CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 What in the hell gets into that thing sometimes day 8-10 LOL?? It's stupid bias of digging for oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 NW Canada stays very cold, but I'd rather see the source region closer to home stay cold. Honestly, I wouldn't worry about that yet. It's not a furnace..just warms up somewhat. My guess is that we may see something shift around near December, but I still hedge towards a + looking AO/NAO. So if anything shifts, it may be the Pacific. A little concerned the first half of December is dicey, but that is beyond my expertise. Yeah I agree. Its uncertain and very complicated. But as you know the skill of models past day 5 is less than 30% in terms of accuracy. Again we"ll have to see how the SE ridge interacts and how far the ridge pushes northward. My belief is that the NE and Great lakes wont be overly warm, a few degrees above normal with coldshots of 1-2 days every 3-4 days. I guess keeping northern canada cold is one good asset for long term cold shots. The AAM going negative doesnt bode as well as a positive AAM for a STJ so lets see. I think by late December through January the AO will be mostly positive as it fits perfectly as to what the October snow cover anomaly portrays with perhaps a SSW later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 A quick recap of the two days of below normal across New England and eastern New York... ID SUN-03 MON-04 AVERAGE --- ------ ------ ------- MPV -13 -15 -14 MVL -11 -13 -12 1V4 -11 -12 -12 BTV -11 -12 -12 DDH -10 -13 -12 CON - 9 -13 -11 ALB - 8 -13 -11 GFL - 9 -12 -11 PBG - 8 -11 -10 PSF - 8 -11 -10 BDL - 6 -12 - 9 VSF - 8 -10 - 9 BGR - 7 -10 - 9 LGA - 5 -12 - 9 ORH - 6 -11 - 9 POU - 6 -11 - 9 GYX - 6 -10 - 8 NYC - 6 -10 - 8 BDR - 5 -10 - 8 BOS - 4 -11 - 8 HUL - 6 - 9 - 8 PVD - 4 -11 - 8 PWM - 4 -11 - 8 FVE - 6 - 7 - 7 CAR - 6 - 6 - 6 ISP - 4 - 8 - 6 MLT - 5 - 7 - 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Not that it means anything but 1970 has dominated the 6-14 day analog charts pretty consistently lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 A quick recap of the two days of below normal across New England and eastern New York... ID SUN-03 MON-04 AVERAGE --- ------ ------ ------- MPV -13 -15 -14 MVL -11 -13 -12 1V4 -11 -12 -12 BTV -11 -12 -12 DDH -10 -13 -12 CON - 9 -13 -11 ALB - 8 -13 -11 GFL - 9 -12 -11 PBG - 8 -11 -10 PSF - 8 -11 -10 BDL - 6 -12 - 9 VSF - 8 -10 - 9 BGR - 7 -10 - 9 LGA - 5 -12 - 9 ORH - 6 -11 - 9 POU - 6 -11 - 9 GYX - 6 -10 - 8 NYC - 6 -10 - 8 BDR - 5 -10 - 8 BOS - 4 -11 - 8 HUL - 6 - 9 - 8 PVD - 4 -11 - 8 PWM - 4 -11 - 8 FVE - 6 - 7 - 7 CAR - 6 - 6 - 6 ISP - 4 - 8 - 6 MLT - 5 - 7 - 6 You are the man. Lol the irony of PFs area jackpotting with cold after all his postal meltdowns about a lack of such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I'd also watch for a decent cold shot near or after the 13th. Footsteps a little louder on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Not that it means anything but 1970 has dominated the 8-14 day analog charts pretty consistently lately. At this point i would not be in shock if mid november throws everyone for a loop esp Bos NE or if we are +6 . I want that monster Aleutian ridge more poleward and i want to see the real cold dump into northern Maine and ooze south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Torch calls for the first two weeks of Nov bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Not that it means anything but 1970 has dominated the 6-14 day analog charts pretty consistently lately. Its reasonable but remember it was a moderate Nina, far different than this years La Nada or neutral anomaly. 1970-71 was a very cold winter overall. Though the AO/NAO remained mostly negative that winter, lets see. I think 08-09, 66-67 and 62-63 are better Analogs. The 80's, 90's and 2000's up until 06 wouldnt bode really well as they featured a predominat warm PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Its reasonable but remember it was a moderate Nina, far different than this years La Nada or neutral anomaly. 1970-71 was a very cold winter overall. Though the AO/NAO remained mostly negative that winter, lets see. I think 08-09, 66-67 and 62-63 are better Analogs. The 80's, 90's and 2000's up until 06 wouldnt bode really well as they featured a predominat warm PDO. just posted what the CPC analogs were for the next 6-14, they backed way off on the extent of AN across the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 LOL @ day10 euro. lol... highlight of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Daily CFS now with a cold December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 So we toss the CPC index AO NAO charts which show a phase change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Daily CFS now with a cold December. And tomorrow it will show the Arctic tundra in the East followed by Cuba the day after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The H5 charts really don't show anything more than an easement to the AO/NAO. I don't see much of a change yet and if we did, it likely would not mean anything given that Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 just posted what the CPC analogs were for the next 6-14, they backed way off on the extent of AN across the NE. Meh, I think we will see atleast a few days of fairly above normal temps but not long-lasting. Its been a long time since we have seen a wintry November and December as the past few have started around January. -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The H5 charts really don't show anything more than an easement to the AO/NAO. I don't see much of a change yet and if we did, it likely would not mean anything given that Pacific. But the PNA looks