day and age when everything is hyped including the lovefest for tying every strong storm or heavy precip event to climate change. The whole thing sucks because it's too polarizing of a topic. People either put you in the category of for or against with little in between. Unfortunately, when you do that the science takes a back seat. It does seem like we are making some headway in allowing some uncertainty and backtracking to the original thoughts over 15 years ago.excellent post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 So it cooled this year? Not going to get into a climate change discussion, background warming is not unprecedented. First, I appreciate your posts, so don't take any of this as an attack. I agree with a lot of what you post, but don't have any sort of expertise to chime in and support you or refute you. A lot of the mets who post seem conservative in their overall approach. They know what they know, and understand what they don't know. It would do them no good to go out on a limb with their forecasts without a solid reason to do so. There has been a warm trend lately ( past couple years) along with an overall global warming thing that has support. It's difficult to separate what is just a cyclical thing, and what is an overall trend. I get annoyed by the folks crying "torch" all the time, but I don't see enough evidence to refute them, or agree with them. As for internet discussion flame wars, I usually avoid them. Pete and Kevin embraced them. Hope you don't follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 make a forecast, you are a peanut gallery critic, reminds me of the two old guys on the muppets, you and the troll. Keep them personal attacks coming. You are indeed numero uno in that regard on this forum. No doubt congratulations are in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Oh I'm just talking as a whole regarding Earth, but yeah clearly some regions have had some accelerated warmth while others not so much. It's why I always caution people not to be so IMBY centric, but that's tough to do in this day and age when everything is hyped including the lovefest for tying every strong storm or heavy precip event to climate change. The whole thing sucks because it's too polarizing of a topic. People either put you in the category of for or against with little in between. Unfortunately, when you do that the science takes a back seat. It does seem like we are making some headway in allowing some uncertainty and backtracking to the original thoughts over 15 years ago. Media/politics are an awful influence when it comes to weather and climate. While there are certainly a ton of great mets out there who forecast for the public, the big time media drivers unfortunately screw it up and skew it downward so much. CNN should be banned from ever discussing weather/climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 First, I appreciate your posts, so don't take any of this as an attack. I agree with a lot of what you post, but don't have any sort of expertise to chime in and support you or refute you. A lot of the mets who post seem conservative in their overall approach. They know what they know, and understand what they don't know. It would do them no good to go out on a limb with their forecasts without a solid reason to do so. There has been a warm trend lately ( past couple years) along with an overall global warming thing that has support. It's difficult to separate what is just a cyclical thing, and what is an overall trend. I get annoyed by the folks crying "torch" all the time, but I don't see enough evidence to refute them, or agree with them. As for internet discussion flame wars, I usually avoid them. Pete and Kevin embraced them. Hope you don't follow suit. I disagree with this assertion. I almost certainly thing warming/cooling is mainly cycle driven, however, that cycle can also be influenced and this is where humans come into play. Ever since the Earth has formed it has gone through cycles of being hot and cold (ice ages)...these cycles are a natural part of our system. During this warm phase we have been in, it was likely enhanced and we ca see this b/c the warming this time around was much more extreme. However, this has leveled off quite a bit now for over a decade. What will be interesting to see how our climate responds when we see a major shift of some of the major global oscillations such as the PDO/AMO. Given how the Earth if over 3/4 water, our atmosphere, climate, weather, is driven by the ocean. The warming though has certainly altered several aspects of our system though. For example, the Hadley cell has actually expanded poleward more according to various research. However, if we do cool down with the AMO change, does this mean we will see the Hadley cell compress back to what it was like when first discovered? Another issue is, our data is just so limited it's impossible to gauge a judgement. Hadley cell, NAO, AO, AMO, PDO, ENSO, etc...these are all still relatively new discoveries and the data is so sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Keep them personal attacks coming. You are indeed numero uno in that regard on this forum. No doubt congratulations are in order.calling you peanut gallery is a personal attack? Lol sensitive? Call them as I see them bro. You can't get Criticism if all you do is critize right? I put what I believe out there, justify it, right sometimes wrong others. I participate with backup, not hype, take it like a man when I am proved wrong by guys like Scooter, Ryan, Phil, Will because they lay it out there too. Guys like you who take pot shots without ever laying it out deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Once we see the AMO transition over to the negative phase, which may actually begin in the later parts of this decade (just by going on the average phase shift) IMO we'll definitely see a below-average temp regime start taking over more...that period may not be as impressive as what we saw for warmth but all we can do is speculate on that. This is likely what will happen. More cold in a -AMO, but it won't offset the warmth in the +AMO regime...this is how the trend line stays positive, but you still go through distinct cycles. Regardless, its a good Vegas bet right now to stay with positive departures for our region until we cycle into another phase of the Atlantic...especially our summer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 I disagree with this assertion. I almost certainly thing warming/cooling is mainly cycle driven, however, that cycle can also be influenced and this is where humans come into play. Ever since the Earth has formed it has gone through cycles of being hot and