ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 You may still be laughed at taking that seriously, lol. I think folks in the northeast weather world are just that bored and antsy for something to happen that it could get out of control quickly if some sort of event were to take place. Even a 6-inch snowfall would likely be hyped into something monstrous with the way folks are just itching for some weather to talk/hype up. Yeah this is definitely true to some extent...the weather has been so incredibly "boring", that even a moderate snowstorm would be hyped obscenely. It would feel like a blizzard and massive event compared to the monotany of the pattern since last spring which seems to favor "uninteresting". On a side note, the 12z GGEM has what I was talking to Scott about with the ULL...it doesn't dive as far south and as a result, southern New England gets a nice snow event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah this is definitely true to some extent...the weather has been so incredibly "boring", that even a moderate snowstorm would be hyped obscenely. It would feel like a blizzard and massive event compared to the monotany of the pattern since last spring which seems to favor "uninteresting". On a side note, the 12z GGEM has what I was talking to Scott about with the ULL...it doesn't dive as far south and as a result, southern New England gets a nice snow event out of it. Yeah look at that. Nice little evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 You may still be laughed at taking that seriously, lol. I think folks in the northeast weather world are just that bored and antsy for something to happen that it could get out of control quickly if some sort of event were to take place. Even a 6-inch snowfall would likely be hyped into something monstrous with the way folks are just itching for some weather to talk/hype up.Violently disagree , if the context is a 6 inch snowfall from a system without much further potential (qpf wise). If we have a wound up snow bomb in 3 days across modeling what would the appropriate response be. What was the appropriate response 3 days before Snowtober in 2011, i would argue we should be more apt to toss climo out window and forecast that storm based on the modeled air mass (esp for the interior) not the calendar month. As of now like Will says we watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah this is definitely true to some extent...the weather has been so incredibly "boring", that even a moderate snowstorm would be hyped obscenely. It would feel like a blizzard and massive event compared to the monotany of the pattern since last spring which seems to favor "uninteresting". On a side note, the 12z GGEM has what I was talking to Scott about with the ULL...it doesn't dive as far south and as a result, southern New England gets a nice snow event out of it. It also seems to have a better s/w in terms of vorticity closer to say KCLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Violently disagree , if the context is a 6 inch snowfall from a system without much further potential (qpf wise). If we have a wound up snow bomb in 3 days across modeling what would the appropriate response be. What was the appropriate response 3 days before Snowtober in 2011, i would argue we should be more apt to toss climo out window and forecast that storm based on the modeled air mass (esp for the interior) not the calendar month. You are confusing being 156 hours out vs 72 hours out. Let's just revisit it when we are 3-days out. You really think we should be hyping this on 150 hour progs? No one said anything about being shown a bomb 3-days out and canceling it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Also looks like we have spread in the ensembles. Suprise right? Well the mean definitely has members west of the op it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 CMC has a swath of overrunning precip across the area most of which is snow 132-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It also seems to have a better s/w in terms of vorticity closer to say KCLE. It is sort of an overrunning wave evolving on the GGEM vs a pure coastal...but a good look for us. We'll just have to keep track of where the ULL tracks and how much vort energy lags behind it...and of course, a lot of this depends on the N PAC mess. At least its worth watching the models come out now in real time...always fun to have that begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah this is definitely true to some extent...the weather has been so incredibly "boring", that even a moderate snowstorm would be hyped obscenely. It would feel like a blizzard and massive event compared to the monotany of the pattern since last spring which seems to favor "uninteresting". On a side note, the 12z GGEM has what I was talking to Scott about with the ULL...it doesn't dive as far south and as a result, southern New England gets a nice snow event out of it. Yeah and it all starts with that WINDEXY looking front along/near that -10C 850 line. That's probably the easier way to get snow than to bank on a big bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It is sort of an overrunning wave evolving on the GGEM vs a pure coastal...but a good look for us. We'll just have to keep track of where the ULL tracks and how much vort energy lags behind it...and