weathafella Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 BOS down to 40/35 as of 10 AM obs. Close but likely no cigar based in radar trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 BOS down to 40/35 as of 10 AM obs. Close but likely no cigar based in radar trend. They get down to 39 earlier with heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 They get down to 39 earlier with heavier precip. Nearly a lock for first freeze after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Looking forward to a fairly easy November for a change. I will be disappointed if we get into Thanksgiving week without a change to at least seasonable weather but am not at all bothered by the upcoming pattern as it relates to winter. As long as it's stepping down towards December and we're not having debates on how long we can go into January without an inch this year, I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41601-analog-approach-to-november-and-beyond/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 So the new analog prog using the euro ensembles and extrapolating out to 30 days shows a cooler end of November. 11-15 are indeed ugly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 The Euro ensembles are a mid-month blow torch. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41601-analog-approach-to-november-and-beyond/ Definitely an ugly look there for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 So the new analog prog using the euro ensembles and extrapolating out to 30 days shows a cooler end of November. 11-15 are indeed ugly though.There are signs that the AO/NAO will go - and thePNA will go + towards the end ofnovember into early December so better to get this pattern now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41601-analog-approach-to-november-and-beyond/ Wow that looks atrocious for the first part of winter... December, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Not a good look for the first part of winter, still time for things to improve, but far from ideal moving forward. Cold cold rain here in taunton, looking at the car windshield, some ice seems to be mixed in, but no snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 yeah but its not often it works out as they show.. They will change for better or worse The Euro ensembles are a mid-month blow torch. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Wow...what a blue-bird week this is going to be. It will hard-freeze tonight, but then we're going into a huge diurnals amid deep blue heavens type of a pattern ... through Wednesday, even losing it to a warm night and truly balmy day on Thursday. It is the balance of the oper. guidance that agree. Despite the -3 or so at 850mb, with calm wind and such clear air, even the Novie feeble sun will get the area to 52 I think. Then it's adding 8 degrees per day through Thursday. Say 61 under pure blue, light wind sky on Tuesday. Perhaps a little more haze and nearing 70 on Wednesday. Then staying in the 50s Wed night and Thursday could make a run at 76'ish. All the while quiescence is the characterizing theme. It's just the overall appeal imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 yeah but its not often it works out as they show.. They will change for better or worse The correction vector favors warmer, though. For some that is better or worse... The CPC tele's are all signaling warm, AO/NAO/PNA ... warm warm warm, until further notice. In that 2 week period, any warmer scenario would be better statistical fits. The CDC was, as of November 1, calculated similarly with the NAO/PNA, but they do us a reach-around by "normally" calculating the WPO and EPO -- unfortunately, they are annoying. They often black out and don't compute for days on end. Nice tax dollars, jerks. anyway, the EPO was negative at that time. That was/is about the only hope if you are of the cold weather ilk, for modulating things more toward seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I think Jerry mentioned this the other day but it looks like Boston (Logan) has a shot at 32 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Wow that looks atrocious for the first part of winter... December, lol. Toaster sales will be brisk on black Friday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Pretty meh on the chill today considering I had 44* as the high on the 25th and 45* as the high on the 29th. 41.3/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Toaster sales will be brisk on black Friday. lol LOL. Enjoy it--it's the only weather you've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 The correction vector favors warmer, though. For some that is better or worse... The CPC tele's are all signaling warm, AO/NAO/PNA ... warm warm warm, until further notice. In that 2 week period, any warmer scenario would be better statistical fits. The CDC was, as of November 1, calculated similarly with the NAO/PNA, but they do us a reach-around by "normally" calculating the WPO and EPO -- unfortunately, they are annoying. They often black out and don't compute for days on end. Nice tax dollars, jerks. anyway, the EPO was negative at that time. That was/is about the only hope if you are of the cold weather ilk, for modulating things more toward seasonal. Yes, the mean being warmer than average has been favored for several days now in the long range beyond this week. So far, no major surprises...the much colder next day or two, and then a big torch later this week, followed by cooler on the weekend with a tendency toward warmer beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Photo of Willimantic River gauge I just took. Yankee farmers told me when I was young that winters cold and snow will not take hold until the rivers are full. Over the years this has been true much more than not. Looking forward to some heavy rains to bring these up. Drought is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 I like the 11* dp up in St. Johnsbury They seem well-poised for their progged 16* low tonight. 40.6/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Photo of Willimantic River gauge I just took. Yankee farmers told me when I was young that winters cold and snow will not take hold until the rivers are full. Over the years this has been true much more than not. Looking forward to some heavy rains to bring these up. Drought is ongoing. That's a good fishing river according to my fly-fisher wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 That's a good fishing river according to my fly-fisher wife.yeah lots of small mouth up river from where I am. Getting cold out here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 yeah lots of small mouth up river from where I am. Getting cold out here now. Rivers and reservoirs are about as low as I ever seen locally. Kind of going unnoticed, but never seen anything this dry in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Could be really cold Tuesday morning if we radiate. Not sure if we'll keep cirrus away but worth watching... could see alot of teens in the rad spots if we go clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Thursday afternoon could get pretty stormy as well... I like seeing the sfc low deepening rapdily as it passes to our north as opposed to last week's which was filling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Looks like 11/10-20 is way above normal. Hopefully we drop thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Could be really cold Tuesday morning if we radiate. Not sure if we'll keep cirrus away but worth watching... could see alot of teens in the rad spots if we go clear.I'm expecting to tickle 18 or 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Rivers and reservoirs are about as low as I ever seen locally. Kind of going unnoticed, but never seen anything this dry in November. This seems to be the time of year that the rivers up here reach their driest, in my experience. But we haven't been as dry as you guys have. I've had 1.7" since Thursday which has led to a bump up in local stream flow. What's the general New England streamflow minimum? Is it stick season in the Spring? We usually have decent water all spring from melting snow, but I guess maybe August if it's dry gets pretty low. I just always think of fall as the driest time of year for rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 This seems to be the time of year that the rivers up here reach their driest, in my experience. But we haven't been as dry as you guys have. I've had 1.7" since Thursday which has led to a bump up in local stream flow. What's the general New England streamflow minimum? Is it stick season in the Spring? We usually have decent water all spring from melting snow, but I guess maybe August if it's dry gets pretty low. I just always think of fall as the driest time of year for rivers. Feast or famine in NEUS it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.