powderfreak Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Obviously we're talking like 7-8 days out, but that could threaten some records on the Euro/GFS if we verified something close to that. Euro has highs in the 20s in the interior for at least one of those days. As a reference, ORH has only seen 3 days through 11/15 that have had high temps in the 20s. 11/11/87 (28F), 11/14/86 (29F), and 11/14/97 (28F). I'm late to the discussion this morning... but holy sh*t on some of these runs like the 00z ECM and 6z GFS. The conservative in me can't bite on that yet... I just can't start throwing out wet-bulbs in the teens for most of next week for the snowmakers on the mountain with -10C to -16C air at 850mb. Those guys will bury the place next week if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 lol...snow pretty much into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 lol...snow pretty much into DC. Don't worry, you are next..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It actually has a pretty good windex event accompanying the arctic front. Nice PVA...though the GFS has been the furthest south with this...I'd be a little skeptical of how far south it shows all the features. That would be frigid though next Tuesday. Yeah that's got like 3-6" squall event up here written all over it, particularly the mountains. -10C at H85 traversing across the summits with moisture and lift... that's got awesome upslope snow growth written all over it as temps drop with the front into the favorable -10C to -16C temp range at summit level. GFS signal is there with the little bubble of light QPF over northern VT as that comes through... I'll be watching that one. Ginxy WINDEX special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 that buries the elevated terrain of PA. i think that's roughly the same feature the euro was making a ridiculous storm out of on its 11/04 run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 LOL, this run is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 like nov/dec 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 like nov/dec 89 Good time to break out this from 2007: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/145452-the-bos-checklist-for-november-snow-events-3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 gfs is always so entertaining. you could take half of its crazy all winter and have a top 10 year. basically drops the PV over TorontoBlizzard's head at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 gfs is always so entertaining. you could take half of its crazy all winter and have a top 10 year. basically drops the PV over TorontoBlizzard's head at the end of the run. If only that would happen. This run completely goes against the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Good time to break out this from 2007: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/145452-the-bos-checklist-for-november-snow-events-3/ I made a early season Nov/Dec checklist for BOS and completely forgot about this. This is good because it gives examples. Nice stuiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Good time to break out this from 2007: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/145452-the-bos-checklist-for-november-snow-events-3/ that's got to be close to when i joined the board. good post. of course, look at kevin throwing veiled attacks at the coastal peeps even back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I made a early season Nov/Dec checklist for BOS and completely forgot about this. This is good because it gives examples. Nice stuiff. that's got to be close to when i joined the board. good post. of course, look at kevin throwing veiled attacks at the coastal peeps even back then. Yeah, if we can get a wave out of that shortwave diving in from the plains, then I think the checklist will be well covered for BOS. We have a frigid airmass over the region with great high pressure placement and a likely track near or outside BM...obviously things can change and we may not even have an event to track...but IF something pops up, there's a pretty strong chance many would have frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Is that definitely snow moving into NYC at 174? What are surface temps like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Canadian is interesting too...but this is an eternity on the models. Still, kind of fun to see it for the first time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GEFS are hinting at something as well a bit further east but the signal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GEFS are hinting at something as well a bit further east but the signal is there. Hows high pressure placement /strength look on ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Hows high pressure placement /strength look on ensembles As tyou might expect, solutions are all over the place, but the high placement is in a good spot. I shudder to even talk details because you know how easy this can change. Nothing more than weenie fun right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I think I just heard Steve chortling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Just looked myself. What a total weenie solution lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Ensembles are still pretty much a furnace post-11/15...they aren't buying the OP run's long range solution run out of TorontoBlizzard's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 12z GFS is out of the box solution, the disturbance in question goes negatively tilt around the OH Valley then closes off at H5. This disturbance has been on the models the past few days, but a lot of variations with the final results. I would venture to say that time needs to be taken on this as this is a 174 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Get it inside 100 hrs and lets see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 12z Canadien and 12z GFS both show a sizable H5 setup with the disturbance going neutral to negative tilt somewhere over the Oh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Get it inside 100 hrs and lets see where it goes I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Wow, what a titanic -NAO on the operational GFS extended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Cold and dry on the euro next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Also a trough in GOAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Cold and dry on the euro next week. GFS and euro switched personas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Also a trough in GOAK. Not out to 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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