of course, a lot of this depends on the N PAC mess. At least its worth watching the models come out now in real time...always fun to have that begin. Yeah a lot of the models last night had that signal before the ULL completely digs to China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 You are confusing being 156 hours out vs 72 hours out. Let's just revisit it when we are 3-days out. You really think we should be hyping this on 150 hour progs? No one said anything about being shown a bomb 3-days out and canceling it, lol. I dont think u follow me. Where did i ever say this should be hyped ? What i said was i dont think this wx board will hype a 6 inch snow storm into a blizzard, the memebers here are not morons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah and it all starts with that WINDEXY looking front along/near that -10C 850 line. That's probably the easier way to get snow than to bank on a big bomb. Not to say it happens, god I hope you me better than that, but many of our great snowstorms begin with an arctic intrusion with those -10/-15s 850 lines flowing through. Probably the most extreme example was Jan 2005, had a super squall come through that night then of course what happened next is historical. I really have a windex fetish as you know. should be a good one for you NNE guys and maybe I can sneak one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I dont think u follow me. Where did i ever say this should be hyped ? What i said was i dont think this wx board will hype a 6 inch snow storm into a blizzard, the memebers here are not morons Apparently a lot do think that. Shh don't talk about 168 hr snow possibilities but go on and on about 11-15 day fantasy torches, LOL Speaking of which, muted and pushed back on the overnight runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I dont think u follow me. Where did i ever say this should be hyped ? What i said was i dont think this wx board will hype a 6 inch snow storm into a blizzard, the memebers here are not morons nope missed that completely. Anyway banter thread material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Apparently a lot do think that. Shh don't talk about 168 hr snow possibilities but go on and on about 11-15 day fantasy torches, LOL Speaking of which, muted and pushed back on the overnight runs.. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z GFS is a whiff........we toss. lol. Sorry. Let's all wait for the Euro to come in and see what it's got. Plus at this time range we should be more worried about the ensembles and not the operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Apparently a lot do think that. Shh don't talk about 168 hr snow possibilities but go on and on about 11-15 day fantasy torches, LOL Speaking of which, muted and pushed back on the overnight runs.. Saying you think above average temps are favored post 11/15 is way different than hyping a snowstorm 180 hours out...one is a deterministic discussion versus a probabilistic discussion. Model ensembles have a higher skill at forecasting a long wave pattern at 10-12 days out versus the nuanced and detail-oriented shortwaves and synoptics that go with forecasting a snowstorm at 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Not to say it happens, god I hope you me better than that, but many of our great snowstorms begin with an arctic intrusion with those -10/-15s 850 lines flowing through. Probably the most extreme example was Jan 2005, had a super squall come through that night then of course what happened next is historical. I really have a windex fetish as you know. should be a good one for you NNE guys and maybe I can sneak one in. Yeah those are the best if sufficient moisture can get behind the front...but I too love seeing -10C air involved. Usually spells good snow growth but more so to you, the boundary between cold air and warm ocean is really tight. Notice the thickness packing along SNE in that time frame. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The model changes for next week have been nothing short of astounding since Monday. Monday morning featured a classic SE ridge with a -PNA teleconnection. Today where is a SE trough I think it all stemmed from ther strong Aleutian ridge breaking and causing the trough in the west to pinch off with some of the energy cutting SW towards Hawaii and therefore a much weaker western trough. Now we have a high amplitude wave pattern of ridge-trough-ridge-trough etc that is helping to cause the area of low pressure over the east. Still a high spread in the Pacific so perhaps we aren't done with the rollercoaster. Bingo! the winning observation. This was becoming evident in the model runs late last week as a series of outside sliders were actually teleconnecting to a modest ridge along the front range of the Rockies. What's also happened since is that the ridge broke in the EPO domain, so the general circulation features more NW tendencies through Canada. We don't get warm with those sorts of large scale features in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Saying you think above average temps are favored post 11/15 is way different than hyping a snowstorm 180 hours out...one is a deterministic discussion versus a probabilistic discussion. Model ensembles have a higher skill at forecasting a long wave pattern at 10-12 days out versus