CapturedNature Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 So, I guess a little whitening is in the cards--especially I think for the folks in central MA where I think the best combination of temps and precipitation will be. Pretty gusty overnight. Now, another mild morning. 34.4/24 For some reason I wasn't expecting the winds last night. My anemometer is down attm but we had some window rattling winds last night. Looking forward to seeing my first accumulating snowfall tonight. I don't think I'll get my first inch but a few tenths would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 We better enjoy this upcoming cold shot. That might be it for a little while Yup--it looks pretty sad heading out from here. And, the cold shot is going to be so fleeting. Well, winter will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 For some reason I wasn't expecting the winds last night. My anemometer is down attm but we had some window rattling winds last night. Looking forward to seeing my first accumulating snowfall tonight. I don't think I'll get my first inch but a few tenths would be fine. Yeah--the winds were much stronger than I had anticipated as well. During the day--save for one burst at about 4:30pm,.--it was really nothing. Waking up from it during the overnight, I'm inclined to walk out back a bit later to see if anything came down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 For some reason I wasn't expecting the winds last night. My anemometer is down attm but we had some window rattling winds last night. Looking forward to seeing my first accumulating snowfall tonight. I don't think I'll get my first inch but a few tenths would be fine.Yeah man did it roar all night. Many gusts over 40. Looks like about an inch or so for many of the hills tomorrow morning. Euro brings cold back day 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 KFIT gusted only to 29mph but that is lower down. I would imagine it was higher here Kevin, how bad is it showing for the torch before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 KFIT gusted only to 29mph but that is lower down. I would imagine it was higher here Kevin, how bad is it showing for the torch before that? Looks like a few days in the 50's and maybe the torch spots hit 60 . Nothing outrageous. A few days above normal but nothing that would really piss us off too badly. I have a feeling though anything sustained cold wise waits till Tgiving time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yeah man did it roar all night. Many gusts over 40. Looks like about an inch or so for many of the hills tomorrow morning. Euro brings cold back day 10-11 I'd side with "a few" rather than "many". Heavier bursts will be hit or miss and the temp issue/p-type is suspect (though I think colder may eek out). My forecast is calling for 'up to an inch", but since the starting point is 0, I guess anything within that range is a forecast win. Since the precip is slated to begin out here during the evening, you folks east can at least get an early guage if we have snow early on in the game and perhaps extrapolate from there. 34.8/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I'd side with "a few" rather than "many". Heavier bursts will be hit or miss and the temp issue/p-type isn't is suspect (though I think colder may eek out). My forecast is calling for 'up to an inch", but since the starting point is 0, I guess anything within that range is a forecast win. Since the precip is slated to begin out here during the evening, you folks east can at least get an early guage if we have snow early on in the game and perhaps extrapolate from there. 34.8/26 Yeah I don't really agree with the BOX AFD, in fact it's a bit of a head scratcher. Highly doubt many see more than a coating..maybe half inch in the higher el. In fact, the best precip may be on the south coast. Maybe someone sees a bit more, but probably very isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yeah I don't really agree with the BOX AFD, in fact it's a bit of a head scratcher. Highly doubt many see more than a coating..maybe half inch in the higher el. In fact, the best precip may be on the south coast. Maybe someone sees a bit more, but probably very isolated. 2-3 for Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 2-3 for Pete. The Berks could be one of those places obviously, but not sure about that for central and eastern areas. I do think it will be bursty and could look briefly wintry for some. I'm sure one weenie town will overachieve and am "AWT" is thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Longer range still looks decent. Maybe not ideal, but perhaps a more favorable pattern developing near or after T-Day. Models disagree on the Pacific look which obviously has an outcome. The 00z GEFS looked best with a nice AK ridge allowing for more cross polar flow into the US. The euro ensembles were weaker with this feature but did try to cool us off very late in the game. Not much of a -NAO, but some weak ridging developing near srn Greenland. We all know the caveats this far out. It looks like the MJO will try to help here, but still disagreement there which has downstream effects on the Pacific pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I'd side with "a few" rather than "many". Heavier bursts will be hit or miss and the temp issue/p-type is suspect (though I think colder may eek out). My forecast is calling for 'up to an inch", but since the starting point is 0, I guess anything within that range is a forecast win. Since the precip is slated to begin out here during the evening, you folks east can at least get an early guage if we have snow early on in the game and perhaps extrapolate from there. 34.8/26 I think all of the hilltowns have a very good shot at seeing an inch..some places maybe 2. As BOX said some models actually spit out .20 qpf over the area.These types of systems have a tendency to be very sneaky and over perform. We've seen it many times over the years. And posters always seem surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I think all of the hilltowns have a very good shot at seeing an inch..some places maybe 2. As BOX said some models actually spit out .20 qpf over the area.These types of systems have a tendency to be very sneaky and over perform. We've seen it many times over the years. And posters always seem surprised I'll take the under over much of the area east of the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I'll take the under over much of the area east of the Berks. Maybe you are right. Hopefully you are wrong. I think even to the Cape can see a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Maybe you are right. Hopefully you are wrong. I think even to the Cape can see a dusting. I