November Weather Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

lol.

 

yeah they look pretty warm from about day 9 to day 11-ish but seem too cool off a bit thereafter - at least speaking to the surface temps

 

 

Even 850 goes a bit below average for us after D12...though its pretty marginal. We get just enough stale polar air from Canada to keep us near or below normal at that time...whether we actually realize that come 2 weeks from now it a different question. I think one positive is that we are seeing the lack of a big time +EPO...we get marginally bad for a time before it looks like it starts to improve again...its enough to cut off the arctic air from southern Canada, but northwest Canada remains in the freezer...so it wouldn't take long to release the hounds again.

[powderfreak]

Everything I'm talking about with regards to the NAM is in relation to the arctic front and where it ends up positioning itself over the Western Atlantic Ocean. Baroclinic zone placement matters in this instance as the arctic front brings 850mb temps below -8C, so this boundary impacts our storm potential track and intensity. SO the NAM is almost in range in this topic. We can talk about it, because this forum is about November weather, not just storm next week. While I may overplay the importance of the Gulf Stream, it is important at least in the mesoscale impacts.

It's almost in the NAM range, but then you have to ask yourself the usefulness of the NAM at any time fame, much less the end of its run.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm not more excited about this period for storms as the next guy in this forum. Get over the fact you need to wail on me and make fun of me for voicing my opinion on this opinionated forum. Geez seriously, people need to stop this nonsense. I'm not in it for hyping, I hate hyping scenarios, I just voice the options there are according to model runs. They are not gospel, they are guidance to use to form your forecast. I know where I stand, I don't have a degree, but i have at least some knowledge in this science, so don't discredit me because I voice an opinion that actually agrees with most on here. It doesn't make sense. Sorry for off topic rant.

It is a sign of respect to be wailed on here

You do fine. Just realize the NAM needs to be taken with a bucket of salt. And then only within 3 days or so

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's almost in the NAM range, but then you have to ask yourself the usefulness of the NAM at any time fame, much less the end of its run.

The NAM is very useful

I can make a broach. A pterodactyl.

[moneypitmike]

Looks like the cool shot will be pretty strong but short-lived with a return to rather mild conditions late week.  Yin-Yang.

 

28.5/21

[CoastalWx]

The GEFS have a pretty good pattern shaping up. While not a very strong ridge, it does have a ridge poking through AK while being undercut by a strong Pacific jet. Not the coldest patttern, but certainly would offer cooler weather. The euro ensembles offer some ridging into Greenland albeit not strong and some ridging over SW US. Again it's an ok pattern, but certainly not torchy.

[moneypitmike]

The GEFS have a pretty good pattern shaping up. While not a very strong ridge, it does have a ridge poking through AK while being undercut by a strong Pacific jet. Not the coldest patttern, but certainly would offer cooler weather. The euro ensembles offer some ridging into Greenland albeit not strong and some ridging over SW US. Again it's an ok pattern, but certainly not torchy.

 

How far out are you referring to, Scott?

[CoastalWx]

How far out are you referring to, Scott?

 

I'm talking 2 weeks out. It does look like we will get pretty mild near or just after mid month for a few days and then cool off. Next week looks very chilly. 2M temps in the 30s it seems Tues and Wed.

[ineedsnow]

I love looking at these again! 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131109&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap

[CoastalWx]

Still a band of some shwrs/squalls with this system bringing a cold front through, probably gonna be tough to be all snow lower el/coast.

[moneypitmike]

I love looking at these again! 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131109&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap

 

Nothing says "get excited" louder than a SREF mean that shows .4" of snow 60 hours out with the clustering closer to .2".

 

J/K--it's always fun to see any inklings of snow.  Except when it's a downgrade from earlier forecasts.

[moneypitmike]

Still a band of some shwrs/squalls with this system bringing a cold front through, probably gonna be tough to be all snow lower el/coast.

 

Are you talking about tonight?  Perhaps a few flakes is my guess.

[CoastalWx]

Are you talking about tonight?  Perhaps a few flakes is my guess.

 

No, the true cold fropa Tuesday morning.

[Heisy]

I'm pretty excited for the southern states, think they still have a shot at a small snowstorm which would be incredible for them in early november.

 

Anyway, the 10 day EURO looks interesting if you were to extrapolate it. It would probably form a monster GL storm which could go on to maybe help form a block. 

[CoastalWx]

Some of the higher el Tuesday morning may have to deal with almost a flash freeze on the roads once the precip falls. Could easily be a rain-->snow situation combined with quickly falling temps.  I guess good news is that it falls before 10z or so..but I could see a few tricky spots if certain areas manage a good squall.

[toronto blizzard]

The GEFS have a pretty good pattern shaping up. While not a very strong ridge, it does have a ridge poking through AK while being undercut by a strong Pacific jet. Not the coldest patttern, but certainly would offer cooler weather. The euro ensembles offer some ridging into Greenland albeit not strong and some ridging over SW US. Again it's an ok pattern, but certainly not torchy.

At least the GOAK trough is transient

[CoastalWx]

At least the GOAK trough is transient

It's still not a pattern that gets me excited because we have Pacific flow into NAMR. Maybe we can manage something with split flow, but some work needs to be done. Unfortunately most analogs torch December so we'll see. I guess for you, good news is that the 11-15 day extrapolated out isn't very warm.

[toronto blizzard]

It's still not a pattern that gets me excited because we have Pacific flow into NAMR. Maybe we can manage something with split flow, but some work needs to be done. Unfortunately most analogs torch December so we'll see. I guess for you, good news is that the 11-15 day extrapolated out isn't very warm.

