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November Weather Discussion


moneypitmike

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To me it has the look of above normal heights in the wake of a hurricane over Alaska sector, and not an attempt at forming some -nao type setup. remember that happening in 2011-2012 where the nao was even registering negative at times in the wake of alaska vortex. I'm not trying to say this winter is heading that way at all, but these pattern signals completely stink right now

This is no la la land signal here...plenty of support for the +AO regime at the very least. We can hope the alaska/pacific trends better I suppose

11-15 scores are la la land, if you think that verifies verbatim that's cool but I agree it looks warm that week. I am not even concerned when my winter normally starts around Christmas. That what seven weeks away? The Nov 11 vortex has really made some paranoid. Hopefully folks understand the historical nature of that deviations persistence.
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Morch is no longer a winter month. Torchvember may spill into December. 

 

Seriously though I'm not even worried for a second - November doesn't really matter to me and we have an entire month to straighten out the ugly look. 

There in lies the folly, in crappy winters we often have this look early and it simply locks in for a good chunk of the winter....

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There in lies the folly, in crappy winters we often have this look early and it simply locks in for a good chunk of the winter....

Yeah sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't. Not hard to look back and see some pretty crappy November's lead to either bad or good winters. I am more concerned with QPF. After all that being said is normal to below for the next ten days really that crappy?
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Wtf are you talking about? Don't make sh it up Ryan.

 

we are having a nice conversation then Mod Met has to troll, nice.

 

lol it was a joke. It seems to me that most weenies, mets, and everyone in between have lowered expectations for November. Just looks meh right now... no doubt about that. 

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lol it was a joke. It seems to me that most weenies, mets, and everyone in between have lowered expectations for November. Just looks meh right now... no doubt about that.

well whoever expects a snowy November is going to be disappointed. I like the 93/94 look and have for a long time if that's lowered expectations and moving the goalposts then I guess you are right.
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Yeah sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't. Not hard to look back and see some pretty crappy November's lead to either bad or good winters. I am more concerned with QPF. After all that being said is normal to below for the next ten days really that crappy?

Agree on the QPF.   Also, who knows if we end up below temps next 10 days-end of Oct was supposed to be cold and in the end, really just came in with average temps vs the cold models showed....felt cold after the inferno of the 1st 21 days of Oct, but wasnt that cold in the end.

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well whoever expects a snowy November is going to be disappointed. I like the 93/94 look and have for a long time if that's lowered expectations and moving the goalposts then I guess you are right.

 

There were plenty of people who kept posting about winter and cold being around the corner in Novie. 

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well whoever expects a snowy November is going to be disappointed. I like the 93/94 look and have for a long time if that's lowered expectations and moving the goalposts then I guess you are right.

I don't think anyone was looking for a snowy November, but a lot of folks were jumping on the late-Oct cold shot as a pattern change that would bring winter in early (as in steady below normal temps, not snowfall). There were a good deal of early winter calls this year or at least in the discussion over the last month.

Joking aside and not at any person in general, but it does seem like the overall consensus here has now moved past November for anything exciting...when a week ago there seemed to be a lot more optimism.

But that's how weather is. You gotta move the goalposts sometimes as more data comes out. I don't think anyone should get defensive about altering their thoughts as more information comes out...that's a lot better than stubbornly going with an idea that you know looks wrong, haha.

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I don't think anyone was looking for a snowy November, but a lot of folks were jumping on the late-Oct cold shot as a pattern change that would bring winter in early (as in steady below normal temps, not snowfall). There were a good deal of early winter calls this year or at least in the discussion over the last month.

Joking aside and not at any person in general, but it does seem like the overall consensus here has now moved past November for anything exciting...when a week ago there seemed to be a lot more optimism.

But that's how weather is. You gotta move the goalposts sometimes as more data comes out. I don't think anyone should get defensive about altering their thoughts as more information comes out...that's a lot better than stubbornly going with an idea that you know looks wrong, haha.

 

 

Late November could still turn a lot better....this mid November relaxation has been showing up for a while now. But it just wasn't really more certain until now. The late Oct cold shot was seen from really far out too...we were talking about sometime after 10/20 back around 10/5.

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I don't think anyone was looking for a snowy November, but a lot of folks were jumping on the late-Oct cold shot as a pattern change that would bring winter in early (as in steady below normal temps, not snowfall). There were a good deal of early winter calls this year or at least in the discussion over the last month.

Joking aside and not at any person in general, but it does seem like the overall consensus here has now moved past November for anything exciting...when a week ago there seemed to be a lot more optimism.

But that's how weather is. You gotta move the goalposts sometimes as more data comes out. I don't think anyone should get defensive about altering their thoughts as more information comes out...that's a lot better than stubbornly going with an idea that you know looks wrong, haha.

 

I think some people just don't have patience or just accept what they have.  It can't be extreme all the time and having grown up the first half of my life with note worthy storms few and far in-between, I know that if you wait around long enough, it will come.

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We go through the November Blues every single year on here...except last year when we had the 11/7 event. I recall November 2010 and 2008 being especially bad...2010 because it wasn't very cold and 2008 because it was really cold but there were no snow events to go with it so we were "wasting the good pattern"...then shortly after there were meltdowns heading into mid-December before the 12/19 event showed up. Recall the massive meltdowns too in December 2010 when we finally switched to cold, but had no snow to show for it...so we were once again "wasting the cold".

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I think some people just don't have patience or just accept what they have. It can't be extreme all the time and having grown up the first half of my life with note worthy storms few and far in-between, I know that if you wait around long enough, it will come.

Growing up near the coast I never expected anything good before New Years. Some of us are just joking with the winter stuff, but it's way too early to worry. Weenies need to settle down and let the cards fall as they may.

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Agree on the QPF. Also, who knows if we end up below temps next 10 days-end of Oct was supposed to be cold and in the end, really just came in with average temps vs the cold models showed....felt cold after the inferno of the 1st 21 days of Oct, but wasnt that cold in the end.

The period from 1022 to 1030 was 3-5 BN
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well whoever expects a snowy November is going to be disappointed. I like the 93/94 look and have for a long time if that's lowered expectations and moving the goalposts then I guess you are right.

 

Snowy?  Probably not.  But in the likely places, I'm expecting snow on the ground by late month.  I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise.  of course, I'm probably looking in all the wrong places.

 

29.5/17

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Could be some really good wind gusts on Friday if the GFS is right. That's a pretty strong low deepening over QC.

The trend has definitely been stronger on this storm, another Hills limb and tree buster? Today's fall cleanup FTL. I was surprised how many small branches were down in my yard. Waking up in the dark and getting home in the dark I had not seen them. Time to replace my broken anemometer.
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