Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Snowy? Probably not. But in the likely places, I'm expecting snow on the ground by late month. I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. of course, I'm probably looking in all the wrong places. 29.5/17 For you that's probably climo, I have been meaning to ask what's your elevation at the Pit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 We go through the November Blues every single year on here...except last year when we had the 11/7 event. I recall November 2010 and 2008 being especially bad...2010 because it wasn't very cold and 2008 because it was really cold but there were no snow events to go with it so we were "wasting the good pattern"...then shortly after there were meltdowns heading into mid-December before the 12/19 event showed up. Recall the massive meltdowns too in December 2010 when we finally switched to cold, but had no snow to show for it...so we were once again "wasting the cold". If I can remain stable from Oct 2011 until Jan 2013...I expect everyone else to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Forget it Mike I am off my phone, see your elevation now. Great weenie spot you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 If I can remain stable from Oct 2011 until Jan 2013...I expect everyone else to. Well that was a pretty terrible run for you. Hopefully what the Euro is advertising is a transient feature in the N PAC pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 For you that's probably climo, I have been meaning to ask what's your elevation at the Pit? I'm not very high--just over 1k. In spite of my lowness in relation to the neighboring hills, I get some unique conditions as a result of being on a knoll with steep drops of 100 - 150' feet. 29.2/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Who? Maybe its no one in particular, but more the overall mood. Go scan some of the October threads. There was a lot of optimism and discussion for wire-to-wire winters and a quick starting winter in November. Will and Scott were all over a possible November torch while some others were not going that route. Heck take any Blizz post on any given day in October, lol. He was certain the first widespread snowfall was coming between Oct 25 and Nov 5 and it was off to the races after that... but I guess he probably didn't even believe that himself, haha. There's mixed signals right now, but I think we are trending more toward a torch in middle November after the first several days of the month. I know a lot of people don't want to hear that but its beginning to look like we could get into that type of pattern. Given the ensemble spread and the uncertainty in the MJO phase and strength...pretty big differences between the ensemble suites on that so the confidence is obviously very low. As an aside....Still feeling good on the 2002 evolution, Jerry? Nice to see no reversal in the long range. Eerily 2002esque this year. So eerily 2002esque this year. Flip in the last part of October, guidance with a torch in November that gets crimped with a return to a chillier pattern. EPO ftmfw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Forget it Mike I am off my phone, see your elevation now. Great weenie spot you have. Thanks. Stop by on your way back from the Beast for coffee this winter. Invite's open to any other weenies, too. Only about 15 minutes or so on your way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 We go through the November Blues every single year on here...except last year when we had the 11/7 event. I recall November 2010 and 2008 being especially bad...2010 because it wasn't very cold and 2008 because it was really cold but there were no snow events to go with it so we were "wasting the good pattern"...then shortly after there were meltdowns heading into mid-December before the 12/19 event showed up. Recall the massive meltdowns too in December 2010 when we finally switched to cold, but had no snow to show for it...so we were once again "wasting the cold". November Blues... I like that phrase, haha. And we also go through the October Optimism period every year, followed by the November Blues. October seems to be a very optimistic month on here... re-read the October threads. Its palpable the optimism in October, cold pattern settling in late in the month and off to the races. But then we get to November and it doesn't look like we'd hoped it would, and then we get the Blues, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 That pattern shown is mild for Canada too as it floods them with PAC air. Lets hope it's transient. It looks like some of the experimental progs try to show a change in December, but I don't know how much skill they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 November Blues... I like that phrase, haha. And we also go through the October Optimism period every year, followed by the November Blues. October seems to be a very optimistic month on here... re-read the October threads. Its palpable the optimism in October, cold pattern settling in late in the month and off to the races. But then we get to November and it doesn't look like we'd hoped it would, and then we get the Blues, haha. Don't get me started on the "qpf blues"...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Don't get me started on the "qpf blues"...... I'm with ya on that one... being on the NW fringe of most snowstorms that impact a majority of the posters on this forum. October Optimism and November Blues lead to December Digging and Deep Dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Thanks. Stop by on your way back from the Beast for coffee this winter. Invite's open to any other weenies, too. Only about 15 minutes or so on your way back.Turn on the pot, expecting multiple visits, big skiing GTG there this year. Maybe you can stop in and meet up in the afternoon. Details will be given. Cold has a different feel tonight, not the radiant type early morning cold we had in October more of a deeper cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Who? Maybe its no one in particular, but more the overall mood. Go scan some of the October threads. There was a lot of optimism