cold (ice ages)...these cycles are a natural part of our system. During this warm phase we have been in, it was likely enhanced and we ca see this b/c the warming this time around was much more extreme. However, this has leveled off quite a bit now for over a decade. What will be interesting to see how our climate responds when we see a major shift of some of the major global oscillations such as the PDO/AMO. Given how the Earth if over 3/4 water, our atmosphere, climate, weather, is driven by the ocean. The warming though has certainly altered several aspects of our system though. For example, the Hadley cell has actually expanded poleward more according to various research. However, if we do cool down with the AMO change, does this mean we will see the Hadley cell compress back to what it was like when first discovered? Another issue is, our data is just so limited it's impossible to gauge a judgement. Hadley cell, NAO, AO, AMO, PDO, ENSO, etc...these are all still relatively new discoveries and the data is so sparse. Because there is a climate change thread elsewhere, I'm not going to keep at this. It's just that I've seen the global warming stuff too, and I tend to believe that humans have changed the atmosphere and sensible weather but we don't have a handle on how it affects IMBY stuff, AN stretches in a particular region, and medium range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 First, I appreciate your posts, so don't take any of this as an attack. I agree with a lot of what you post, but don't have any sort of expertise to chime in and support you or refute you. A lot of the mets who post seem conservative in their overall approach. They know what they know, and understand what they don't know. It would do them no good to go out on a limb with their forecasts without a solid reason to do so. There has been a warm trend lately ( past couple years) along with an overall global warming thing that has support. It's difficult to separate what is just a cyclical thing, and what is an overall trend. I get annoyed by the folks crying "torch" all the time, but I don't see enough evidence to refute them, or agree with them. As for internet discussion flame wars, I usually avoid them. Pete and Kevin embraced them. Hope you don't follow suit. You are correct but see my response above to Scoobs. I am not going to let things slide. You might not be aware of the concerted efforts by some to prune our forum either. I am, but I never will get in a flame war with respectable posters but the trolls are not respectable. You may mistake sone of the ball busting back and forth as wars too but certainly the guys on the other side of that understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 This is likely what will happen. More cold in a -AMO, but it won't offset the warmth in the +AMO regime...this is how the trend line stays positive, but you still go through distinct cycles. Regardless, its a good Vegas bet right now to stay with positive departures for our region until we cycle into another phase of the Atlantic...especially our summer temps. It's pretty difficult to find a summer here which was below average as a whole during +AMO phases. I had a MS paint sheet once of every single AMO JJA period and the summer temp anomalies and I think it was like 90%+ summers were above-average. I don't think I have it anymore though as alot of that stuff I had was lost when the hard drive crapped out on my old laptop like 4-5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 calling you peanut gallery is a personal attack? Lol sensitive? Call them as I see them bro. You can't get Criticism ism if all you do is critize right? I put what I believe out there, justify it, right sometimes wrong others. I participate with backup, not hype, take it like a man when I am proved wrong by guys like Scooter, Ryan, Phil, Will because they lay it out there too. Guys like you who take pot shots without ever laying it out deserve it. Laying out what ? A constant barrage of King Cold when winter approaches ? And during the summer your oft quoted " one helluva way to run a heat wave" when its 89 instead of 91 ? Talk about living in a glass house LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Because there is a climate change thread elsewhere, I'm not going to keep at this. It's just that I've seen the global warming stuff too, and I tend to believe that humans have changed the atmosphere and sensible weather but we don't have a handle on how it affects IMBY stuff, AN stretches in a particular region, and medium range forecasts. I really don't think we know enough to say that we have changed the atmosphere and sensible weather. The period we have for comparison is just too small. While we have some great knowledge of the atmosphere, do we really know a great deal about it hundreds of years ago? We have ice core data and what not but how much does that actually tell? How can we say tornado frequency is increasing when data only goes back to the 1950's and you have to get well into the 70's...even early 80's before it even begins to become reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 I used to hate it and still do that it's so freakin hard to get a below normal month up here... but once I started considering +2 as the new normal, it makes it a more level playing field, haha. You can see since the PDO flip, the upper plains to northern Rockies and PAC NW have cooled relative to the 1981-2010 average...and the warmest spot in the entire country has been New England. -PDO/+AMO is the warmest combo for us up here in terms of ocean regimes. Its akin to the late 40s and early 50s up here. Wow... pretty telling. Also shows why I am a little biased, but for good reason for us locally. Looks like there's a reason why I consider +2 the new normal up here, lol. This is a great pattern for the west and upper midwest... the long term trend though here until that changes it looks like it'll be warmer in the means. Hopefully we buck that trend soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 I really don't think we know enough to say that we have changed the atmosphere and sensible weather. The period we have for comparison is just too small. While we have some great knowledge of the atmosphere, do we really know a great deal about it hundreds of years ago? We have ice core data and what not but how much does that actually tell? How can we say tornado frequency is increasing when data only goes back to the 1950's and you have to get well into the 70's...even early 80's before it even begins to become reliable. