General Obs and Banter Away - Will It Be A November to Remember?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Maybe Monday in the hills?

Baby steps.

[powderfreak]

Definitely. Feel like the combination of AGW and +AMO is really helping skew things. When in doubt... go work.

Thankfully we haven't been "so warm" that it's impacting our snow. In fact, the incidence of extreme precip events is increasing pretty significantly here the northeast so that is probably helping us with snow.

Yeah I feel like there's been a noticeable increase in big QPF events, especially winter storms.

I think it's amazing that BTV has 120+ years of record, and like 5 of the top 10 snowstorms have happened in the last 13 years.

I'm not sure if it's a function of more rigorous measuring (ie I know they do every 6 hours at the WFO) vs old storms that may have just been "put a ruler in it when it stops snowing" type measurements....but there has been an increase in large snowstorms starting with the 2000-2001 winter.

It's almost to the point where you expect a HECS each winter, lol. But that may also be that it seems like every big snowstorm some location breaks a record of some sort (making it a historical storm).

[Allsnow]

I see Toronto Blizz is making his way around the subforums in search of cold and snow.

He has def expanded his search this year

[ORH_wxman]

The Earth has warmed, but these recent warm regimes aren't a coincidence to +AMOs either. Throw in a few Ninas too for warm summers.

 

 

You can see since the PDO flip, the upper plains to northern Rockies and PAC NW have cooled relative to the 1981-2010 average...and the warmest spot in the entire country has been New England. -PDO/+AMO is the warmest combo for us up here in terms of ocean regimes. Its akin to the late 40s and early 50s up here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look at the distribution resemblance to 1948-1953...obviously there is underlying warming going on but that +AMO/-PDO has a distinct look.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Ginx is to cold what LitchfieldLibations was to warm. Blinders on all the way. It is fun to watch

You are more of a global warming guy than any Met here but it's fun to watch. Did I lie when I said this year CT five above five below? Funny thing is except for NE most of the rest of the country is below normal for the year. Look it up.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that's telling right there. Take away the furnace niño '09-'10 in the west and it's cold.

[Ginx snewx]

Facts ouch

Climate it changes

[Ginx snewx]

.

As the good doctor stated he is the board "Frigidaire". The entertainment value of his repartee with other posters who disagree with him is priceless.

I called for a torch July above Normal October while you sat in the peanut gallery with the NJ trolls, pony up and make a forecast.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that's telling right there. Take away the furnace niño '09-'10 in the west and it's cold.

 

 

You can see how that period in the east back in the previous regime was actually slightly warmer than recently...those maps are both using '81-'10 baseline. The west was colder though.

[Ginx snewx]

Absolutely... though I am getting sick of the Euro ensemble box and whisker plots lol.

I'm fine with a mild Torchvember. Let's keep the cold for DJFM... it's really hard to get interesting winter wx here in lowland SNE prior to Turkey Day.

Love them, fact is I said Yo Yo pattern and was told no then I see yo yo in blogs and tweets three days later hmmm.

[Ginx snewx]

You can see how that period in the east back in the previous regime was actually slightly warmer than recently...those maps are both using '81-'10 baseline. The west was colder though.

mass media force feed has infiltrated even the smart ones, thank god their are guy's like you guy's around. It's gotten absurd. Imagine that there is a warm period in our climate, never happened before. You want to see dry torch look in the 30s. I am a Frigidaire because I don't fall for the company line. Thinking out of the box is discouraged,we know where were all these Monday morning quarterbacks guys were in July,in the midst of a record month, they were calling for a record breaking summer while I called for a pattern reversal and was lambasted. They can keep making their comments but don't have the balls to go out on a limb. Never wrong that way but always jump in to throw digs in. I laugh.

[scoob40]

that's BS, I called for a torch July above Normal October while you sat in the peanut gallery with the NJ trolls, pony up and make a forecast.

Ah yes. The standard Ginxter response peppered with the personal attack. In the abscense of the poster to your northwest you have received the baton and carried on admirably.

[CT Rain]

Love them, fact is I said Yo Yo pattern and was told no then I see yo yo in blogs and tweets three days later hmmm.

 

Dude... everyone thought yo-yo pattern with it averaging out AN. 

[Ginx snewx]

Ah yes. The standard Ginxter response peppered with the personal attack. In the abscense of the poster to your northwest you have received the baton and carried on admirably.

make a forecast, you are a peanut gallery critic, reminds me of the two old guys on the muppets, you and the troll.

[ORH_wxman]

mass media force feed has infiltrated even the smart ones, thank god their are guy's like you guy's around. It's gotten absurd. Imagine that there is a warm period in our climate, never happened before. You want to see dry torch look in the 30s. I am a Frigidaire because I don't fall for the company line. Thinking out of the box is discouraged,we know where were all these Monday morning quarterbacks guys were in July,in the midst of a a record month, they were calling for a record breaking summer while I called for a pattern reversal and was lambasted by the same guys above for that including PF. They can keep making their comments but don't have the balls to go out on a limb. Never wrong that way but always jump in to throw digs in. I laugh.

