powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Snowing in DC while raining on Powderfreak...hey, you never know. Wouldn't be the first time... Good memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 you have to stop. Stop what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I thought the EURO was going to show a wide right scenario, but I guess I was wrong. Anyways I think having something in the models to track is the most anyone can ask for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 0.09" of rain here. 33% more than me--congrats??? Clearly there's all sorts of bouncing around going on with regard to next week as would be expected at this point in time. It's great to have the general agreement that the ingredients are there. If, how, and where will be fun to watch as we move along. Meanwhile, enjoyed my 6 hours of not tending to a fire. Just had to relight them. Last time fire-free until April??? 46.7/41, the 18mph gust I recorded is pretty good for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Stop what? The bad analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wouldn't be the first time... Good memories anotherbomb_radar.jpg Would be fun to do that again. November 1950 was too far west for both of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well it rained enough to wet the groung ugh its dry. Lol at the euro many more changes to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Even though it may be too early to determine the surface high placement as well, the euro shows a banana high over the surface low developing in GA at hour 144. I think this is a wide right solution, but the parameters are becoming apparent. You need to have confidence in the Gulf Stream. Wouldn't be the first time... Good memories anotherbomb_radar.jpg Horrible, just horrible. The cooler air slowly but surely moving east. 46.4/41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 anyone got some images of the 11/50 storm that everyone's referencing? ha, i only made 1 and it was a joke. 11/50 - just google it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Bad analysis when I said the PNA ridging would allow a disturbance to dig as far south as the EURO shows, I just didn't think it would wind up like it does on the EURO, my bad for the bad analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 ha, i only made 1 and it was a joke. 11/50 - just google it. http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/078/mwr-078-11-0204.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 moonbat euro solution aside, it's interesting that each of the next 3 cold shots seems to have gained some strength on modeling vs a few days ago. tomorrow's, sunday PMs and then Tue / Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 moonbat euro solution aside, it's interesting that each of the next 3 cold shots seems to have gained some strength on modeling vs a few days ago. tomorrow's, sunday PMs and then Tue / Wed. The EPO ridge spiking up temporarily is almost certainly helping with that. That's a pretty good ridge up there right now...before it breaks down, it dumps some serious cold into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 .44 in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 .44 in the bucket Almost rainy storm warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Almost rainy storm warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Impressive Euro solution. Given the ridging over the N. Pacific, I could a scenario where a bowling ball vort comes around the base of that trough next week. That said, ECMWF has a bias of holding energy back in this type of flow, which allows this thing to round the trough and slow down. Not buying that wound up of a solution. If anything I think it'd be somewhat farther south and east. Just my thoughts after analyzing this pattern this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DT all over this on Facebook... lol, he's going nuts right now. So much for not fanning any hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wouldnt the highly anomalous amplification of the pattern and near record cold forecast to be available argue for potential for a moonbat solution to be less moonbat. I mean not that anyone knows where but this isn't the fin model showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DT all over this on Facebook... lol, he's going nuts right now. So much for not fanning any hype. Kooky kind of guy. All that bashing of JB over the years and he gets his maps from him. Meanwhile 195 sustained and Josh is in its direct path, typhoon Yolanda to the islanders will be tragic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wouldnt the highly anomalous amplification of the pattern and near record cold forecast to be available argue for potential for a moonbat solution to be less moonbat. I mean not that anyone knows where but this isn't the fin model showing something. All the models show potential for a cutoff ULL , where it sets up, how the LP translates are days away from becoming feasible. Check back Sunday night. Right now I would say, its gonna get cold and flakes are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Kooky kind of guy. All that bashing of JB over the years and he gets his maps from him. lol... the funny thing is that yesterday he made this big deal about why there's no chance for that storm to happen. I don't read all of what he writes but some of these headlines that show up on social media feeds are pretty funny. Yesterday: "WHY THERE IS **NOT *** A MASSIVE CRIPPLING BIG EAST COAST SNOWSTORM COMING NOV 13-14 FOR THE EAST COAST" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That image is just jaw dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Kooky kind of guy. All that bashing of JB over the years and he gets his maps from him. Meanwhile 195 sustained and Josh is in its direct path, typhoon Yolanda to the islanders will be tragic LOL. good point. as to the posting of that stuff, i can't get over the constant need for people to be "first". actually getting something right doesn't even matter anymore. it's weird. i'll occasionally make a public comment on long-range fantasy storms, but try hard to make sure the sarcasm is obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 All the models show potential for a cutoff ULL , where it sets up, how the LP translates are days away from becoming feasible. Check back Sunday night. Right now I would say, its gonna get cold and flakes are possible. Yeah that's all you can say at this point. Flakes should come from some feature or another but whether its just flurries and snow showers or something more organized is what to watch for. I think regardless, that boundary on Monday into Monday night brings first flakes for a lot of folks. Also the trajectory of the westerly winds ahead of the boundary seem to entrain some Great Lake moisture that may help the situation, though that may more affect western New England or eastern New York if any lake moisture can make it down I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'm recording higher gusts today than I did last week when they were calling for 45mph. Gusting to 21mph so far. 44.1/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 FWIW, the UKIMET has a GGEM type solution...more of an overrunning wave transitioning into a coastal further SE. Would be a moderate snow event for SNE from the looks of it. We essentially have about a 600 mile envelope of solutions on 12z guidance which says all you need to know about forecasting a storm 6+ days out. Does anyone remember the Dec 26-27 event last winter that had a low bombing through Chicago 6 days out? This is what actually happened: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2012/us1227.php One thing that IS becoming more certain is a very anomalous cold shot...likely even more anomalous southwest of here than for us...but even here there could be some records challenged if guidance stays on course with the magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wouldn't be the first time... Good memories anotherbomb_radar.jpg That's a sad thing to archive... I liked what happened 2 days later though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 FWIW, the UKIMET has a GGEM type solution...more of an overrunning wave transitioning into a coastal further SE. Would be a moderate snow event for SNE from the looks of it. We essentially have about a 600 mile envelope of solutions on 12z guidance which says all you need to know about forecasting a storm 6+ days out. Does anyone remember the Dec 26-27 event last winter that had a low bombing through Chicago 6 days out? This is what actually happened: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2012/us1227.php One thing that IS becoming more certain is a very anomalous cold shot...likely even more anomalous southwest of here than for us...but even here there could be some records challenged if guidance stays on course with the magnitude. yeah it's sort of lost in the storm talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 FWIW, the UKIMET has a GGEM type solution...more of an overrunning wave transitioning into a coastal further SE. Would be a moderate snow event for SNE from the looks of it. We essentially have about a 600 mile envelope of solutions on 12z guidance which says all you need to know about forecasting a storm 6+ days out. Does anyone remember the Dec 26-27 event last winter that had a low bombing through Chicago 6 days out? This is what actually happened: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2012/us1227.php One thing that IS becoming more certain is a very anomalous cold shot...likely even more anomalous southwest of here than for us...but even here there could be some records challenged if guidance stays on course with the magnitude. At least we won"t be discussing much about temps this week though,ha. like Scooter said about time synoptic meteorology is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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