November Weather Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

I don't care how cold NW Canada is, you ain't getting it with that GOAK trough. That will need to go.

 

At least the coldest air in the N Hemisphere is on our side of the globe.

[joey2002]

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

lol, I remember the gulf stream fetish.

[forkyfork]

The D10 op Euro looks ugly FYI.

maybe a good rain event down the line?

[Ginx snewx]

maybe a good rain event down the line?

hopefully, fill up the creeks and rivers. The dry is concerning ,not talking about winter but concerning. My local river is the lowest I have seen it in the 12 years I have lived up in CT.

[Ginx snewx]

I don't care how cold NW Canada is, you ain't getting it with that GOAK trough. That will need to go.

you think that is a stagnant feature? I think its on the move. NW territories reload and the rest of Canada is not a complete torch, all good signs. A week of muted warmth seems likely but pretty typical. 

[CT Rain]

hopefully, fill up the creeks and rivers. The dry is concerning ,not talking about winter but concerning. My local river is the lowest I have seen it in the 12 years I have lived up in CT.

 

Rivers are very low for the time of year. Some near record lows for first week in Novie. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles show a couple tenths of QPF over the region for middle of next week which suggests several members have a system. It isn't very defined though at the surface which is to be expected on a 7+ day prog.

 

Regardless, they have a very strong cold signal...impressive for this time of year and being 6 days away.

[TalcottWx]

To me still the same yo/yo pattern we have been in. Obviously a more prolonged and colder yo coming. The major players haven't shifted enough yet unfortunately. I think today was a step in the right direction,

 

A sign of whats to come later in the month? We shall see, only god knows at this timeframe

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Its currently pretty mild out there, 61 and sunny

 

Yup, a bit torchy today.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

you think that is a stagnant feature? I think its on the move. NW territories reload and the rest of Canada is not a complete torch, all good signs. A week of muted warmth seems likely but pretty typical.

I don't think it will be transient. Your best hope is for it to retro west and pop a ridge which is what the ensembles try to do...but this feature may blast Canada and our area with milder weather for several days. I'm not saying torch, but the cold will be shut off for a while. This pattern may work a month from now, but it seems tough if you want wintry weather. At least it may not be an all out furnace although cant rule out a cutter. Maybe it's me, but the 11-15 day looks rather meh until we cool off areas outside of the NW territories. At least colder air isn't all that far away like Will noted.

[toronto blizzard]

you think that is a stagnant feature? I think its on the move. NW territories reload and the rest of Canada is not a complete torch, all good signs. A week of muted warmth seems likely but pretty typical. 

Don't worry Ginxy after Nov 25th I think we'll see some gradual changes which will get to a winter pattern by the 1st week of December

[powderfreak]

I don't think it will be transient. Your best hope is for it to retro west and pop a ridge which is what the ensembles try to do...but this feature may blast Canada and our area with milder weather for several days. I'm not saying torch, but the cold will be shut off for a while. This pattern may work a month from now, but it seems tough if you want wintry weather. At least it may not be an all out furnace although cant rule out a cutter. Maybe it's me, but the 11-15 day looks rather meh until we cool off areas outside of the NW territories. At least colder air isn't all that far away like Will noted.

 

Its not you, but all of us can look at the same 11-15 day prog and interpret it differently depending on what glasses we put on that day.

[jamesnichols1989]

Clipper brings some cold air during the weekend.

[Ginx snewx]

I don't think it will be transient. Your best hope is for it to retro west and pop a ridge which is what the ensembles try to do...but this feature may blast Canada and our area with milder weather for several days. I'm not saying torch, but the cold will be shut off for a while. This pattern may work a month from now, but it seems tough if you want wintry weather. At least it may not be an all out furnace although cant rule out a cutter. Maybe it's me, but the 11-15 day looks rather meh until we cool off areas outside of the NW territories. At least colder air isn't all that far away like Will noted.

I think we are on the same thought train.