I think we'll start too see the models show more of a ridge out west in the coming days. The PNA is projected to rise to positive around 11/23. Also the AO/NAO are expected to go down. Still not sold on a torch December. There's a good article in the main forum about the OPI suggesting a cold December.

[CoastalWx]

I think we'll start too see the models show more of a ridge out west in the coming days. The PNA is projected to rise to positive around 11/23. Also the AO/NAO are expected to go down. Still not sold on a torch December. There's a good article in the main forum about the OPI suggesting a cold December.

 

I read it and I also am not sold on a torch either. This last week threw a wrench into a lot of things. I think the risk if you will is on the warmer side, but the end of November doesn't really hint at a torch at all.

[moneypitmike]

Some of the higher el Tuesday morning may have to deal with almost a flash freeze on the roads once the precip falls. Could easily be a rain-->snow situation combined with quickly falling temps.  I guess good news is that it falls before 10z or so..but I could see a few tricky spots if certain areas manage a good squall.

 

I remember when I was living in Worcester in either 2003 or 2004 having a flash-freeze situation that took place right at the morning rush.  I had a meeting to get to at Springfield College.  I could hardly get out of my neighborhood.  Coming down Moreland ST and working my way to Chandler ST by Tatnuck Sqauare took about 30 minutes.  If your car had ANY motion going once you got to the hill, you were off to the races.Fortuantley, no cars were moving fast so unless you went sideways, you'd just have light bumper touches.

 

If you know Worcester, it seemed the area east of Park had not frozen.  Regardless, it took me an hour to get out of Worcester.

 

33.9/22, overcast.

[CoastalWx]

I remember when I was living in Worcester in either 2003 or 2004 having a flash-freeze situation that took place right at the morning rush.  I had a meeting to get to at Springfield College.  I could hardly get out of my neighborhood.  Coming down Moreland ST and working my way to Chandler ST by Tatnuck Sqauare took about 30 minutes.  If your car had ANY motion going once you got to the hill, you were off to the races.Fortuantley, no cars were moving fast so unless you went sideways, you'd just have light bumper touches.

 

If you know Worcester, it seemed the area east of Park had not frozen.  Regardless, it took me an hour to get out of Worcester.

 

33.9/22, overcast.

 

December 2003. The cold helped set the stage for the big Dec 5-7 2003 snowstorm.

[toronto blizzard]

I read it and I also am not sold on a torch either. This last week threw a wrench into a lot of things. I think the risk if you will is on the warmer side, but the end of November doesn't really hint at a torch at all.

Yeah and take them FWIW but the CFS v2 is insisting on a cold end of Nov cold start to Dec so we'll see

[CoastalWx]

Yeah and take them FWIW but the CFS v2 is insisting on a cold end of Nov cold start to Dec so we'll see

 

It's mild for December like everything else, but depending on the pattern...it's not the end of the world. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

what a cold shot on the GFS for tue/wed. midday 2-m temps mid 30s at best across SNE. we'll see what actual surface values end up at but that's impressive for 11/13 w/out having some kind of weak mixing day or whatnot

[moneypitmike]

December 2003. The cold helped set the stage for the big Dec 5-7 2003 snowstorm.

 

If you don't know the city of Worcester well, it really is a tough city in snow/ice.  It has steep hills as do the hilltowns.  But, unlike out here in the hinterlands, their streets have intersections and lots of cars.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

If you don't know the city of Worcester well, it really is a tough city in snow/ice. It has steep hills as do the hilltowns. But, unlike out here in the hinterlands, their streets have intersections and lots of cars.

Worcester and Fitchburg suck in the winter for driving

[CoastalWx]

I know ORH well enough. Hills FTL when it comes to driving.

[moneypitmike]

I know ORH well enough. Hills FTL when it comes to driving.

 

In our house there, we had a picture window that provided a view of a corner where cars would turn up our hill.  I never tired of watching them during storms making that turn, struggle for a couple minutes, and then back down to try their "plan b" route.

 

I'm easily amused.

 

35.1/22

[Typhoon Tip]

December 2003. The cold helped set the stage for the big Dec 5-7 2003 snowstorm.

 

One thing I always remember about that was the GGEM.    When that event was still some 9 days out, the Canadian model was bringing a tropical system out of the western Caribbean, up across eastern Cuba, through the Bahamas, and then hooking left and fusing with a cold core system. 

 

Sound familiar...?  

 

I recall discussing that with Leonard way back then, in the context of, "could it ever happen"    Thing is, that was for an early December system with cold thickness in place.  Sandy really only indirectly contributed to the snows in W VA.  Contrasting, the crazy Canadian of 2003 was like a 955mb blizzard that started out as a bona fide 'cane.   Ah, nope -- still, what Sandy did similar.  

 

I always thought that was interesting.    Anyway, of course what ultimately happened in 2003 was not a TC infusion thing at all.  The TC the GGEM was trying to infuse was Odette.   

 

 I recently read some study that it is estimated that Sandy was a 1 in 500 year event.  I think it is interesting, then, that it seems just about every autumn at one point or another a model tries to do it.   Seems the guidance would want to argue that it happens more frequently.

[weathafella]

In our house there, we had a picture window that provided a view of a corner where cars would turn up our hill.  I never tired of watching them during storms making that turn, struggle for a couple minutes, and then back down to try their "plan b" route.

 

I'm easily amused.

 

35.1/22

I remember that flash freeze well. I was walking to work and hit black ice and did a full Dixie. Didn't hit my head but I recall thinking "now I know why the old folks go to FL"

A few days later I headed to DFW ultimately getting stranded and missing one of the great December storms.