the nuanced and detail-oriented shortwaves and synoptics that go with forecasting a snowstorm at 180 hours. I kid was busting PFs comment to Pickles. It gonna snow though, little or a lot, great pattern for flakes in the air better than the SE ridge model ens had 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's coming. Oh I agree but seems muted more. The warm period will not be denied but in what form, certainly not the flooded Canada torch as originally portrayed. Keep an eye on that AO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I kid was busting PFs comment to Pickles. It gonna snow though, little or a lot, great pattern for flakes in the air better than the SE ridge model ens had 3 days ago. Yes, at the very least even if we don't get much of anything here, we'll have plenty of powderfreak Stowe pics as they should get a couple shots of snow (first this weekend, then next week with the arctic front). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Social media FTL...I cringe at how much attention a 180 hour storm was getting yesterday. There was a time very recently when you'd be laughed off the forum for trying to take that seriously. There's definitely a signal for cold and a muddier looking signal for a system...but its so far out that getting more specific is silly. I'd probably just say its going to be quite cold and there is an outside potential for some wintry precip if things break right next week and leave it at that in terms of telling anything to the public. There are those times when a 180 hour lead prospect comes along with more confidence than normal. This system was/is NOT one of those times. Not sure what people are seeing/believing, but there are 10 reasons to lower confidence and about 1 or 2 to raise. I think (well...no worth much) but it seems to me that there are those that just want winter and cold so badly that there is less objectivity, and I don't believe that fault is confined to weeniesphere, either. There are those in all walks of the field, from media to government to social media and back, guilty of hyping things they want to happen -- even if they don't, they are biased. Their observations are filtered through the lens of their personal desires. Some post on here a page or so ago wrote something to the affect of, "I could see this storm happening" -- eyes roll. Really ? 2 feet of snow on the shores of the Chesapeake in mid Novie. Okay. Not to mention the ferkokta way in which the models evolve the deep layer... If there were ever a candidate for ignoring until it is D4 at the earliest, this is the front runner to win that election!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yes, at the very least even if we don't get much of anything here, we'll have plenty of powderfreak Stowe pics as they should get a couple shots of snow (first this weekend, then next week with the arctic front). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah and it all starts with that WINDEXY looking front along/near that -10C 850 line. That's probably the easier way to get snow than to bank on a big bomb. For you...... What a bust on the rain. .06" 48.3/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Oh I agree but seems muted more. The warm period will not be denied but in what form, certainly not the flooded Canada torch as originally portrayed. Keep an eye on that AO.... You may like the long range look of the GEFS which are trying to hint at a weak -NAO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 You may like the long range look of the GEFS which are trying to hint at a weak -NAO ridging. LOl yea I saw that, hey pretty steady rain here up to .29 for the day, more than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yes, at the very least even if we don't get much of anything here, we'll have plenty of powderfreak Stowe pics as they should get a couple shots of snow (first this weekend, then next week with the arctic front). Love it. I'll try to get a picnic table shot for Coastalwx, too. Man-made snow on tables doesn't count though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Radar looks good , nice to have an overachiever, offshore robbing did not happen. Good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Oh I agree but seems muted more. The warm period will not be denied but in what form, certainly not the flooded Canada torch as originally portrayed. Keep an eye on that AO.... I dunno -- I've evolved some doubts, and for what I feel are good reasons to be suspect of warm departures. First of all ..the sensible tempo/observation of details in the behavior of the warm teleconnectors has muted a little. Second of all, the EPO in not being well handled from about the ides of October until now. It has been repeatedly neutralized or eradicated into a positive phase state, only to come thundering back ...almost completely blind to the ensembles of either side of the pond. Looking at the AB phase of the north Pacific, I see future dips in the EPO as more probable than not. Thirdly ...well, perhaps first of all part b, the NAO is now got multi-ensemble member support for a negative depature beginning on the 15th of the month. Erstwhile ... Canada is being charged with cold by negative EPO. That's a relay there. EPO to NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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