powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Fracasso brings up a good point ... Yeah, we've mentioned the baroclinic zone with that type of airmass and still warm waters. The thickness packing along the coast tells the tale in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Good to be back, eh? I love winter. GFS is running ;no play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 .58 on the day, not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 18z gfs congrats CYYT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Getting people asking me questions about a possible blizzard next week or major snowstorm This time of year can be so ridiculous when it comes to weather. A computer model will show some crazy solution and social media goes nuts and then some forecasters out there will also make mention and then all hell breaks loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 TWC partly to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Not sure what will come of the storm, odds I'm sure favor not much. Will be nice to have a mid winter feel to next week nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 TWC partly to blame. Social media as well. Like the facebook group, Northeast Storm Center...what a joke. Posting an image of Euro snowfall map for next week and it's creating a major buzz. Why don't people pay closer attention to what matters most, upper air pattern and synoptics rather than graphical outputs of garbage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 TWC partly to blame. Social media as well. Like the facebook group, Northeast Storm Center...what a joke. Posting an image of Euro snowfall map for next week and it's creating a major buzz. Why don't people pay closer attention to what matters most, upper air pattern and synoptics rather than graphical outputs of garbage? Lol. Like you don't hump severe a week out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Lol. Like you don't hump severe a week out.... I don't go around on social media saying we're getting tornadoes or widespread wind damage, or destructive hail. I may go crazy a bit on here but not to the public. I also try my best to clarify that not everyone will see storms or strong storms or sever weather but that any storm that does develop could have the potential to reach those limits. I did, however, leading up to 6/1 post images on facebook of hodographs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 That was an interesting read from the OPI guys. It sounds like the window is open for some colder wx perhaps not just in December either. I guess we'll see. Lots of things also argue for a milder December. Although, weeklies are starting to cool in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Social media as well. Like the facebook group, Northeast Storm Center...what a joke. Posting an image of Euro snowfall map for next week and it's creating a major buzz. Why don't people pay closer attention to what matters most, upper air pattern and synoptics rather than graphical outputs of garbage? Well, respected mets (by some) like DT post model output. That grabs the attention. Only then do people (possibly) read the fine print Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I don't go around on social media saying we're getting tornadoes or widespread wind damage, or destructive hail. I may go crazy a bit on here but not to the public. I also try my best to clarify that not everyone will see storms or strong storms or sever weather but that any storm that does develop could have the potential to reach those limits. I did, however, leading up to 6/1 post images on facebook of hodographs I am sure that got a lot of folks scratching their head when they saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I did, however, leading up to 6/1 post images on facebook of hodographs Lol...and then you missed it literally selling hot dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 That was an interesting read from the OPI guys. It sounds like the window is open for some colder wx perhaps not just in December either. I guess we'll see. Lots of things also argue for a milder December. Although, weeklies are starting to cool in early December. Just as long as it's not an all torch kind of winter. Although, even in the warmest of winters, it's still difficult not to get a colder period, even if it's brief. Too be honest though, given our latitude, all I really care about is how active the storm pattern is. Even if we are around normal to slightly above, we can still do very well in the snow department b/c of our latitude. Even if it is mainly warm, it all depends too on what occurs in the transition phases. If Dec comes in above-average overall but we had a transition period where it was average to slightly below, and that period delivers quite well, does it matter if the month ended with a positive temp departure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well, respected mets (by some) like DT post model output. That grabs the attention. Only then do people (possibly) read the fine print I find nothing wrong with posting model images but something like a model snowfall graphic is just terrible b/c you can have the greatest discussion ever, people aren't going to read it. Post like a 500mb image instead. If I was a met forecasting for the public, what I would be doing is mention there is potential for a stormy period next week, however, at this time the details aren't very clear but we will continue to monitor as as details become clearer to us, we will keep you updated." I am sure that got a lot of folks scratching their head when they saw that Definitely lol Lol...and then you missed it literally selling hot dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 That was an interesting read from the OPI guys. It sounds like the window is open for some colder wx perhaps not just in December either. I guess we'll see. Lots of things also argue for a milder December. Although, weeklies are starting to cool in early December.It sure was interesting, looks like a winner. I mean pretty much showing what is happening now, AK ridge, NW territories feed in the NE. Anectodal on my part but familiar to my 60 s memories. Cold with some mild ups, Alberta Clippers and Miller Bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 definitely a more transient warm up look developing on the ensembles after our strong cold shot next week...its been a fun week of trends to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Interesting outlook from new theory based on OPI just posted, basically cold early start, mild mid, cold end http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/#entry2464681 Send this poster an invitation... http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=60ef3af74c085ca378261cf95eee1911&action=profile;u=198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well, respected mets (by some) like DT post model output. That grabs the attention. Only then do people (possibly) read the fine print I despise that fine print stuff. Post Euro snow maps with 2 feet then say, "this isn't my forecast, just saying." Well then why post it? Clearly it was so people would see it, think storm, and start following your personal forecast. Not everyone is as well informed as the posters on this board, they don't know any better when it comes to the info they see online. This "event" isn't really even on my radar yet anyway, it's just throwing darts at this point. I would much rather spend some time looking at 290 K isentrope to look at possible snowfall Saturday night. Unfortunately, that upglide is mostly located over NNE so I can see how there is lament for the majority of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 0z Euro is a big hit for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 0z Euro is a big hit for the coast It sure is fun to track something, haven't been able to do it for over half a year. Cooling quickly 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 if only it were next tue...and not friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yeah I'll have to call BS on that run..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well today my first 6+ euro prog of the season. But to me the bigger issue is the shot of snow on virtually all guidance d4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well today my first 6+ euro prog of the season. But to me the bigger issue is the shot of snow on virtually all guidance d4-5. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 ?? Anafrontal. Euro ensembles have the d6-7 low but well east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well today my first 6+ euro prog of the season. But to me the bigger issue is the shot of snow on virtually all guidance d4-5. Well pin the tail on where this ends up for next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well today my first 6+ euro prog of the season. But to me the bigger issue is the shot of snow on virtually all guidance d4-5. I don't see much of anything happening then, but I'll take whatever I can get. What does seem to be close to a lock is the depth of the cold next week. Anything else will be a bonus. Well pin the tail on where this ends up for next 3 days Yup. 29.9/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Euro has flakes as does the always reliable navgem in the time frame of the images in my above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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