General Obs and Banter Away - Will It Be A November to Remember?

[CapturedNature]

They have the latitude and altitude for that luxury

 

Hell, a torch up there in winter is a day in the 20's

 

It's all about perspective.  Even if you don't have the weather you want, there's no reason to be so negative.  I just enjoy what I have, good or bad.  I've seen it all and like they say, if you don't like the weather, just wait, it'll change!

[weatherwiz]

Just got my new PC in today! Very excited for storm watching this winter. The weather cave is nearly done

 

I hope it picks up cirrus well

[HoarfrostHubb]

We'll it looks like they're making it again tonight and yes, I bet a lot melted away today. Maybe they're just testing equipment more than anything

I spoke with an employee who told me they were blowing the mice out. But they made a helluva lot of snow

[CapturedNature]

I also enjoy checking the temps in Union, since they're often much cooler than here, and it seems like 7 people live in that town.  

 

Hopefully one of these days we can get a weather watcher in Union for snow...

 

I'd love to move up there.  It's a nice rural area surrounded by 50,000 acres of forest with decent elevation and easy access to civilization, at least by my standards.

 

Temps have stabilized up there - still 24° but it's down to 24° here.  We'll see where it goes in the AM.

[CT Rain]

I hope it picks up cirrus well

 

Or rain from those Lakes Cutters lol

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, good points. I'm definitely going to be biased as I've lived here for those 6 very warm years, and I'd wager the warm records may even out-number the cold records like 6:1 if you include record high minimums and monthly temperature records. I don't like it as a snow lover and used to deflect it when people talked about the warm records, but the trend has been really hard to ignore for me lately. I'm not trying to be like LL and praise warmth and sun...just trying to talk about it as it's hard to ignore the background warmth of the past decade.

I see BTV's last back to back cold months were in 2009...it was -1.4 in June 2009 and -2.4 in July 2009, before August rebounded to +1.6. That -2.4 to me is really impressive knowing the stats of the last 6 years, must've been a chilly summer month.

Also, your point on the longer term climate sites having trouble breaking cold records from like 100 years ago in early 20th century is a good point. Montpelier seems to break more cold records, but they have a shorter record period (starting in the 1950s I think), vs BTV's records to 1882. BTV had like an extra 70 years to set cold records.

 

 

You would have gone nuts in the late 1940s and early 1950s...which was actually a warmer period than current for your area. (and actually down here too) Given the colder climate in general at that time, it must have felt like the worst torch period that wouldn't end. From 1948-1957, VT had 10 consectuve winters above the 1931-1960 baseline including 7 consecutive above the modern 1981-2010 baseline with an average departure of +2.8F above the modern mean. In addition, there were 7 consecutive annual temperature departures above the 1931-1960 mean including 5 consecutive above the 1981-2010 mean and 9 out of 11 above the 1981-2010 mean.

 

How's that for a post-WWII style electrical bath?

[NECT]

It's about a mile as the crow flies.  Its in a col about 50' below the top of the hill in an opening in one of my sugar bushes.  Here's a map showing approximately where.  You can see it's about a mile or so from the center of town.  I think the combination of elevation and low spot helps settle colder air but it slows down after a while.  I'm often colder by morning because I tend to steadily drop all night.

 

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=41.992862,-72.1874&num=1&t=p&z=14

 

 

Yeah, that's my other station.  Like I've mentioned it's so I can monitor temps in one of my sugar bushes but it's more for amusement at times.

 

Still currently 29/19 here and 24/15 in Union.

I'm about 10 miles from there - sometimes it's as if we have a totally different climate. Seems like  200-300' of elevation can make a huge different around these parts. I don;t have any actual data, but anecdotally it seems like the R/S line is often within 15-20 miles of my location, and often associated with elevation.