think just about everyone sees a dusting to maybe an inchI just don't think the 0.2" qpf is justified. Doody must see something I don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 How is BOS +1.0 for the month while all other sites in SNE are below normal. That just doesn't make sense. Even NYC is only +0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 I think all of the hilltowns have a very good shot at seeing an inch..some places maybe 2. As BOX said some models actually spit out .20 qpf over the area.These types of systems have a tendency to be very sneaky and over perform. We've seen it many times over the years. And posters always seem surprised We'll see. It's a Peter/Paul situation I think with qpf vs. temp. People like Pete will win out with the temps (upslope wont hurt either), Dave could win out based on a temp/qpf combo. I think I'll lose based on qpf; southern and eastern areas missing based on temp. Hopefully wrong. Either way, a win or loss is a 'no big deal' situtation in the big scheme of things with the amounts we're talking about. 36.0/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 How is BOS +1.0 for the month while all other sites in SNE are below normal. That just doesn't make sense. Even NYC is only +0.2 I spoke about this in the banter thread. It is a little weird, but the only thing I can think of is related to all this high pressure we have had and lack of wind. Basically more radiational cooling nights in which Logan sucks for that. But yeah, I have noticed and it is a little suspicious...but it is also a product of the local site's environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I think just about everyone sees a dusting to maybe an inch I just don't think the 0.2" qpf is justified. Doody must see something I don't Some models do have that much, but mostly on the s coast. Some of this will be wasted in a bit of rain too...but should quickly go to snow where you are I think...especially if it's a heavier burst. I just don't know if this will be wide spread but as usual with these...some places surprised..some get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Scott, would drier soils lead to increased rad cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Scott, would drier soils lead to increased rad cooling? Well it certainly would argue for cooler temps at night, yes. You could also argue it may make for higher temps in the aftn, but the sun angle is very weak so that argument is sort of nullified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 We'll see. It's a Peter/Paul situation I think with qpf vs. temp. People like Pete will win out with the temps (upslope wont hurt either), Dave could win out based on a temp/qpf combo. I think I'll lose based on qpf; southern and eastern areas missing based on temp. Hopefully wrong. Either way, a win or loss is a 'no big deal' situtation in the big scheme of things with the amounts we're talking about. 36.0/26 Its not a big deal for anyone. However the first accumulating snowfall of the season always brings some excitement. Maybe your daughter will be able to sled tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 As far as tonight goes, there are two things going for some minor acc. The soundings are saturated in the snow growth zone with deep RH..but low levels are a bit dry. Secondly, a bit of an unstable near and just above H5. So yes..some areas will probably see a good burst, but it doesn't seem to be a widespread issue to me. It's possible the s coast sees a nice burst of rain to snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 There's nothing wrong with BOS. Most sites across New England and eastern NY are above normal for the month. You will also notice in the data below, places like ISP, BDR, BOS, and PWM are all solidly above normal. Guess what those sites all have in common. PWM +1.0 BOS +0.9 CAR +0.8 MVL +0.8 ISP +0.7 BTV +0.6 BDR +0.5 HUL +0.5 FVE +0.3 MSS +0.3 JFK +0.2 MLT +0.2 NYC +0.2 PBG +0.2 POU +0.2 BGR +0.1 GYX -0.2 LGA -0.2 PVD -0.2 ALY -0.3 BDL -0.4 DDH -0.4 ORH -0.8 PSF -0.8 CON -0.9 1V4 -1.0 GFL -1.0 VSF -1.1 MPV -1.6 SLK -2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Commute could be interesting. Burst if SN+, untreated surfaces, drivers who forget how to handle snow, timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 There's nothing wrong with BOS. Most sites across New England and eastern NY are above normal for the month. You will also notice in the data below, places like ISP, BDR, BOS, and PWM are all solidly above normal. Guess what those sites all have in common? PWM +1.0 BOS +0.9 CAR +0.8 MVL +0.8 ISP +0.7 BTV +0.6 BDR +0.5 HUL +0.5 FVE +0.3 MSS +0.3 JFK +0.2 MLT +0.2 NYC +0.2 PBG +0.2 POU +0.2 BGR +0.1 GYX -0.2 LGA -0.2 PVD -0.2 ALY -0.3 BDL -0.4 DDH -0.4 ORH -0.8 PSF -0.8 CON -0.9 1V4 -1.0 GFL -1.0 VSF -1.1 MPV -1.6 SLK -2.5 I'm talking over the last 4-5 months. It's interesting that they stick out like a sore thumb, but I stated my reasons as to why it may be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I could see a s coast surprise where pretty much nobody is talking about. They may even see some minor acc and most have rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 There's nothing wrong with BOS. Most sites across New England and eastern NY are above normal for the month. You will also notice in the data below, places like ISP, BDR, BOS, and PWM are all solidly above normal. Guess what those sites all have in common. PWM +1.0 BOS +0.9 CAR +0.8 MVL +0.8 ISP +0.7 BTV +0.6 BDR +0.5 HUL +0.5 FVE +0.3 MSS +0.3 JFK +0.2 MLT +0.2 NYC +0.2 PBG +0.2 POU +0.2 BGR +0.1 GYX -0.2 LGA -0.2 PVD -0.2 ALY -0.3 BDL -0.4 DDH -0.4 ORH -0.8 PSF -0.8 CON -0.9 1V4 -1.0 GFL -1.0 VSF -1.1 MPV -1.6 SLK -2.5 There is something very wrong with the siting at logan. All 3 of the other big 4 climo sites in SNE are below normal for the month. They stick out like a sore weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I'm talking over the last 4-5 months. It's interesting that they stick out like a sore thumb, but I stated my reasons as to why it may be so. Here are the departure splits between highs and lows (note these may not add up perfectly to the monthly departures due to rounding) YEAR MON HIGHS LOWS 2013 1 +2.9 +2.1 2013 2 -1.8 +0.7 2013 3 -1.6 +0.5 2013 4 +1.5 +0.1 2013 5 +1.3 +0.5 2013 6 +2.1 +1.6 2013 7 +3.4 +4.0 2013 8 +0.2 -0.1 2013 9 +0.6 -1.1 2013 10 +3.0 +2.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 There is something very wrong with the siting at logan. All 3 of the other big 4 climo sites in SNE are below normal for the month. They stick out like a sore weenie The siting is not the issue wrt the +1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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