CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 NCEP having issues witht he 12z GEFS. We'll have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 My mind is wondering how this pattern would materialize a month from now. Something tells me it would be an interesting 10 days or so if this were mid December. You'd have a huge cold dump from Canada heading south through what would be snow covered ground. I think it would be pretty interesting here. Heck even the D9 GFS tries to give us a SWFE opportunity with that monster high to our north in Quebec...clown range noted. A month from now would probably have the whole gradient shifted south and the airmass would be pretty damned cold (the one coming in next week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I think the main point of the EPO discussion was to show how you can still get cold in our region despite other ugly teleconnector indices being unfavorable...such as a +AO/+NAO and -PNA....that composite I showed has that combination of all 3 (+AO/+NAO/-PNA) which normally would lead many to believe that we will torch our way through a month....but obviously not the case if you have enough poleward ridging from the Aleutians. Sometimes its important to reiterate points....especially when we see graphs of the AO, NAO, PNA, etc posted all the time. Just an alternative way of thinking rather than blindly following the index numbers...if that makes sense. It's all good, I know... I would actually take the AO/NAO and PNA further, though. Because one thing that part of the disco is not considering is that these indices have spatial correlations that exist in quadrature... Fancy words for ...west based this, north based that, SE based whatever, that qualify and quantify the patterns in nuanced ways. We all know that a W based NAO is hugely more directive for us here in the NE U.S., than an E based one... In fact, we have seen E-B NAO so extreme that although the domain on whole is negative, we are in a kiln. And vice versa... The same argument can really be extended to the AO, where a negative off-loads cold in Eurasia and we wind up warmish. Or, a +AO with a -EPO, ...rare, sure, but that would completely f up the temperature correlation for +AOs -- this is one of those times, actually. Point is, we can't assume +AO/+NAO/-PNA is bad just the same. Less likely to good, tru dhat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 It's all good, I know... I would actually take the AO/NAO and PNA further, though. Because one thing that part of the disco is not considering is that these indices have spatial correlations that exist in quadrature... Fancy words for ...west based this, north based that, SE based whatever, that qualify and quantify the patterns in nuanced ways. We all know that a W based NAO is hugely more directive for us here in the NE U.S., than an E based one... In fact, we have seen E-B NAO so extreme that although the domain on whole is negative, we are in a kiln. And vice versa... The same argument can really be extended to the AO, where a negative off-loads cold in Eurasia and we wind up warmish. Or, a +AO with a -EPO, ...rare, sure, but that would completely f up the temperature correlation for +AOs -- this is one of those times, actually. Point is, we can't assume +AO/+NAO/-PNA is bad just the same. Less likely to good, tru dhat! Just need the right orientation in which all eyes turn to the Pacific. We'll see. Something like the GFS op would be ok if you look at H5. Other than a brief lobe pinwheeling south in the GOAK, it keeps the lower heights closer to the Canadian Rockies and high plains. I know it's the GFS op, but it's an example of what can go right with that -PNA if we had that in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 12z GFS clown maps show several inches of snow for interior upstate NY, northern VT/NH and western Maine days 8-10. Can we not do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Canadian not biting on the GFS cold for next week...which is funny because the 00z GGEM run was going AWOL with it...probably threatening records. One extreme to the other. It does look like it would eventually push the boundary south of us post-180...but that really doesn't mean anything at this time range. At any rate, at least its a semi-interesting pattern with that cold push...I still think we'll warm up for a while post-11/15, but perhaps we can avoid an all out furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Yeah, that D9 GFS ... that would probably result in one helluva ice storm Wasn't there discussion (Maybe Steve) back in early October that with the way the pattern was shaping up, it would promote the possibility of such event in November? Might be wrong and my novice take on these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Also this next cold shot after Thursday has trended sneaky too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Pretty big changes on the GEFS as they role out. That Aleutian ridge seems to be causing the big trough off the west coast to retro and pop up heights a bit over the west after day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Sam Lilo wave breaking..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Pretty big changes on the GEFS as they role out. That Aleutian ridge seems to be causing the big trough off the west coast to retro and pop up heights a bit over the west after day 7. perhaps poor mjo forecasts causing some havoc in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 perhaps poor mjo forecasts causing some havoc in the models. It started right from the beginning. I've never seen such big changes on an ensemble at hr 48. It shifted the closed low near Hawaii way SW which I think started the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 It actually splits the energy from that low so the result is lower heights west of NAMR and the southern half of the closed low shoved way SW. Amazing what a small difference like that can do. Almost looks like the euro and gfs op in a way. So you have a huge Aleutian ridge, -PNA, monster +AO and trough in the east after day 10. Something tells me these runs may change daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Just want to announce that my winter forecast is up at the below link, and ask where I should be posting it? http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/11/new-2013-2014-winter-outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Well the Euro is kind of interesting out in lala land...SWFE potential. Verbatim mostly rain for anyone south of NNE, but a setup worth watching...esp with that really cold high to the north. Easily could get squashed underneath that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 fast-forward 30 days on the calendar and mid-to-late next week would be a pretty classic SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I like the slapping around of torches in the guidance. Opposite to many a garbage winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Ugh these model runs make a forecaster queezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Wasn't there discussion (Maybe Steve) back in early October that with the way the pattern was shaping up, it would promote the possibility of such event in November? Might be wrong and my novice take on these Yup, it was covered... Gradient pattern are inherently setting up for that risk, because you get overrunning probability in the means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Well the Euro is kind of interesting out in lala land...SWFE potential. Verbatim mostly rain for anyone south of NNE, but a setup worth watching...esp with that really cold high to the north. Easily could get squashed underneath that. Yes, LP placement is all over the place right now but to be expected this far out, Definitely has potential, Especially up this way, Cold as most know always seems to be under modeled and this may trend more favorable in time for some other folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Mountain Ops staff around New England endorse the 12z GFS...nice stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I realize it's lala land but d10 euro seems to want to form a rollover ridge enhancing a potential epo beyond the d10 range. Changes afoot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 What's a roll over ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Euro ensembles certainly aren't like the GEFS. Still a meh pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Gets worse before it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 What's a roll over ridge? Ridge rolls over the top of a cutoff frequently I'm the epo area but beware of the euro bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Euro ensembles certainly aren't like the GEFS. Still a meh pattern. Post 11/15 warmth still looks like a good call, but its pretty much a guess at this point if its transient or settles in for longer term (10+ days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Post 11/15 warmth still looks like a good call, but its pretty much a guess at this point if its transient or settles in for longer term (10+ days). My guess is transient. No major +NAO torch forecasted, just a neutral blah. And PNA looks to start to move back up in the 10-15 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I like the slapping around of torches in the guidance. Opposite to many a garbage winter.today was a b**ch slap. Model mayhem during transition season seems to be a quarterly occurrence. Going to be interesting what shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 What's a roll over ridge? roll over ridge, fold-over ridge, anticyclonic wave break. Basically when the ridge becomes amplified to the point that non linear terms become important, such that the top of the ridge "outruns" the rest, and just like a wave in the ocean, starts leaning over, then breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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