jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Not out to 174. In the image Tip showed of the GFS hour 372. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Not out to 174. In fact, it wants to make another epo run it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Cold and dry on the euro next week. Model mayhem , we roll the dice in another 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GFS and euro switched personas. About what you'd expect though with such anomalous ridging in the Aleutians. I aslo think this has a little euro bias too. It's getting too split happy at day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I'm only out to hour 144 on the 12z EURO on the free site PSU ewall, but dry air and cold air are present over the eastern US. GFS shows a windex event and I think the EURO does as well around hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 EURO brings all of the cold air down into the TN Valley, therefore shunts any storm south through the TN Valley and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 About what you'd expect though with such anomalous ridging in the Aleutians. I aslo think this has a little euro bias too. It's getting too split happy at day 7. Damn, that is cold on the Euro...that is like a late December airmass at the surface. Funny how it is doing what the GFS was doing earlier. But given the time frames involved, nobody should be surprised...I get the feeling there will be some model clinging induced elation/disappointment over the next few days as there always is when a storm shows up in November at 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Damn, that is cold on the Euro...that is like a late December airmass at the surface. Funny how it is doing what the GFS was doing earlier. But given the time frames involved, nobody should be surprised...I get the feeling there will be some model clinging induced elation/disappointment over the next few days as there always is when a storm shows up in November at 7+ days out. Yeah that's real chilly. 516 thicknesses in mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Also, Canada (western) is showing severe cold reloading at the end of the run. Pretty amplified pattern but mild here d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Also, Canada (western) is showing severe cold reloading at the end of the run. Pretty amplified pattern but mild here d10. Yeah I saw that, hopefully it starts to show some consistency though. All of the models have been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Also, Canada (western) is showing severe cold reloading at the end of the run. Pretty amplified pattern but mild here d10. Yo Yo continues but our Yo is winning the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Its currently pretty mild out there, 61 and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 As far as 5H goes, gaining more support for a phase change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Euro solution is probably the most reasonable. A very solid push of cold for the time of year followed by slow rot and then torch by D10. Given the teleconnections and the last few days of ensembles that is the solution I'd buy. Still a small window for a snow event if the synoptics can sort themselves out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Saskatchewan Screamer is the nickname for a disturbance that comes out of that province of Canada. This is what the 12z GFS shows as the case for our weenie storm solution. Manitoba Mauler was the birth disturbance of our Blizzard of 2005. In November it is quite rare to have as cold of a surface layer as the EURO is showing, so I don't think the actual storm solution could be as far fetched as the 12z GFS suggests, it could be sensing the amount of ridging on the backside of the shortwave trough and therefore slows it down allowing it to amplify more than it normally would, so the EPO troughing allows a downstream ridge and therefore another trough further on downstream. 12z GGEM is on board with a big storm as well. SO right now EURO is by itself. Let's get the arctic front situated first before we begin to dissect why this storm is possible or not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I mean if the models are right about the arctic jet getting involved and an arctic front moves through Southern New ENgland and over the Gulf Stream, the baroclinic zone is in place for rapid intensification of a surface low as it moves through the box of 35N:75W to 35N:60W, to 40N:70W to 40N:60W. This is the zone of most sensitivity to the baroclinic zone, and if an arctic front interferes with SSTs way above normal then the better moisture return and better low level jet can develop as surface pressures drop rapidly over the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I mean if the models are right about the arctic jet getting involved and an arctic front moves through Southern New ENgland and over the Gulf Stream, the baroclinic zone is in place for rapid intensification of a surface low as it moves through the box of 35N:75W to 35N:60W, to 40N:70W to 40N:60W. This is the zone of most sensitivity to the baroclinic zone, and if an arctic front interferes with SSTs way above normal then the better moisture return and better low level jet can develop as surface pressures drop rapidly over the surface low. No offense to James Nichols, but guys , who is the poster last year that would mention the Gulf Stream and blizzard of 2005 in every other post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 No offense to James Nichols, but guys , who is the poster last year that would mention the Gulf Stream and blizzard of 2005 in every other post It was me, lol but what an example to feast our minds on, I know we aren't going to get the actual results of that storm again, but it is the benchmark for all Cape Cod, MA snowstorms in the future to which they will be weighed against. The Gulf Stream has a tremendous impact on the strength of a surface low, especially if the baroclinity is reinforced by the thermal gradient caused by an arctic air mass or arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 You can write these scripts just knowing the players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I like the way cold shots have been rotating out of the NW territories, sliding down the prairies and entering the Eastern US, very encouraging how much cold air is available in the Northern Hemisphere too. When we do warm up its been transitional with colder days outnumbering warm days. Ensemble have a warm period, not beyond expectations, that too however has that transitional look. I know several posters have told me and others to ignore the apparently gaining more and more ENS support AO NAO phase change, but certainly something is driving that bus. Maybe later but as I have said a couple of weeks in a row it appears to be in the cards, certainly before Nov raps up. It is very encouraging how much colder progs verify than the original 11-15 day outlooks indicated. That started the beginning of the second week of October and has continued. Analogs are also on the encouraging side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 You can write these scripts just knowing the players. good pickup on the reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 No offense to James Nichols, but guys , who is the poster last year that would mention the Gulf Stream and blizzard of 2005 in every other post USCAPEWEATHERAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The D10 op Euro looks ugly FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I don't care how cold NW Canada is, you ain't getting it with that GOAK trough. That will need to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The D10 op Euro looks ugly FYI. The good news is that it's day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 USCAPEWEATHERAF I'm the same person, I couldn't remember my password lol so I made a new account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I'm the same person, I couldn't remember my password lol so I made a new account. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Its currently pretty mild out there, 61 and sunny 60F up here as well.... Yo-yo. Clouds and southerly flow tonight and warmer than expected temps today (BTV had to bump those up today), setting the stage for a huge overnight departure, lol. Luckily early this morning was a cold low and tomorrow should get colder prior to midnight so we should be able to avoid another +20 type day showing up on the records. Next week looks cooooold before the mild-up for week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Enjoy this nice day. A taste of the hounds next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 the anomaly pattern after day 7 sort of looks like the pattern before the nor'easter that got away in october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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