CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 LOL, well there is some tropical support so I do think it's possible we see that pattern happen. It's an interesting battle because it's a big cold black hole over eastern Siberia into nrn AK which is what we don't want, but you won't always have a direct connection to that either. It certainly can and does have an effect, but other factors can overpower it. I'm not really sold on that heralding in the dogs of winter quite yet. You can always have a week to 10 days days of fun and then crap to follow. Not being a Debbie..just considering other factors too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'm getting fairly confident of a positive AO winter...most signs point to that right now. However, that doesn't mean we still cannot have fun. 2007-2008, 1992-1993, 1983-1984, 1975-1976, and 1956-1957...and believe it or not 2004-2005 and 2008-2009 were slight +AO winters as defined by DJF...but 2005 had a big -AO in March if you include that month. Keep the big ugly vortex away from the EPO region, and we can still have our fun...esp with latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I will say ,, when I was banished to solitary confinement all the talk and worry was a brutal Nov torch. Then several cold shots popped up due to typhoons recurving and waves breaking. Then a small snow event with local inches or so appeared and the warm mid Nov turned into a day or 2 near 50. Maybe it's too early but it sure seems like things are really breaking our way in the face of what models / energy mets were saying. Usually things trend worse but so far things have trended better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'm getting fairly confident of a positive AO winter...most signs point to that right now. However, that doesn't mean we still cannot have fun. 2007-2008, 1992-1993, 1983-1984, 1975-1976, and 1956-1957...and believe it or not 2004-2005 and 2008-2009 were slight +AO winters as defined by DJF...but 2005 had a big -AO in March if you include that month. Keep the big ugly vortex away from the EPO region, and we can still have our fun...esp with latitude. And I think that's all I really care about. That is not there right now. I'm not biting my nails yet over a +AO. I understand the risks involved, but it's not like an AK vortex in which we are all fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I will say ,, when I was banished to solitary confinement all the talk and worry was a brutal Nov torch. Then several cold shots popped up due to typhoons recurving and waves breaking. Then a small snow event with local inches or so appeared and the warm mid Nov turned into a day or 2 near 50. Maybe it's too early but it sure seems like things are really breaking our way in the face of what models / energy mets were saying. Usually things trend worse but so far things have trended better. I'm gonna still go with AN here, but lately that is an easy call for UHI like Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Snow is coming. Really like the burst of WAA driven precip modeled over the next 12 hours...on an axis from like BTV down into the Lakes Region of NH. Wet bulbs look sufficiently cold (33/26 here) for snow under 1,000ft elevation. BTV going with a widespread 1-4" with the overnight WAA precip: Tonight...Occasional snow. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 90 percent. Maybe even flakes down into northern Mass later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I read that 1993-94 had a slight positive AO. Is that right? Sounds wrong to me but I haven't looked and heading out to movies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'm gonna still go with AN here, but lately that is an easy call for UHI like Logan. BOS will be running negative by Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Euro/GFS ensembles do look nice toward the end of the D10-D15 range. Looks like we pop a -EPO and flip the NAO as well. As we've mentioned though while teleconnections are good... we may struggle getting below average right away as the EPO flips strongly positive around D10 before it eases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 BOS will be running negative by Wednesday morning. We are gonna get pretty mild after next week. Key is what happens after T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I read that 1993-94 had a slight positive AO. Is that right? Sounds wrong to me but I haven't looked and heading out to movies. If you include the month of March the DJFM value would probably yield something pretty close to neutral or even slightly positive but DJF was on the negative side overall. Feb was most neg month Then came March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 We are gonna get pretty mild after next week. Key is what happens after T-day. After Wednesday looks like we get a pretty extended stretch of mild wx. Probably 2 weeks away from getting a change that is favorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 After Wednesday looks like we get a pretty extended stretch of mild wx. Probably 2 weeks away from getting a change that is favorable for us. I think next weeks cold shot is fogging the glasses of some. This had been modeled for days. Lets not have that cloud the forecast. What's more murky is what happens after T day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I think next weeks cold shot is fogging the glasses of some. This had been modeled for days. Lets not have that cloud the forecast. What's more murky is what happens after T day. T day is late too... 11/28! I think the pattern could get more interesting by that week if things line up. At least the +EPO death vortex is not modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Well now this is annoying: temps rising at night to nearly 50 in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Wiz, post the numbers please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 T day is late too... 11/28! I think the pattern could get more interesting by that week if things line up. At least the +EPO death vortex is not modeled. Yeah hopefully that week....was just thinking about things heading towards December. There was some nice warm sub surface water near and west of the dateline which hopefully will help MJO waves move eastZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 40.1 here. Did tickle 39 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Wiz, post the numbers please. Dec: -0.104 Jan: -0.288 Feb: -0.862 Mar: +1.881 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 March '94 is a good example of how a +AO can work with a little ridging in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Im trying to figure out what mets are thinking for the medium range. I notice that on here there is a tendency for mets to " sorta" always have the same ideas wrt where things are going temp wise . Almost like a centralize'd message is deem'd necessary for some reason and im not speaking about accums/qpf for a storm that is imminent , i guess what im saying is do some mets think A/ it may be mild for a cpl days then a mute torch is a def possibility B/ extended mild wx (taken as above seasonal Norm's I ask not to be a pain, but i try to get a idea of where things are going and it seems there is a mixed message at times and then not at other times (when dealing with the same exact period) maybe its a silly question and im alone in this matter. Anyhow , i wonder if there 's a chance of snow showers from s nh to ne mass late tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 March '94 is a good example of how a +AO can work with a little ridging in the west. Yeah if those strong positive height anomalies are located off to the west of Greenland we probably would have seen much more in the way of ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Im trying to figure out what mets are thinking for the medium range. I notice that on here there is a tendency for mets to " sorta" always have the same ideas wrt where things are going temp wise . Almost like a centralize'd message is deem'd necessary for some reason and im not speaking about accums/qpf for a storm that is imminent , i guess what im saying is do some mets think A/ it may be mild for a cpl days then a mute torch is a def possibility B/ extended mild wx (taken as above seasonal Norm's I ask not to be a pain, but i try to get a idea of where things are going and it seems there is a mixed message at times and then not at other times (when dealing with the same exact period) maybe its a silly question and im alone in this matter. Anyhow , i wonder if there 's a chance of snow showers from s nh to ne mass late tonite Well what time range are you thinking? 10 days, 15 days, 30 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 40.1 here. Did tickle 39 earlier.32.3 here. Precip rolling thru soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Well what time range are you thinking? 10 days, 15 days, 30 days? Generally 1 week to 2 weeks out (7-14 ish days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yeah hopefully that week....was just thinking about things heading towards December. There was some nice warm sub surface water near and west of the dateline which hopefully will help MJO waves move eastZ MJO seems to be struggling a bit. Looks like some convection favored in IO but models are all over the place... not very coherent with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 8-15 Both the Euro and GFS ensembles are in really good agreement through D15. Looks like cold shot Tue/Wed followed by an extended moderating trend. Not huge torch but probably an extended period AOA. Seems like the pattern becomes more favorable by Thanksgiving week but even if we flip a -NAO and get some blocking there won't be a ton of cold air over Canada to tap initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 So if we have a -EPO with a +AO this winter would that still be conducive for decent cold in our region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 So if we have a -EPO with a +AO this winter would that still be conducive for decent cold in our region? Yes.... I feel like we've said that many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Besides the inch or so of snow Tuesday,, do we see any signs of a storm or rain thru the holiday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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