Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I dunno -- I've evolved some doubts, and for what I feel are good reasons to be suspect of warm departures. First of all ..the sensible tempo/observation of details in the behavior of the warm teleconnectors has muted a little. Second of all, the EPO in not being well handled from about the ides of October until now. It has been repeatedly neutralized or eradicated into a positive phase state, only to come thundering back ...almost completely blind to the ensembles of either side of the pond. Looking at the AB phase of the north Pacific, I see future dips in the EPO as more probable than not. Thirdly ...well, perhaps first of all part b, the NAO is now got multi-ensemble member support for a negative depature beginning on the 15th of the month. Erstwhile ... Canada is being charged with cold by negative EPO. That's a relay there. EPO to NAO. Hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Radar looks good , nice to have an overachiever, offshore robbing did not happen. Good news ginxy...you may be the most optimistic person i know. good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 ginxy...you may be the most optimistic person i know. good for you. Lol, I have had .31 so far, was expecting .1, ground needed wetting , fire danger was getting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 cold shot coming in tonight - Sat has some legs to it. not as cold as this past one but tomorrow night will be chilly with combo of wind/temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Typhhon Tip is going to need a new name HAIYAN just doesn't flow though, looks like it may break the record for strongest on record, hopefully we get some hard measurements on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Its raining pretty good right now here in BOS....good to see. Some nice moisture training into eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 people are going to know it when that polar boundary crosses their area....from the Midwest right into New England. That's a real deal fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Radar looks good , nice to have an overachiever, offshore robbing did not happen. Good news 0.09" of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Never thought I'd see the day when .10 of rain was an overachiever, but I'll take it. Need something to soak in the winter fertilizer that's been sitting for 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GEFS trying to pop a -NAO post D10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 lol...euro will probably cut this thing up the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 snow into GA. sure why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The fact that both the GGEM and GFS model runs as of 12z runs show roughly the same setup with differences in the minute details, and upon waiting on the EURO for some continued support, the Northeastern Pacific Ocean pattern looks favorable for a storm here in the 6-9 day range. Whether or not it happens or just goes offshore the region time will tell, but models in all groups are beginning to pick up on this signal. That's the good news, the bad news is that its still a good 6-7 days away from real time, and right now the models aren't picking up on the right details. THis doesn't mean I think its a good chance of happening, I just think the chances are better than they have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 congrats Duck Dynasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 EURO at hour 120, look at that PNA (Rockies) ridge, all the way up into Northern Canada. I think this makes it on the EURO. At least it digs pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 snow into GA. sure why not. Congrats Atlanta on this run....the sad thing is that isn't even a joke, lol. It actually gives them snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Congrats Atlanta on this run....the sad thing is that isn't even a joke, lol. It actually gives them snow. i know...look at the cold down there. sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 EURO has a pretty impressive 850mb temp gradient in place at hour 120, windex event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 LOL, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 euro is trying to go 11/50-redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 EURO at hour 120, look at that PNA (Rockies) ridge, all the way up into Northern Canada. I think this makes it on the EURO. At least it digs pretty far south. Nah, the main energy is cutting off too far south for us...which is ok in my book. That's an extreme southern solution. Given the timeframe and complexity of the setup, there's an eternity for major model shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Nah, the main energy is cutting off too far south for us...which is ok in my book. That's an extreme southern solution. Given the timeframe and complexity of the setup, there's an eternity for major model shifts. Even if it is too far south for us, the PNA ridging has to be a major plus for a storm. The tendency for the models seeing the PNA ridge will be to dig the disturbance further south, whether or not it happens in Mid November is a different story. However the signal is there for some very cold air coming to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 lol at the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Even though it may be too early to determine the surface high placement as well, the euro shows a banana high over the surface low developing in GA at hour 144. I think this is a wide right solution, but the parameters are becoming apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 lol at the Euro Snowing in DC while raining on Powderfreak...hey, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Even though it may be too early to determine the surface high placement as well, the euro shows a banana high over the surface low developing in GA at hour 144. I think this is a wide right solution, but the parameters are becoming apparent. Its anything but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Even though it may be too early to determine the surface high placement as well, the euro shows a banana high over the surface low developing in GA at hour 144. I think this is a wide right solution, but the parameters are becoming apparent. you have to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 ginxy...you may be the most optimistic person i know. good for you. Haha, he has to balance out all of us so called curmudgeons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Exactly, mini drills are over, no more two a days. Starting to see the changes in ens modeling we talked about in regards to teleconnections for the end of the month. The transition warm period still on the books but the here and now has suddenly got all our attention. Sometimes in these heavy technical discussions you read across the board the trees are missed looking at the forest.Same people claimed they have been bored since spring are aggravated theres a threat now I'm confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 anyone got some images of the 11/50 storm that everyone's referencing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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