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Laying out what ? A constant barrage of King Cold when winter approaches ? And during the summer your oft quoted " one helluva way to run a heat wave" when its 89 instead of 91 ? Talk about living in a glass house LOL.Scooby do I love you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 See what I mean by polarizing? Alright well no need to have a beer fueled weenie war on a Friday night. Whatever happens, happens lets just hope we all grab a decent winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 It's pretty difficult to find a summer here which was below average as a whole during +AMO phases. I had a MS paint sheet once of every single AMO JJA period and the summer temp anomalies and I think it was like 90%+ summers were above-average. I don't think I have it anymore though as alot of that stuff I had was lost when the hard drive crapped out on my old laptop like 4-5 years ago. Well I'm talking more decadal AMO phase, but you are right that there is monthly data for AMO (just like PDO) and it can temporarily go negative within an overall positive regime...we saw that happen in the summer of 2009 when we had a very cool summer. The overall decadal AMO regime went positive in the mid 1990s and likely will stay there until about 2020-2025. Though its possible we may have peaked and are starting the slow descent...only observations over the next several years will tell the story. Regardless, the ocean teleconnections can give us a very good base temperature distribution to go off of regardless of what you believe about climate change. We have enough information to see how these teleconnections and cycles affect our climate. They (the ocean cycles) actually tend to be strongest in their influence in the summer....while the atmospheric teleconnections like the NAO/AO tend to have their largest influence in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 See what I mean by polarizing? Alright well no need to have a beer fueled weenie war on a Friday night. Whatever happens, happens lets just hope we all grab a decent winter.wish I was drinking, working at 6 am, screwed up my knee now can't sleep. Snow in the interior NH els Sunday Night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Agreed. The whole topic is an incredible debate though and something that needs to be discussed and dealt with. However, I feel the whole issue is just debated about the complete wrong way and how it's gone about is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Wow... pretty telling. Also shows why I am a little biased, but for good reason for us locally. Looks like there's a reason why I consider +2 the new normal up here, lol. This is a great pattern for the west and upper midwest... the long term trend though here until that changes it looks like it'll be warmer in the means. Hopefully we buck that trend soon! Yeah bet positive for now up there...but it will flip at some point. Obviously the $64,000 is when. I mean, don;t expect 1970 up there when it does, but it's not going to keep going +2...it simply isn't sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 wish I was drinking, working at 6 am, screwed up my knee now can't sleep. Snow in the interior NH els Sunday Night? I should be in bed too...gotta leave for work at 6:15 blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Waiting for the first scientific paper on link between GW and Blizz 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Scooby do I love you Good night Mr Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Regardless, its a good Vegas bet right now to stay with positive departures for our region until we cycle into another phase of the Atlantic...especially our summer temps. Yeah that's all this started out as, lol. Its not a hard bet to go a little warm without any real solid signal of a big change. You know the weather is boring when a discussion on whether or not November will be above normal or below normal, turns into a global warming flame war. I think the main point wasn't about global or even national stuff... New England or the northeast. We've been warmer up here on average relative to normal, can't deny it. Ginxy, your summer call in late July or early August was awesome. You nailed it, dude. We'll see what happens this month. I'm just going to lean on the warmer side for now...not sure if that's "conservative" or not, but if folks consider it a conservative call to go warmer than normal, that means they are acknowledging the warmer background regime we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Yeah bet positive for now up there...but it will flip at some point. Obviously the $64,000 is when. I mean, don;t expect 1970 up there when it does, but it's not going to keep going +2...it simply isn't sustainable. I remember back on eastern there was always some good discussion and debate regarding the AMO and when it may flip. Seemed like many believed the flip would occur sometime towards the end of this decade. Last winter we saw negative monthly values pop up for the first time since 2008-2009 and recent trends in the SSTA configuring suggest we may see some negatives this winter again. Anyways though, I think it's fair to say we've certainly see the AMO peak and it's slowly on the descending end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 You are correct but see my response above to Scoobs. I am not going to let things slide. You might not be aware of the concerted efforts by some to prune our forum either. I am, but I never will get in a flame war with respectable posters but the trolls are not respectable. You may mistake sone of the ball busting back and forth as wars too but certainly the guys on the other side of that understand. I get the ball busting. In real life, that's what I do all the time around people I know. I've also found that it's not worth getting into discussions with some people. Maybe I'm missing something about the pruning, but most people recognize trolls as trolls (I don't mean you), and I've never been able to convince one to stop. They eventually get ignored by reasonable people, or removed, and the folks who get sucked into arguing with them somethimes get caught up in the sh!I storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 See what I mean by polarizing? Alright well no need to have a beer fueled weenie war on a Friday night. Whatever happens, happens lets just hope we all grab a decent winter. Agreed, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Waiting for the first scientific paper on link between GW and Blizz 13 Which is why GW is such a pain in the a$$. One storm, one AN or BN period in one region is not necessarily linked to GW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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