[weatherwiz]

Or rain from those Lakes Cutters lol

 

[powderfreak]

You would have gone nuts in the late 1940s and early 1950s...which was actually a warmer period than current for your area. (and actually down here too) Given the colder climate in general at that time, it must have felt like the worst torch period that wouldn't end. From 1948-1957, VT had 10 consectuve winters above the 1931-1960 baseline including 7 consecutive above the modern 1981-2010 baseline with an average departure of +2.8F above the modern mean. In addition, there were 7 consecutive annual temperature departures above the 1931-1960 mean including 5 consecutive above the 1981-2010 mean and 9 out of 11 above the 1981-2010 mean.

How's that for a post-WWII style electrical bath?

Good to know this isn't the first time this has happened. Honestly the warmer temps don't really matter in terms of snowfall or anything, as we still do fine...it's probably just the annoying factor of seeing every single warm period seemingly over-perform relative to normal and the cool downs just don't get where they should.

The last decade at BTV was one of the snowiest on record if you tally all the inches up, so the warmth hasn't hindered that, except maybe snow retention.

[ORH_wxman]

Good to know this isn't the first time this has happened. Honestly the warmer temps don't really matter in terms of snowfall or anything, as we still do fine...it's probably just the annoying factor of seeing every single warm period seemingly over-perform relative to normal and the cool downs just don't get where they should.

The last decade at BTV was one of the snowiest on record if you tally all the inches up, so the warmth hasn't hindered that, except maybe snow retention.

 

 

There was a big final peak in the AMO during the early 1950s right after the PDO had nosedived into a negative regime...almost identical ocean configurations of the past 6 years. I do not think it is a coincidence....heck, you have seen the CONUS temperature anomaly maps from both of those periods and they look eerily similar in pattern.

 

Sometimes looking at patterns like that can be pretty cool. Knowing its probably not all random and that there are still huge swings in climate even with an underlying warming trend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the winter-only version of the previous map...you can see it was even worse in the winter in the previous period for cold weenies.

[joey2002]

I'm about 10 miles from there - sometimes it's as if we have a totally different climate. Seems like  200-300' of elevation can make a huge different around these parts. I don;t have any actual data, but anecdotally it seems like the R/S line is often within 15-20 miles of my location, and often associated with elevation.

 

I'd love to move up there.  It's a nice rural area surrounded by 50,000 acres of forest with decent elevation and easy access to civilization, at least by my standards.

 

Temps have stabilized up there - still 24° but it's down to 24° here.  We'll see where it goes in the AM.

 

Yeah, isn't a good part of Union around 1200 ft or something?  The extra 500 ft makes a huge difference in marginal events, and they also have a latitude advantage, which helps since it seems like the r/s line in many nor'easters likes to hover around I-84 across the state.

[CoastalWx]

PF, you're becoming a victim of the here and now...lol.

[CapturedNature]

Yeah, isn't a good part of Union around 1200 ft or something?  The extra 500 ft makes a huge difference in marginal events, and they also have a latitude advantage, which helps since it seems like the r/s line in many nor'easters likes to hover around I-84 across the state.

 

A good portion is above 1000' and surrounded by hills 2-300' higher.  That makes a difference and yes, there are places where you can live over 1200'.  As I'm sure you've seen, elevation can be the key in some setups.  My long term average is about 58" and based on what I've seen you'd probably have another 5-10" over time up there.  It really is the best of both worlds - elevation and a place that cools off at night.

[CapturedNature]

Looks like I tied yesterday's low of 24° after the clouds rolled in.

[forkyfork]

lol @ extrapolating day 7+ op forecasts 30 days into the future because the result might show snow

[CoastalWx]

lol @ extrapolating day 7+ op forecasts 30 days into the future because the result might show snow

It's taking the patten shown and applying a December mask to it. At least that's what I meant.

[dryslot]

NNE thread is the best. Never a mention of a bad or torch pattern coming up. Just always high/low and pics of mtns. It's like they close their eyes during torches and wake up when the pattern changes.

 

lol

 

We had some nice meltdowns in 09-10.