 

 

Well there is no doubt its been warm recently and we're certainly warmer than years ago...but its easy to get very IMBY with this type of stuff. We've been the warmest region in the U.S. relative to average the past 6 years...especially NNE. Eventually that will flip as it always does. Nothing is sustained in climate...you can have a trend, but its not a smooth ride. People should remember that. It's why Scott mentioned that you wouldn't hear nearly as much warmth complaints or stories if we were on the left coast near SEA or something....because its been colder over there relative to average in recent years.

 

Luckily for winter lovers, we've done fine in the snow department most of these winters. People keep longing for frigid temps, but I'm just happy to get the snow. I remember the frigid temps with no snow (happened a lot in the 1980s) and its not very fun...at least for me it isn't.

[CT Rain]

mass media force feed has infiltrated even the smart ones, thank god their are guy's like you guy's around. It's gotten absurd. Imagine that there is a warm period in our climate, never happened before. You want to see dry torch look in the 30s. I am a Frigidaire because I don't fall for the company line. Thinking out of the box is discouraged,we know where were all these Monday morning quarterbacks guys were in July,in the midst of a record month, they were calling for a record breaking summer while I called for a pattern reversal and was lambasted by the same guys above for that including PF. They can keep making their comments but don't have the balls to go out on a limb. Never wrong that way but always jump in to throw digs in. I laugh.

 

Huh? What are you talking about. The background warming trend is unmistakable. 

[Ginx snewx]

Dude... everyone thought yo-yo pattern with it averaging out AN.

uh no check back in the Oct thread

[CT Rain]

uh no check back in the Oct thread

 

I'm pretty sure everyone expected a yo yo pattern... at least the sane posters did. 

[joey2002]

Yeah I feel like there's been a noticeable increase in big QPF events, especially winter storms.

 

Don't ginx us! 

[Ginx snewx]

Huh? What are you talking about. The background warming trend is unmistakable.

So it cooled this year? Not going to get into a climate change discussion, background warming is not unprecedented.

[CoastalWx]

Funny I was just thinking about the 80s and some of the awfully cold and barren stretches I had. Ugh. I'm with Ryan and Will.....cold is nice and all...but it's the snow for me. Of course I'll always cheer on a pattern to keep snowpack but cold and barren weather just feels awful.

[Allsnow]

Ah yes. The standard Ginxter response peppered with the personal attack. In the abscense of the poster to your northwest you have received the baton and carried on admirably.

 

 

Its really kind of cute how he is the only one left fighting  lol! The forum has def improved, and the main discussion thread has been really good!

[CoastalWx]

So it cooled this year? Not going to get into a climate change discussion, background warming is not unprecedented.

It has warmed Steve. Obviously a slowdown over the last 15 years or so, but it's there. The good news is that we are also seeing how much things like decadal cycles play a role in governing temps in the short term.

[joey2002]

cold and barren weather just feels awful.

 

Totally agree... though I wasn't around for those '80s winters.  (Dec. '89 must have been fun just for the historical aspect)

[CoastalWx]

Totally agree... though I wasn't around for those '80s winters.

I'm actually on video asking where is the snow lol. I was 6 I think. There were some winters that were decent, but almost unheard of to have a storm give more than a foot. Cape Cod of all places did it lol. They had some good ones.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm pretty sure everyone expected a yo yo pattern... at least the sane posters did.

Tropopause_Fold

30 Oct 2013

Ginxy, on 30 Oct 2013 - 11:41 AM, said:

Euro ens show the yo yo continuing not furnace.

yo-yo?

next week looks pretty furnace-like to me. Oct 2013

Tropopause_Fold, on 30 Oct 2013 - 11:46 AM, said:

yo-yo?

next week looks pretty furnace-like to me.

CT Rain said

Yeah I don't really see a yo-yo next week... looks furnacey.

[joey2002]

I'm actually on video asking where is the snow lol. I was 6 I think. There were some winters that were decent, but almost unheard of to have a storm give more than a foot. Cape Cod of all places did it lol. They had some good ones.

 

lol... yeah we've been pretty spoiled here the last 3 years with Jan 2011, Octobomb, then Feb/March 2013.  

[ORH_wxman]

It has warmed Steve. Obviously a slowdown over the last 15 years or so, but it's there. The good news is that we are also seeing how much things like decadal cycles play a role in governing temps in the short term.

 

Except for our region and the southeast US...where we had a notable lack of warming from about 1930-1996. So we were kind of "due" to catch up to some of the other areas like the plains and western U.S...and there is no better setup to do it in than a +AMO, and then even better to get a -PDO with it.

[Ginx snewx]

Its really kind of cute how he is the only one left fighting lol! The forum has def improved, and the main discussion thread has been really good!

I defend myself sorry, how about you

Looks like we torch for the first two weeks, with little in the way of early elevation snow chances. Hopefully we see some changes come mid month

[Ginx snewx]

Its really kind of cute how he is the only one left fighting lol! The forum has def improved, and the main discussion thread has been really good!

I participate fully in the main discussion with science to make valid points. I am defending myself against your trolls and Scoobs peanut gallery comments. First it was Pete with him. Then Kevin now me. Go ahead call me a cancer to the board like you said about my friend Kevin.