and discussion for wire-to-wire winters and a quick starting winter in November. Will and Scott were all over a possible November torch while some others were not going that route. Heck take any Blizz post on any given day in October, lol. He was certain the first widespread snowfall was coming between Oct 25 and Nov 5 and it was off to the races after that... but I guess he probably didn't even believe that himself, haha. There's mixed signals right now, but I think we are trending more toward a torch in middle November after the first several days of the month. I know a lot of people don't want to hear that but its beginning to look like we could get into that type of pattern. Given the ensemble spread and the uncertainty in the MJO phase and strength...pretty big differences between the ensemble suites on that so the confidence is obviously very low. As an aside....Still feeling good on the 2002 evolution, Jerry? Nice to see no reversal in the long range. Eerily 2002esque this year. So eerily 2002esque this year. Flip in the last part of October, guidance with a torch in November that gets crimped with a return to a chillier pattern. EPO ftmfw. We'll know in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Turn on the pot, expecting multiple visits, big skiing GTG there this year. Maybe you can stop in and meet up in the afternoon. Details will be given. Cold has a different feel tonight, not the radiant type early morning cold we had in October more of a deeper cold. Sounds good. 28.8/15--we'd really cool down if we had some fresh snow on the ground...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 11-15 scores are la la land, if you think that verifies verbatim that's cool but I agree it looks warm that week. I am not even concerned when my winter normally starts around Christmas. That what seven weeks away? The Nov 11 vortex has really made some paranoid. Hopefully folks understand the historical nature of that deviations persistence. I meant it in a way that there is overwhelming support from the guidance, thats all. Definitely not trying to say the 11-15 day models are a lock every time...And to be fair in this instance, New England is actually shown as normal for the 11-15 day period. I'd be inclined to edge warmer than that if that pattern happened, but verbatim the torch doesn't dominate new england. I think the +AO is going to be a big problem this winter, however, i'm not going to sulk over a bad pattern in mid-Novy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 It's official, BOS records first sub 32 reading of the 2013-14 winter in the wee hours of 11/4. It dropped to 32 at 2 AM and has been AOB since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 No improvement in the 11-15d ecens last night. We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 No improvement in the 11-15d ecens last night. We wait. The only good thing is that it seems to stay in the 11-15 for the past few days. Although that's common as these turnings are inevitably delayed. We only remember that when we're in the cusp of a flip to cold it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 It's official, BOS records first sub 32 reading of the 2013-14 winter in the wee hours of 11/4. It dropped to 32 at 2 AM and has been AOB since. Congrats, Beantown. Had you gone below at your home, Jerry? It never got too cold here, but I've had my longest sub-freezing period of the season. Dropped below 32* at 4:50p.m. yesterday. 23.7/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Congrats, Beantown. Had you gone below at your home, Jerry? It never got too cold here, but I've had my longest sub-freezing period of the season. Dropped below 32* at 4:50p.m. yesterday. 23.7/15 Not sure Mike. I'm too lazy to get wrapped up in equipment...lol. We may have a few weeks ago per memory but probaby just missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Only got to 24.1F. Clouds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Not sure Mike. I'm too lazy to get wrapped up in equipment...lol. We may have a few weeks ago per memory but probaby just missed. Well you can count today in any case. With a number of exceptions, looks like the vast majority of the interior SNE got low-mid 20's. CT river valley in CT came in warm and a few outliers got teens. Not sure what the forecasts were across the region, but I know the ZFP for her was calling for around 20*. Seems that might have been a little lower than actuality. But, temps will tick down a bit more before the rebound, so not too far off. 23.5/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 32,0 at home here. Still not below 32, although siting might be an issue. If I go 100' lower they were below 32 over 2 weeks ago..lol. Hilltop and ocean FTL. North winds currently have a trajectory off the ocean at my house which is why I'm a bit warmer than BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 finally first freeze - 31/17 at UUU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 31.8 now. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 31.8 now. Oh boy. Congrats. Looks like today and tonight will be very similar to what we experienced the last 24 hours, with lighter winds. 23.9/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 It looks like 23° is probably going to be the low here. A nice 18° over in Union - they actually averaged a day below 32° with a low like that. Looks like SLK got down to 8°. What an awesome range that place has! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 31.5. Might be able to beat that tonight with light winds even on a hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 It looks like 23° is probably going to be the low here. A nice 18° over in Union - they actually averaged a day below 32° with a low like that. Looks like SLK got down to 8°. What an awesome range that place has! Actually, their average yesterday was 35.7* (per Wunderground). They will do it today though if they can stay below 46, which should be easy to do per forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 26 in Amherst this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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