[Ginx snewx]

Don't worry Ginxy after Nov 25th I think we'll see some gradual changes which will get to a winter pattern by the 1st week of December

One thing I do not do is worry, its way out of my hands and I don"t worry about the things I can not control. Just like discussing weather good or bad. Right now we need to end this boring stretch, rather pitiful. Probably anecdotal on my part but these boring periods seem to end with a bang, whether that's a mega rainstorm or a raging Nor'easter it needs to happen. UGH

[Ginx snewx]

Its not you, but all of us can look at the same 11-15 day prog and interpret it differently depending on what glasses we put on that day.

Pretty sure everyone sees the same period of warmth, have not seen a post that says different. Sometimes the glasses we put on need to be reading glasses? LOL

[Ginx snewx]

It has been a great day out here. Looks like I topped out at 63 today. After getting a taste of the cold a few days ago though, I am looking forward to the next shot. Do you guys have high confidence that the cold comes in as strongly as modeled next week?

pretty solid Ensemble support

[CoastalWx]

I think we are on the same thought train.

I do like seeing some ridging starting to appear more out west. That may be a hint down the road, but just a WAG.

[powderfreak]

Pretty sure everyone sees the same period of warmth, have not seen a post that says different. Sometimes the glasses we put on need to be reading glasses? LOL

 

Huh?  Wasn't a reference to any warmth or cold... just that we all see things differently or we phrase it differently.  Reading glasses are right

[Ginx snewx]

Huh?  Wasn't a reference to any warmth or cold... just that we all see things differently or we phrase it differently.  Reading glasses are right

[ORH_wxman]

Banter for banter thread guys.

[Typhoon Tip]

Banter for banter thread guys.

 

Heh, thought this was that thread.  Ah well -- you can move my typhoon stuff over there, I don't give a crap.  

[Ginx snewx]

It could even get strong before landfall.. 

most impressive . low latitude storms are the most ferocious beasts there are. 

[Ginx snewx]

Heh, thought this was that thread.  Ah well -- you can move my typhoon stuff over there, I don't give a crap.  

Huh? it is November and that was weather discussion. i think he means the other stuff. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Huh? it is November and that was weather discussion. i think he means the other stuff. 

 

Yeah, upon further thought, not sure what the motivation there was as the events in the West Pac are certainly relevant to the Meteorological world.  

 

But, since this is a sub-forum that features NE, perhaps that's the beef. 

 

Either way ...  But the typhoon stuff was moved so that was it --

[Ginx snewx]

Snow cover ratings for October are in, very impressive.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1#eurasia

[Typhoon Tip]

Snow cover ratings for October are in, very impressive.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1#eurasia

 

 

Impressive!  Ranked 7th out of 46 year's worth of Octs.   Also, interesting that it almost rivaled 1976 ... It's interesting because the latter 1970's were dominated by -AO winters, and the sciences of Cohen and others et al have that October lag correlation with snow pack.   Could be useful ?   

 

I have been buckin' for a -AO   ...Woops, premature postulation ... anyway, I have been buckin' for a -AO winter for some time. For a lot of reasons, but seeing that snow pack gains and sea-ice rate of recovery that we did, was encouraging.   Plus, the multi-decadal trend is trying to pass the AO negative.  

[powderfreak]

Snow cover ratings for October are in, very impressive.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1#eurasia

Nice link. Yeah looks like the northern hemisphere is doing slightly better than last year, though North America is lagging a bit compared to last year (but still above average).

I didn't realize that last December (2012) set the northern hemisphere record for snow cover in that month. Also, the North American record for October is 2002. Interesting.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice link. Yeah looks like the northern hemisphere is doing slightly better than last year, though North America is lagging a bit compared to last year (but still above average).

I didn't realize that last December (2012) set the northern hemisphere record for snow cover in that month. Also, the North American record for October is 2002. Interesting.

 

This may not be the time or place for this ... but it has been studied that a warming polar region would support more snow.   You know .. in a symbolic sort of way, it's like the Earth's way of fighting back against GW.   

[Ginx snewx]

Nice link. Yeah looks like the northern hemisphere is doing slightly better than last year, though North America is lagging a bit compared to last year (but still above average).

I didn't realize that last December (2012) set the northern hemisphere record for snow cover in that month. Also, the North American record for October is 2002. Interesting.

USA though ranked 5th out of 46. Its a good sign no doubt, look at the dead ratter lists with minimum. We ain"t seeing a dead ratter All Snow predicted style.