toronto blizzard Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I am not seeing that. GEFS get it back to near neutral and the Euro ensembles don't look quite as optimistic.Check the CPC site It shows a clear downward trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Check the CPC site It shows a clear downward trend Yes back to near neutral...and its way out in the long range. Back to near neutral AO along with low heights near the EPO region does not make me want to forecast a return to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Yes back to near neutral...and its way out in the long range. Back to near neutral AO along with low heights near the EPO region does not make me want to forecast a return to cold.Yes but it's what happens after the 25th that could see colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Yes but it's what happens after the 25th that could see colder Stop looking at graphs and look at the actual height patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Stop looking at graphs and look at the actual height patterns. So what do the height patterns indicate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 that's a pretty serious cold shot on some of the op runs next week....depending on how quickly moisture returns, could/would yield first widespread frozen for a large chunk of new england i'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 So what do the height patterns indicate? This isn't a furnace exactly, but I wouldn't call this a cold pattern with zonal Pacific flow into Canada. A -NAO will not help with this until you deposit a round of cold into Canada first. If you took this pattern later in the season when Canada is cold in general it might work...but not this early. Euro ensembles are a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 About to enter my 67th winter. Almost every one of those that featured early cold torched for up to 2 weeks before the reload. It's way too early to sustain a cold pattern IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 that's a pretty serious cold shot on some of the op runs next week....depending on how quickly moisture returns, could/would yield first widespread frozen for a large chunk of new england i'd think. If the Euro is right and the core of the cold stays just north I think we have some shot at overrunning snows. If the GFS is right about the core of the cold really diving south I think it's suppression depression until the cold rots slowly overhead and the high oozes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 If the Euro is right and the core of the cold stays just north I think we have some shot at overrunning snows. If the GFS is right about the core of the cold really diving south I think it's suppression depression until the cold rots slowly overhead and the high oozes east. GFS tries to round the bend with a disturbance, but I think it's also too far south with the cold shot. You definitely could envision something wintry perhaps as a low tries to approach and push a WF through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 storm is back on the 00z GGEM. Give me some interesting weather to look forward to or give me death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Obviously we're talking like 7-8 days out, but that could threaten some records on the Euro/GFS if we verified something close to that. Euro has highs in the 20s in the interior for at least one of those days. As a reference, ORH has only seen 3 days through 11/15 that have had high temps in the 20s. 11/11/87 (28F), 11/14/86 (29F), and 11/14/97 (28F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 This isn't a furnace exactly, but I wouldn't call this a cold pattern with zonal Pacific flow into Canada. A -NAO will not help with this until you deposit a round of cold into Canada first. If you took this pattern later in the season when Canada is cold in general it might work...but not this early. Euro ensembles are a bit warmer. f336.gif I'm talking about the 25th and beyond for a meaningful change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I'm talking about the 25th and beyond for a meaningful change Yes, you keep saying that...and its definitely possible. But that is 3 weeks out...ensembles go out to 15 days on the Euro and 16 days on the GFS. They certainly aren't pointing to a change back to cold in the long range...beyond that? Who knows...its too early to really have any idea. The stratosphere isn't showing much and the uncertainty regarding the MJO doesn't help us either . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I'm talking about the 25th and beyond for a meaningful change You are missing the point. You need to reload Canada for anything meaningful and the prog is on 11/20. That subtle troughing might be enough for normal temps, but Canada isn't jsut going to recharge on a dime, it will take time. Perhaps you are right and it turns abruptly colder after the 25th, but you are going to need help. I still think if anything like that happens....it won't be until December. