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November Weather Discussion


moneypitmike

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Give us a ++ SD EPO and were talking 75+. Let's hope the AO is transient. PNA can be dealt with if AO/NAO//EPO cooperate. Which is rare..lol.

 

The euro has close to a 597 decameter ridge near the Aleutians. Granted it's the op, but that would mean 90s here in the summer...lol. That's likely the reason why we won't have a complete inferno near mid month...but it will be at least mild. I have no clue what will happen in December. My guess is a +AO/NAO to start.

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Euro ensembles have a -4SD -PNA and a +3SD AO. That spells warm weather near mid month.

What do you make of that record blocking ridge over Aleutians that is most anomalous thing i have seen. if that presses a bit more poleward can't we squeeze out some cooler anomalies. I thought it look'd possible for Bos.

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What do you make of that record blocking ridge over Aleutians that is most anomalous thing i have seen. if that presses a bit more poleward can't we squeeze out some cooler anomalies. I thought it look'd possible for Bos.

 

The most anomalous ridging is south of say 60N. It begins to get flat topped near AK, otherwise I would agree it would be a reason to go cooler. I actually think it's this ridging that is trying to allow for some cold air to come very close to us next week. That seems to have trended cooler recently. My guess is that if we had this in December...the expanse of the cold air would probably encompass our region.

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The most anomalous ridging is south of say 60N. It begins to get flat topped near AK, otherwise I would agree it would be a reason to go cooler. I actually think it's this ridging that is trying to allow for some cold air to come very close to us next week. That seems to have trended cooler recently. My guess is that if we had this in December...the expanse of the cold air would probably encompass our region.

At least there is potential for things to get interesting and i would expect pretty significant run to run changes on models with the anomalous features. I hope the flat top look of the ridge can migrate a tad poleward, i think our region esp Bos North (or so) is still up for grabs either way. I was reading HM make a point around halloween (that i just bump'd) that mentioned warmer sst migrating closer to the equator could argue for more poleward extent of aleutian ridging , however i havent followed close enough to see if that has already play'd out on modeling (last couple runs) or what if any relevance this may still have going fwd.

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At least there is potential for things to get interesting and i would expect pretty significant run to run changes on models with the anomalous features. I hope the flat top look of the ridge can migrate a tad poleward, i think our region esp Bos North (or so) is still up for grabs either way. I was reading HM make a point around halloween (that i just bump'd) that mentioned warmer sst migrating closer to the equator could argue for more poleward extent of aleutian ridging , however i havent followed close enough to see if that has already play'd out on modeling (last couple runs) or what if any relevance this may still have going fwd.

 

I don't think this is a SST issue, but I could be wrong. It looks like the product of some strong troughing near Japan and Indonesian convection. But speaking of SSTs, there is a wave of deep warmer water (Kelvin wave) moving east.

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The euro has close to a 597 decameter ridge near the Aleutians. Granted it's the op, but that would mean 90s here in the summer...lol. That's likely the reason why we won't have a complete inferno near mid month...but it will be at least mild. I have no clue what will happen in December. My guess is a +AO/NAO to start.

Its a strong ridge and at least it aint a huge trough with the PV situated over Alaska like 2011.

I think after about Nov 25 the +AO/NAO will break down somewhat and trend more neutral giving away to perhaps a wintry period for 2 weeks in December. The overall tendency of the AO seems to be positive and by the looks of it I don't think it will go lower than -1 sigma at best in December.

MJO seems to favor a warmer period developing soon, as it heads to unfavorable phases. The next kelvin wave may help warm the ENSO regions, but no where near El Nino state.

How does Canada look like over the next 2 weeks on the ensembles?

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Its a strong ridge and at least it aint a huge trough with the PV situated over Alaska like 2011.

I think after about Nov 25 the +AO/NAO will break down somewhat and trend more neutral giving away to perhaps a wintry period for 2 weeks in December. The overall tendency of the AO seems to be positive and by the looks of it I don't think it will go lower than -1 sigma at best in December.

MJO seems to favor a warmer period developing soon, as it heads to unfavorable phases. The next kelvin wave may help warm the ENSO regions, but no where near El Nino state.

How does Canada look like over the next 2 weeks on the ensembles?

 

It's cold in the 6-10 day, but then warms up in the 11-15 day as the trough in the GOAK sharpens and drives Pacific air eastward.

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It's cold in the 6-10 day, but then warms up in the 11-15 day as the trough in the GOAK sharpens and drives Pacific air eastward.

Looks reasonable when you analyze the MJO and the GWO/AAM. Im assuming northern canada stays chilly? If so, that would bode well for us as it gets bottled up north and ever so edges slowly south in cold pockets. Should build a nice snow cover depth too.

PNA trends fairly negative in the 8-15 day period whereas the AO remains positive. Quite different than Nov 08 atleast in my area which seems to be the closest analog to this year.

Whats your thoughts near the end-beginning of December?

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Looks reasonable when you analyze the MJO and the GWO/AAM. Im assuming northern canada stays chilly? If so, that would bode well for us as it gets bottled up north and ever so edges slowly south in cold pockets. Should build a nice snow cover depth too.

PNA trends fairly negative in the 8-15 day period whereas the AO remains positive. Quite different than Nov 08 atleast in my area which seems to be the closest analog to this year.

Whats your thoughts near the end-beginning of December?

 

NW Canada stays very cold, but I'd rather see the source region closer to home stay cold. Honestly, I wouldn't worry about that yet. It's not a furnace..just warms up somewhat.

 

My guess is that we may see something shift around near December, but I still hedge towards a + looking AO/NAO. So if anything shifts, it may be the Pacific. A little concerned the first half of December is dicey, but that is beyond my expertise.

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