to head towards neutral at least by the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The H5 charts really don't show anything more than an easement to the AO/NAO. I don't see much of a change yet and if we did, it likely would not mean anything given that Pacific.I really get sick of routing for -AO / -NAO to be honest, i mean half the time we get a -AO. And its on "wrong side" of the globe , and half the time we get a -NAO its east based, seems like threading the damn needle sometimes. Torch the M.A up thru Philly if ya must but gimme a nice cold dump over the northern tier oozing into BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I'd also watch for a decent cold shot near or after the 13th. Footsteps a little louder on that one. It has the looks of another "sneaky" cold (in terms of the amplitude) shot drifitng across New England with that high and Canada still being very cold...then as you said it warms up pretty nicely across the board in eastern NA as the pacific air moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 But the PNA looks to head towards neutral at least by the end of the month PNA is the least of my worry...esp in December. We've had epic Decembers left and right since 2007 with a negative PNA. Its the EPO that worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 PNA is the least of my worry...esp in December. We've had epic Decembers left and right since 2007 with a negative PNA. Its the EPO that worries me. I think with the ridging still expected to be there when the GOAK trough kicks in is a good sign because it wouldn't take much to move that ridge into the EPO region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I think with the ridging still expected to be there when the GOAK trough kicks in is a good sign because it wouldn't take much to move that ridge into the EPO region Maybe...I don't see any definitive signs yet of whether December will be warm or cold across our area. I'm slightly leaning warm, but that could definitely change...if Aleutian ridge is poleward with a -PNA...then we'd likely get a gradient pattern that keeps Canada cold and potentially the northern tier of the central/eastern U.S. depending on other nuances. However, if the Aleutian ridge is more flat and we don't compensate elsewhere, then we would blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Not that it means anything but 1970 has dominated the 6-14 day analog charts pretty consistently lately. The funny thing about that is I was telling Scott that the weeklies looked eerily similar to late November 1970 in week 4...that;s out in clown range, but that would obviously be a progression we wouldn't mind. However, we have to be careful because other years progressed similarly to 1970 up until December...but didn't give the epic December pattern. 1990 was such a year...it shat the bed badly in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I really get sick of routing for -AO / -NAO to be honest, i mean half the time we get a -AO. And its on "wrong side" of the globe , and half the time we get a -NAO its east based, seems like threading the damn needle sometimes. Torch the M.A up thru Philly if ya must but gimme a nice cold dump over the northern tier oozing into BOS Lol pickles, that AO NAO Combo is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The funny thing about that is I was telling Scott that the weeklies looked eerily similar to late November 1970 in week 4...that;s out in clown range, but that would obviously be a progression we wouldn't mind. However, we have to be careful because other years progressed similarly to 1970 up until December...but didn't give the epic December pattern. 1990 was such a year...it shat the bed badly in December.Yeah that's why I posted, not that it means anything. I am intrigued how things have progressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 IMHO, I don't see an impressive December. The Multi-Monthly Dry Pattern will continue to stay in motion, unless if there's a significant -EPO/+PNA in the works around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 But the PNA looks to head towards neutral at least by the end of the month Double what Will said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 IMHO, I don't see an impressive December. The Multi-Monthly Dry Pattern will continue to stay in motion, unless if there's a significant -EPO/+PNA in the works around Thanksgiving. Eh, we are going to have increased chances of storminess heading through the month. I'm not overly worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The funny thing about that is I was telling Scott that the weeklies looked eerily similar to late November 1970 in week 4...that;s out in clown range, but that would obviously be a progression we wouldn't mind. However, we have to be careful because other years progressed similarly to 1970 up until December...but didn't give the epic December pattern. 1990 was such a year...it shat the bed badly in December. Almost LOL similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Almost LOL similar. Yeah I can't say I totally hate the progression right now. We obviously feel a little uneasy with the precarious AO situation and always the potential that it could decide to plant a vortex over the EPO region...but that Aleutian ridge for now seems to want to hold its ground enough to not allow for the big blowtorch pattern into Canada...southern Canada may torch for a time post-11/15, but the source region looks good right now north of that. I also agree about a sneaky cold shot that could be fairly potent around 11/12-13. Good trajectory on the Scooter Canadian praries high oozing eastward and draining cold from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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