Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yes, the rate of change definitely has the highest correlation versus just overall extent. We did very well in overall extent for Eurasion snow cover this October...it was 4th highest....but the rate of change was pretty subdued.There are some very different thoughts in the research about regions and extent versus rate of change. Those papers have made a point in there presentations. I have not seen correlation comparisons between the research , where could I find that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Weird setup tomorrow... we make get whiffed pretty good as a weak offshore low tries to take over. All the models seem to screw SNE and keep the best stuff offshore as the front moved through.Been a theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Been a theme As our favorite member would say "drought begets drought" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This area is so dry it's not even funny. Actual streams are literally drying up in November. Seems like the forcing is coming from a pretty solid area of DCVA - as soon as that sniffs the low static stability out over the warm ocean the convection and pressure drops should go to town. Probably "robs" us of a lot of the moisture tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Seems like the forcing is coming from a pretty solid area of DCVA - as soon as that sniffs the low static stability out over the warm ocean the convection and pressure drops should go to town. Probably "robs" us of a lot of the moisture tomorrow. Models have been insistent on that secondary band just east of here. Really weird to see this type of dryness in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 There are some very different thoughts in the research about regions and extent versus rate of change. Those papers have made a point in there presentations. I have not seen correlation comparisons between the research , where could I find that? Well, on page 2 of the Cohen et al study, they compare the Snow Advance Index versus the Snow Cover Index and show the r values for each over time...clearly the SAI does better: http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/CohenandJones_GRL11.pdf The Snow Cover Index (total October snow cover in Eurasia) still does well, but just not as well as the SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 As our favorite member would say "drought begets drought"IDK about that but we need to break the pattern and what better way than with a block buster snowstorm. At some point it will precip consistently hopefully sooner than later. Brush fires are on the uptick.Still tons of dead wood around from the parade of storms in the last two years, with all vegetation dead, dry air and wind its a potentially dangerous time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Models have been insistent on that secondary band just east of here. Really weird to see this type of dryness in November. Yeah I see 2 rivers in CT at record low levels for the day. As for that second band... it's pretty strange looking but all models have it. The higher res models really like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Weird setup tomorrow... we make get whiffed pretty good as a weak offshore low tries to take over. All the models seem to screw SNE and keep the best stuff offshore as the front moved through. Given the severe dryness of the last 4-5 months, that would not surprise me in the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 To say that the medium range forecast is complicated would be an understatement. There are some very interesting interactions going on in the eastern Pacific a couple of days before the GFS forecasted snowstorm ... which by the way, originates from the PV filament across BC and Alberta. I can't begin to discuss the full evolution of things here, except to say that all of this connects to multiple significant extratropical cyclogenesis events northeast of Japan in the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 To say that the medium range forecast is complicated would be an understatement. There are some very interesting interactions going on in the eastern Pacific a couple of days before the GFS forecasted snowstorm ... which by the way, originates from the PV filament across BC and Alberta. I can't begin to discuss the full evolution of things here, except to say that all of this connects to multiple significant extratropical cyclogenesis events northeast of Japan in the next 3 days. dtpres_npac_75.gif Surfs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Goal, but I wil not banter or even talk about it anymore. Most impressive GFS run of the year for your ski area. I'm heading skiing this weekend. Get some early season in with the oldest. It is amazing how quickly they power down the snow with some cold weather and if the longer range progs are close to right they'll be well ahead of last year as we head into early December. I like that we're seeing a reverse of last year with potential longer periods of warmth being muted vs extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well lets mute 11/15 -11/25 warmth for at least nne skiing. Tomm will also do a bit of damage i think but at least it wont be 63 @ 6am like last friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well lets mute 11/15 -11/25 warmth for at least nne skiing. Tomm will also do a bit of damage i think but at least it wont be 63 @ 6am like last friday BTW it's interesting that in the last few days several different resorts changed their approach. A few were pushing for openings towards the later prat of the month or weren't planning on making much snow I presume based on the warmer weather pending. About 24-36 hours ago I noticed places like Loon went full on with the snowmaking and are now planning on 10 or so trails this weekend. Seems like their forecasters are maybe thinking it's not a lost cause to lay down snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 BTW it's interesting that in the last few days several different resorts changed their approach. A few were pushing for openings towards the later prat of the month or weren't planning on making much snow I presume based on the warmer weather pending. About 24-36 hours ago I noticed places like Loon went full on with the snowmaking