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Anybody have a reason why December 1985 changed so abruptly from November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Anybody have a reason why December 1985 changed so abruptly from November? Nov85.png Dec85.png Nothing really shows up on stratospheric temps or the MJO...Nov '85 had a strong MJO pulse go through phases 3-6..but those aren't overly hostile that early in the season. It looks like we had a big time -EPO in November but we had a lot of troughs digging for oil out west which kept the east warm. We obviously went to a really positive PNA in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Anybody have a reason why December 1985 changed so abruptly from November? Nov85.png Dec85.png AO progression, obscene deep -AO end of November 1985 10 18 2.069 1985 10 19 2.036 1985 10 20 1.581 1985 10 21 1.164 1985 10 22 1.163 1985 10 23 1.034 1985 10 24 0.875 1985 10 25 1.006 1985 10 26 0.733 1985 10 27 0.428 1985 10 28 0.346 1985 10 29 -0.205 1985 10 30 -0.731 1985 10 31 -1.081 1985 11 1 -1.503 1985 11 2 -1.399 1985 11 3 -1.400 1985 11 4 -0.515 1985 11 5 0.996 1985 11 6 1.569 1985 11 7 0.724 1985 11 8 -0.305 1985 11 9 -0.174 1985 11 10 0.693 1985 11 11 1.623 1985 11 12 1.761 1985 11 13 1.523 1985 11 14 1.025 1985 11 15 0.894 1985 11 16 0.720 1985 11 17 0.715 1985 11 18 -0.227 1985 11 19 -1.289 1985 11 20 -2.662 1985 11 21 -3.357 1985 11 22 -3.463 1985 11 23 -3.879 1985 11 24 -4.413 1985 11 25 -4.559 1985 11 26 -4.305 1985 11 27 -3.567 1985 11 28 -3.178 1985 11 29 -3.466 1985 11 30 -3.810 1985 12 1 -3.783 1985 12 2 -3.159 1985 12 3 -2.658 1985 12 4 -2.530 1985 12 5 -2.026 1985 12 6 -1.452 1985 12 7 -1.602 1985 12 8 -2.113 1985 12 9 -2.078 1985 12 10 -1.573 1985 12 11 -1.391 1985 12 12 -1.351 1985 12 13 -1.622 1985 12 14 -2.211 1985 12 15 -2.523 1985 12 16 -2.428 1985 12 17 -2.025 1985 12 18 -1.785 1985 12 19 -1.637 1985 12 20 -1.008 1985 12 21 -0.603 1985 12 22 -0.980 1985 12 23 -1.455 1985 12 24 -1.790 1985 12 25 -2.156 1985 12 26 -2.862 1985 12 27 -2.324 1985 12 28 -1.279 1985 12 29 -1.458 1985 12 30 -1.386 1985 12 31 -0.980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Obviously we're talking like 7-8 days out, but that could threaten some records on the Euro/GFS if we verified something close to that. Euro has highs in the 20s in the interior for at least one of those days. As a reference, ORH has only seen 3 days through 11/15 that have had high temps in the 20s. 11/11/87 (28F), 11/14/86 (29F), and 11/14/97 (28F). yeah the ec has an 18z temp at ORH next thursday of 30F. LOL it actually keeps all of SNE in the 30s on both wed/thur...even NYC is sub 40F on wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Nothing really shows up on stratospheric temps or the MJO...Nov '85 had a strong MJO pulse go through phases 3-6..but those aren't overly hostile that early in the season. It looks like we had a big time -EPO in November but we had a lot of troughs digging for oil out west which kept the east warm. We obviously went to a really positive PNA in December. Yeah nice PNA and NAO flip, but was curious as to what may be the catalyst to flip it other than chalking it up to weather being weather. MJO went into the COD towards the end of the month. Nothing stratosphere or QBO related. Just maybe natural progression I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 yeah the ec has an 18z temp at ORH next thursday of 30F. LOL it actually keeps all of SNE in the 30s on both wed/thur...even NYC is sub 40F on wed. The airmass that is progged to drain in here next week is currently over the frozen Arctic ocean north of AK right now...you can follow its progression on guidance straight down east of AK through the Yukon/NW Territories then SE through Canadian praries, N of the lakes and right down through Ontario/Quebec...its about as an ideal of a trajectory as you can get for cold air in minimizing it's modification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The airmass that is progged to drain in here next week is currently over the frozen Arctic ocean north of AK right now...you can follow its progression on guidance straight down east of AK through the Yukon/NW Territories then SE through Canadian praries, N of the lakes and right down through Ontario/Quebec...its about as an ideal of a trajectory as you can get for cold air in minimizing it's modification. And it fits perfectly with the CDC's timing on a -EPO pulse that takes place over the next 5 days. The index spikes to ~ -2SD and within a day and half we have that plume of cold pressing SSE. Classic! It's like what we were talking about the other day ... one cannot assume a -PNA/+NAO is a bad pattern for cold weather enthusiasts, without first looking at some qualifying details.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Shiver me timbers on the GFS next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Shiver me timbers on the GFS next week. Early November clipper. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Shiver me timbers on the GFS next week. It actually has a pretty good windex event accompanying the arctic front. Nice PVA...though the GFS has been the furthest south with this...I'd be a little skeptical of how far south it shows all the features. That would be frigid though next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It actually has a pretty good windex event accompanying the arctic front. Nice PVA...though the GFS has been the furthest south with this...I'd be a little skeptical of how far south it shows all the features. That would be frigid though next Tuesday. And then it's cooking something up day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 And then it's cooking something up day 7. That high pressure strength and location must be making you delirious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 This run should bring out the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 That high pressure strength and location must be making you delirious. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Congrats Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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