 

I may have led the pack

[joey2002]

A good portion is above 1000' and surrounded by hills 2-300' higher.  That makes a difference and yes, there are places where you can live over 1200'.  As I'm sure you've seen, elevation can be the key in some setups.  My long term average is about 58" and based on what I've seen you'd probably have another 5-10" over time up there.  It really is the best of both worlds - elevation and a place that cools off at night.

 

Yeah, how does Union cool off so quickly at night?  It's unreal sometimes how they drop like a rock just after sunset.

[N. OF PIKE]

i think Maine looks best being further NE to see the winter potential out of any Aleutian Polward Record Ridge.

 

I have heard wave lengths next few weeks work best for cold dumping out of SE canada into New England if we can get some of that Record Ridge to expand polward.

 

I think Folks in Maine could be in for quite a surprise wintery period.

[scoob40]

Yeah, how does Union cool off so quickly at night?  It's unreal sometimes how they drop like a rock just after sunset.

 

 

A good portion is above 1000' and surrounded by hills 2-300' higher.  That makes a difference and yes, there are places where you can live over 1200'.  As I'm sure you've seen, elevation can be the key in some setups.  My long term average is about 58" and based on what I've seen you'd probably have another 5-10" over time up there.  It really is the best of both worlds - elevation and a place that cools off at night.

Totally opposite than the pit aka Shelburne, Ma.

[dryslot]

i think Maine looks best being further NE to see the winter potential out of any Aleutian Polward Record Ridge.

 

I have heard wave lengths next few weeks work best for cold dumping out of SE canada into New England if we can get some of that Record Ridge to expand polward.

 

I think Folks in Maine could be in for quite a surprise wintery period.

 

[OceanStWx]

 

 

Time to shove my 6 iron into the electrical socket?

 

One of these years I'll play on Thanksgiving up here.

[Ginx snewx]

Just passed Foster RI, kettle hole with skim ice at 430, nice.

[OceanStWx]

Just passed Foster RI, kettle hole with skim ice at 430, nice.

 

What a   location.

[Ginx snewx]

5 miles from my home, a climo away.

[powderfreak]

5miles from my house a climo away

 

The average annual snowfall doubles within 5 miles of my house, haha.  It is amazing how much climates can change in very short horizonal distances.  I also think back to 2009-2010 when I lived in Jonesville, VT and had about 80 inches of snowfall...meanwhile J.Spin was a straight shot 4-5 miles away and picked up 130" (with no real change in elevation).  I love that micro-climates stuff...like Foster, R.I.  You guys always talk about Princeton, MA as being one of those micro-climate weenie spots, too.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just passed Foster RI, kettle hole with skim ice at 430, nice.

You are not being truthful

[Ginx snewx]

The average annual snowfall doubles within 5 miles of my house, haha. It is amazing how much climates can change in very short horizonal distances. I also think back to 2009-2010 when I lived in Jonesville, VT and had about 80 inches of snowfall...meanwhile J.Spin was a straight shot 4-5 miles away and picked up 130" (with no real change in elevation). I love that micro-climates stuff...like Foster, R.I. You guys always talk about Princeton, MA as being one of those micro-climate weenie spots, too.

when I lived in Ashaway RI up a hill from me was a huge weenie spot, down the hill from me was the coldest spot in RI Wood River Junction, basically RIs pine barren, radiated like no other. Within a mile of me were two entirely different climo spots.

[CoastalWx]

when I lived in Ashaway RI up a hill from me was a huge weenie spot, down the hill from me was the coldest spot in RI Wood River Junction, basically RIs pine barren, radiated like no other. Within a mile of me were two entirely different climo spots.

When I used to volunteer at BOX in HS, Dave Vallee told me the same thing. Unfortunately people were private and never reported I guess.

[powderfreak]

when I lived in Ashaway RI up a hill from me was a huge weenie spot, down the hill from me was the coldest spot in RI Wood River Junction, basically RIs pine barren, radiated like no other. Within a mile of me were two entirely different climo spots.

 

Very cool.