and are now planning on 10 or so trails this weekend. Seems like their forecasters are maybe thinking it's not a lost cause to lay down snow now. Well if the post-11/15 warmup plays out right, NNE (and possibly down here too) may only be a bit above average versus an all out furnace. With the obscene amounts of snow they shouldbe able to make over the next week, it would easily survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well if the post-11/15 warmup plays out right, NNE (and possibly down here too) may only be a bit above average versus an all out furnace. With the obscene amounts of snow they shouldbe able to make over the next week, it would easily survive.Plus that early stuff they put down is like molasses, you can always tell at the end of the year when you hit early season machine snow its much stickier. Isn't this great discussing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well if the post-11/15 warmup plays out right, NNE (and possibly down here too) may only be a bit above average versus an all out furnace. With the obscene amounts of snow they shouldbe able to make over the next week, it would easily survive. Yeah somewhere over the last 36 hours their people must have determined they could put down snow and continue to at least maintain it with any warm up. I'm curious to see how many people are on the trails this weekend. Pretty much I'm determined to get into winter mode early this year. Whatever happens I hope it involves some type of precip....this is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 To say that the medium range forecast is complicated would be an understatement. There are some very interesting interactions going on in the eastern Pacific a couple of days before the GFS forecasted snowstorm ... which by the way, originates from the PV filament across BC and Alberta. I can't begin to discuss the full evolution of things here, except to say that all of this connects to multiple significant extratropical cyclogenesis events northeast of Japan in the next 3 days. dtpres_npac_75.gif And before that filament ejects there's a pretty cool fujiwhara interaction off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and the PV filament gets trapped under a pretty impressive anti-cyclonic wave break over Alaska from that big Aleutian low. I'm sure the op GFS has all of that nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS once again shows a colossal of a storm, but closes it off way to early, N VA/ W PA get clobbered....What a wacky storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 And before that filament ejects there's a pretty cool fujiwhara interaction off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and the PV filament gets trapped under a pretty impressive anti-cyclonic wave break over Alaska from that big Aleutian low. I'm sure the op GFS has all of that nailed down. obviously! Seriously, this a crazy evolution in the Pacific. This is a situation where the tropopause maps are gold. Nicely highlights all these features and their interactions (such as fujiwharas and wavebreaks over wavebreaks ... the makings of a super high confidence forecast, obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 already had some last week would be nice to see again though!! Euro has a nice coastal for next week but would be mainly rain .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...TONIGHT...SHARP CLEARING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/CAA/. MUCH COLDER WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 13C THISMORNING TO -1C BY 12Z FRI. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL EXACERBATE THECOLDER AIRMASS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH LAKEEFFECT SNOW MACHINE DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE COULD SEE OUR FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASONLATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA ANDSOUTHWEST NH AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE BEGINS TO CRANK ASSTRONG CAA STREAMS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKES. ITS ALWAYSDIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW FAR EAST THESE SNOW STREAMERS WILLTRAVERSE BUT THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM ALL GENERATE QPF INTO THE CTRVR VLY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSERATES IN A NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN BEST CHANCE OFFLURRIES/SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WESTERNCT/MA AND SOUTHWEST.OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE U40SAND L50S..BUT WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S GIVEN A BRISK WNW WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 lol at the Euro. That would give me Feb 2010 nightmares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 lol at the Euro. That would give me Feb 2010 nightmares. Cutter city? Didn't the GFS move to a warmer solution for next week's event, too? That was my first take glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 lol at the Euro. That would give me Feb 2010 nightmares. Quite the solution. With that ridge rolling over the top Euro temps aloft would suggest a snow to rain to snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Quite the solution. With that ridge rolling over the top Euro temps aloft would suggest a snow to rain to snow scenario. You're speaking for GYX CWA and Dendrite, right? It looked like mostly rain down here in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 No worries, 06z GFS is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 You're speaking for GYX CWA and Dendrite, right? It looked like mostly rain down here in my eyes. Yeah, that was more a direct response to Dendrite. I had a typical MBY moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 No worries, 06z GFS is OTS. Right where we want it at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 You're speaking for GYX CWA and Dendrite, right? It looked like mostly rain down here in my eyes. Dude... Not lookin like rain to me Mike. This thing looks like it could happen, track....well thats anyone's guess, right now just hoping for a storm but pretty hopeful. Is that a PNA spike i see for a short time as well during storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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