Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Post 11/15 warmth still looks like a good call, but its pretty much a guess at this point if its transient or settles in for longer term (10+ days).Have to say 11-15 from original discussions about that time period is now day 7. Doubt is cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Post 11/15 warmth still looks like a good call, but its pretty much a guess at this point if its transient or settles in for longer term (10+ days). A little cooler in the 11-15 day it seems, but pretty mild after day 10. It looks like the whole ridge-trough combo from the Aleutians to the GOAK respectively begins to retrograde at the end. It tries to pop a bootleg ridge in the west, but Canada is sort of void of colder air at that point. It may take a bit to reload there....not that it's a furnace there, but it would need to be darn cold if people in this area want wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I like the slapping around of torches in the guidance. Opposite to many a garbage winter. I'm right with you. Starting to get the feeling that things may break in favor of cold and snow this winter. If we get a set up as bad as has been discussed here and manage to pull out of it 1 or 2 snow chances in early-mid Nov, over-performing cold shot, underperforming torches... what happens when the teleconnections actually align in our favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Have to say 11-15 from original discussions about that time period is now day 7. Doubt is cast. 11/12-11/15 looks colder than originally progged, but its not like a whole lot has changed on a hemispheric scale on the Euro ensembles...we got a tad more cold push on 11/12 to hold it in a bit longer (at least right now on the models), but the pattern is still hostile beyond that. Could be a case of the ensembles rushing the pattern a bit which isn't uncommon. I'd still feel pretty good about a solid 7-10 day period of above average temps for most of the CONUS...whether we completely torch in our neck of the woods remains to be seen, but I see the cold source shut off for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 A little cooler in the 11-15 day it seems, but pretty mild after day 10. It looks like the whole ridge-trough combo from the Aleutians to the GOAK respectively begins to retrograde at the end. It tries to pop a bootleg ridge in the west, but Canada is sort of void of colder air at that point. It may take a bit to reload there....not that it's a furnace there, but it would need to be darn cold is people in this area want wintry weather. Wanting wintry weather means a below average pattern. We could not have wintry weather but not have a torch either, given that it's only early-mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Sam Lilo wave breaking..lol. It's my favorite haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Wanting wintry weather means a below average pattern. We could not have wintry weather but not have a torch either, given that it's only early-mid November. Its easy to forget that the average high for BOS doesn't go below 50F until 11/23. NYC is 11/26. Even ORH at 1,000 feet doesn't go below an average 50F high until 11/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I am confused how much better it can get in November. A colder rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I am confused how much better it can get in November. A colder rain? Well some of us had a solid warning criteria snowstorm last November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Well some of us had a solid warning criteria snowstorm last November. That is true, but in reality most winters we don't see that as you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 roll over ridge, fold-over ridge, anticyclonic wave break. Basically when the ridge becomes amplified to the point that non linear terms become important, such that the top of the ridge "outruns" the rest, and just like a wave in the ocean, starts leaning over, then breaks. For a low amplitude wave, the nonlinear terms will tend to be very small. But for a more amplified wave, gradients in potential vorticity become large at the wave crest, as does the perturbation wind. Then nonlinear advection deforms the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Its easy to forget that the average high for BOS doesn't go below 50F until 11/23. NYC is 11/26. Even ORH at 1,000 feet doesn't go below an average 50F high until 11/10. Yeah current average high here in Toronto is 48F with an average low of 33.8F. Wintry weather on average is supposed to start by week 3 in November and then continue its trend through April. A few inches in November is a enough satisfaction for me but thereafter December-March it becomes a bigger priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Some might not get it, but if you think from a therml wind argument where warner air will always be to the right and colder air to the left (northern hemisphere) you can see how you'll eventually throw off the balance and eventually cause the ridge to roll over and "break." Becomes inertially unstable too I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Some might not get it, but if you think from a therml wind argument where warner air will always be to the right and colder air to the left (northern hemisphere) you can see how you'll eventually throw off the balance and eventually cause the ridge to roll over and "break." Becomes inertially unstable too I believe.surfs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Wow what a warm look for mid month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Screen Shot 2013-11-05 at 3.27.35 PM.png For a low amplitude wave, the nonlinear terms will tend to be very small. But for a more amplified wave, gradients in potential vorticity become large at the wave crest, as does the perturbation wind. Then nonlinear advection deforms the wave. It would be cool to see these non-reduced ratios updating every second as a Tsunamis approached a coast line. muah hahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Wow what a warm look for mid month! Very high thicknesses over AK and the Aleutians spawning that polar high in Central/Eastern Canada. I like seeing some good surface highs to the north with due north winds, ideal for cold here in the Lower Hudson Valley/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 op GFS quite chilly with the next week cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Gets worse before it gets better. personally, I hate seeing the actual AO coming in noticeably higher than the ensemble prog graphs for all time frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Pretty stout 1040mb high sliding SE thru the Great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Damn that's way below normal for some days next week. End of op run...reload. Snow otg here within 30 days is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Damn that's way below normal for some days next week. End of op run...reload. Snow otg here within 30 days is my call. Monster cold shot for mid-November shown on the 0z GFS...-10C 850s all the way down to DC. Definitely would give NYC a hard freeze, probably even 20s here. Lots of instability squalls possible in the elevated areas west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Looks like a potential shot of some wintery precip day 8 or so on euro w perhaps our last cold shot for a while. Looks like the torch is on as model'd after Nov 15, thou no clue if ensembles had any shifts in that timeframe last nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2013 Author Share Posted November 6, 2013 Damn that's way below normal for some days next week. End of op run...reload. Snow otg here within 30 days is my call. It really does have a nippy look to it. I'm not sure I would classify your 30-day snow comment as a particularly bold call to make on Nov. 6. :) Pretty mild out there this morning 37.2/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It really does have a nippy look to it. I'm not sure I would classify your 30-day snow comment as a particularly bold call to make on Nov. 6. :) Pretty mild out there this morning 37.2/34 It's not terribly bold but snow otg by 12/6 is in the means probaby not the norm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 6, 2013 Author Share Posted November 6, 2013 It's not terribly bold but snow otg by 12/6 is in the means probaby not the norm for the coast. I know--I just found it funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It looks like we enjoy a cool down next week... but then I think it's off to the torches. Both GFS and Euro ensembles retrograde the Aleutian ridge and bring low heights over the EPO region. Hopefully a transient feature but it could wind up being quite mild for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It looks like we enjoy a cool down next week... but then I think it's off to the torches. Both GFS and Euro ensembles retrograde the Aleutian ridge and bring low heights over the EPO region. Hopefully a transient feature but it could wind up being quite mild for a period of time. Agreed. The cold shot next week on both the Euro and GFS is very potent. We'll have a shot at wintry precip potentially too with that. After that, it does look really mild in the means over most of the CONUS. Might be able to put the shawl away for a while after 11/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Agreed. The cold shot next week on both the Euro and GFS is very potent. We'll have a shot at wintry precip potentially too with that. After that, it does look really mild in the means over most of the CONUS. Might be able to put the shawl away for a while after 11/15. Looks like however the AO is expected to tank after mid-month which could return the cold pattern around the 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Looks like however the AO is expected to tank after mid-month which could return the cold pattern around the 25th? I am not seeing that. GEFS get it back to near neutral and the Euro ensembles don't look quite as optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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