Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Yes, the mean being warmer than average has been favored for several days now in the long range beyond this week. So far, no major surprises...the much colder next day or two, and then a big torch later this week, followed by cooler on the weekend with a tendency toward warmer beyond that. And it's a bizarre pattern too. I mean, look at the Euro... Entire Canadian shield with even over-lap into the oceanic basins in near or less than -10C 850s, with this bulging warm ridge packed underneath in MV-MA. I guess you guys call that "a gradient" pattern, but come on. Man! That's got to be the EPO doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Feast or famine in NEUS it appears. Yeah, BTV was over an inch below normal...I got lucky really on this last rain event where the strong WSW flow aloft pushed the heaviest orographic precip over the Spine and onto the east slopes and interior. Ended up with over an inch more than BTV on that one alone. But it's still been dry in the means...but wow at some of those monthly totals along the coastline. Still brings me back though to my original question, anyone know the climo usual time period for low streamflows in New England outside Dec-Mar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Yeah, BTV was over an inch below normal...I got lucky really on this last rain event where the strong WSW flow aloft pushed the heaviest orographic precip over the Spine and onto the east slopes and interior. Ended up with over an inch more than BTV on that one alone. But it's still been dry in the means...but wow at some of those monthly totals along the coastline. Still brings me back though to my original question, anyone know the climo usual time period for low streamflows in New England outside Dec-Mar? Probably depends on how big the river... but I imagine late summer/fall as the lowest for median streamflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Thursday afternoon could get pretty stormy as well... I like seeing the sfc low deepening rapdily as it passes to our north as opposed to last week's which was filling. Stormy is good..... Looks like 11/10-20 is way above normal. Hopefully we drop thereafter. This is not....... I'm expecting to tickle 18 or 19 Seems like a good bet for you. I might not be too far from that myself--tough for me to get at your level Cooling down nicely. 35.1/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Man, Euro ensembles continuing the furnace look beyond about D10 in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Man, Euro ensembles continuing the furnace look beyond about D10 in the means. That's one ugly AK vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Fuggggly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Man, Euro ensembles continuing the furnace look beyond about D10 in the means. Just hideous. GEFS weaken +NAO a bit beyond D10 so maybe a bit of hope/help on the Atlantic side if the Pacific turns nightmareish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 That's one ugly AK vortex oh boy...we don't want that locking in this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 oh boy...we don't want that locking in this early I think it would be temporary if it does develop. As I said this morning there are hints that the NAO/AO/PNA all change by month's end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 oh boy...we don't want that locking in this early I think it would be temporary if it does develop. As I said this morning there are hints that the NAO/AO/PNA all change by month's end Who took over your bb persona? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 This seems to be the time of year that the rivers up here reach their driest, in my experience. But we haven't been as dry as you guys have. I've had 1.7" since Thursday which has led to a bump up in local stream flow. What's the general New England streamflow minimum? Is it stick season in the Spring? We usually have decent water all spring from melting snow, but I guess maybe August if it's dry gets pretty low. I just always think of fall as the driest time of year for rivers. You are correct Nov 1st is traditional as low stream flow mins. We are about even with 2010. Looks like a wet pattern upcoming as usually happens in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 I'm expecting to tickle 18 or 19 Temps are dropping off pretty nicely this evening. The few times I've dipped below freezing this young season have occurred between 6:00-7:30a.m. Below that already. That will stall out though in the next 30-45 minutes and the valleys will take over with me possibly even ticking upward. Pisses me off every time! 31.6/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 EURO 12z for the next 10 days as Jerry pointed out looks ABN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 EURO 12z for the next 10 days as Jerry pointed out looks ABN. Then why all this torch talk and worry? lol Accept the forecasted indices for what their worth; enjoy the things that will be taking place in the present/immediate future, and never lose sight of how long term patterns must be taken with a grain of salt. Oh--and it's only Nov. 3. 31.2/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 May have to watch for a wintry event a week from Now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 May have to watch for a wintry event a week from Now. Congrats Maine on the op Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Congrats Maine on the op Euro. That's where we want it. They always come south. 30.8/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Then why all this torch talk and worry? lol Accept the forecasted indices for what their worth; enjoy the things that will be taking place in the present/immediate future, and never lose sight of how long term patterns must be taken with a grain of salt. Oh--and it's only Nov. 3. 31.2/19 Ens warm up 11-15 but that's la la land. Pretty normal next 10 days on the Ens. Probably will be a warm period mid month but the torch calls I saw here for the first two weeks of Nov will fail. Also nice to see elevation snows today and maybe another threat next week. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 FWIW, in my quick analog calculation, 2006-7 is the strongest match. And what we're seeing in the EC ensembles long range and all, with a lot of warmth, matches pretty well with the 2006 November-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 FWIW, in my quick analog calculation, 2006-7 is the strongest match. And what we're seeing in the EC ensembles long range and all, with a lot of warmth, matches pretty well with the 2006 November-December. very nice to hear. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 FWIW, in my quick analog calculation, 2006-7 is the strongest match. And what we're seeing in the EC ensembles long range and all, with a lot of warmth, matches pretty well with the 2006 November-December. The second half of that winter was epic up here but I don't want to take that chance again....heart of the winter sucked. Tons of good news on the board today, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 The second half of that winter was epic up here but I don't want to take that chance again....heart of the winter sucked. Tons of good news on the board today, lol. SR making tons of snow. Opening more and more trails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I don't give a crap about the ski areas. Snow here. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Just hideous. GEFS weaken +NAO a bit beyond D10 so maybe a bit of hope/help on the Atlantic side if the Pacific turns nightmareish? To me it has the look of above normal heights in the wake of a hurricane over Alaska sector, and not an attempt at forming some -nao type setup. remember that happening in 2011-2012 where the nao was even registering negative at times in the wake of alaska vortex. I'm not trying to say this winter is heading that way at all, but these pattern signals completely stink right now Ens warm up 11-15 but that's la la land. Pretty normal next 10 days on the Ens. Probably will be a warm period mid month but the torch calls I saw here for the first two weeks of Nov will fail. Also nice to see elevation snows today and maybe another threat next week. Baby steps. This is no la la land signal here...plenty of support for the +AO regime at the very least. We can hope the alaska/pacific trends better I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I don't give a crap about the ski areas. Snow here. That is all.Early December is my call then late Dec. Best part of winter Mid Jan on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 FWIW, in my quick analog calculation, 2006-7 is the strongest match. And what we're seeing in the EC ensembles long range and all, with a lot of warmth, matches pretty well with the 2006 November-December. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Early December is my call then late Dec. Best part of winter Mid Jan on. ...and it begins. The s are already moving the goalposts and lowering expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 To me it has the look of above normal heights in the wake of a hurricane over Alaska sector, and not an attempt at forming some -nao type setup. remember that happening in 2011-2012 where the nao was even registering negative at times in the wake of alaska vortex. I'm not trying to say this winter is heading that way at all, but these pattern signals completely stink right now This is no la la land signal here...plenty of support for the +AO regime at the very least. We can hope the alaska/pacific trends better I suppose Nothing like a -NAO forcing Pacific vomit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 ...and it begins. The s are already moving the goalposts and lowering expectations March will rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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