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November Weather Discussion

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Wrong. 

 

We're making an observation and expressing a concern as to whether it might impact the extent of our cooling tonight.  You go on to say it's "mares' tails" based on an image you're looking at.  Be real.  That's equivalent to telling someone it can't be snowing because it's not showing up on radar. 

 

Suffice it to say, you are not aware of what's occurring in our respective areas.  We're not "arguing the meteorology of the thing".  Will the clouds be short-lived?  Perhaps, and hopefully so.

 

31.2/14, broken clouds.

 

 

With all due respect ,  that is not an apt analogy, re the radar thing.  

 

It's star lit to Pittsfield, still and will remain so, regardless of whether an errant streak or two of clouds happens by, probably until after 5 or 6 z.  Satellite was not belying the truth in this case. 

 

The original assertion that it will bomb down in temp was clad and verifying.   Pretty interesting, too, we went from 42 to 30 in the first 2 hours since sun set here in Ayer.  

 

I almost wonder if some shallow ponds might get some edge ice, seeing as it was less than 32 last night and not a lot of recovery today.  

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

29 at my place, and it was 32 by 6 just about everywhere, just as I said and they chose to argue.

"Concern" gimme a break.

Don't tell me to 'get real', when the observations I posted were not my opinion but based on Meteorological fact.

You gotta relax dude. People were just posting obs. There doesn't always have to be someone wrong or proving points
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

You gotta relax dude. People were just posting obs. There doesn't always have to be someone wrong or proving points

 

 

To be blunt, I don't think they were telling the truth about their "obs" because they were not consistent with satellite and ASOS -- granted ASOS is not always spot on, but where the sat indicated greater than 75% clear, the ASOS were indicating CLR.   So where was this altostratus overcast? 

 

The only logical conclusion they just want to argue the point, and it's petty.  The tone of the original poster was dismissive.   Yes, there does (also) need to be proving wrong, because that is what science is about.  

 

Proving hypothesis right from wrong, using, empirical evidence.  But ... I guess otherwise we would have to admit that this forum has decayed from Meteorology into some other form of mere social media.    

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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With all due respect , that is not an apt analogy, re the radar thing.

It's star lit to Pittsfield, still and will remain so, regardless of whether an errant streak or two of clouds happens by, probably until after 5 or 6 z. Satellite was not belying the truth in this case.

The original assertion that it will bomb down in temp was clad and verifying. Pretty interesting, too, we went from 42 to 30 in the first 2 hours since sun set here in Ayer.

I almost wonder if some shallow ponds might get some edge ice, seeing as it was less than 32 last night and not a lot of recovery today.

27/18 here. I posted earlier I saw skim ice off of Rte 140 by Wachusett in Westminster this afternoon
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

27/18 here. I posted earlier I saw skim ice off of Rte 140 by Wachusett in Westminster this afternoon

 

Nice!   I almost wonder if despite the warm appeal to the teleconnectors and even the oper. tempos if this ends up one of those deals where things just find ways to break colder. I mean, the last warm up seemed to be briefer compared to the modeling from last week, and now this cool back performs really well.  The warm up through Thursday is also now tamed compared to the suggestion from last week.  Interesting. 

 

BED also plummeting:  042356 CLR 10 27 15 0000.    OWD now 26 and it's only 7pm

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
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To be blunt, I don't think they were telling the truth about their "obs" because they were not consistent with satellite and ASOS -- granted ASOS is not always spot on, but where the sat indicated greater than 75% clear, the ASOS were indicating CLR. So where was this altostratus overcast?

The only logical conclusion they just want to argue the point, and it's petty. The tone of the original poster was dismissive. Yes, there does (also) need to be proving wrong, because that is what science is about.

Proving hypothesis right from wrong, using, empirical evidence. But ... I guess otherwise we would have to admit that this forum has decayed from Meteorology into some other form of mere social media.

Who in their right mind would lie about a deck of altostratus? There is no point.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

To be blunt, I don't think they were telling the truth about their "obs" because they were not consistent with satellite and ASOS.

The only logical conclusion they just want to argue the point, and it's petty. The tone of the original poster was dismissive. Yes, there does (also) need to be proving wrong, because that is what science is about.

Two people saw some clouds and stated as much. I highly doubt they weren't "telling the truth" just to argue. I wouldn't read too much into it.

BDL hasn't reported "CLR" skies since 10am this morning, FWIW.

New Haven is mostly cloudy, and Bridgeport and Danbury are partly cloudy. These are similar locations to the original poster.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Two people saw some clouds and stated as much. I highly doubt they weren't "telling the truth" just to argue. I wouldn't read too much into it.

BDL hasn't reported "CLR" skies since 10am this morning, FWIW.

New Haven is mostly cloudy, and Bridgeport and Danbury are partly cloudy. These are similar locations to the original poster.

Weather is serious business. I just wish everyone could respectfully disagree when they don't see eye to eye on something. Snowman21 has always been a great and knowledgeable poster.

 

Anyways...IR over the last hour has shown some high level clouds over western CT and S VT/SW NH with the more prominent BKN/OVC out toward BGM. Only the sites with 25K ceilometers will be picking up on these Cs/As layers since they're all above 12kft in NY.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

15-25 for lows is impressive in Early Dec and even more impressive in early Nov with no snow cover. New Bedford MA. already tied their record low of 28

CON broke their old record of 17F with a 16F this AM. We had a pretty cold airmass about this time last year too.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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29 at my place, and it was 32 by 6 just about everywhere, just as I said and they chose to argue.

 

"Concern"  gimme a break.

 

Don't tell me to 'get real', when the observations I posted were not my opinion but based on Meteorological fact.  

 

 

With all due respect ,  that is not an apt analogy, re the radar thing.  

 

It's star lit to Pittsfield, still and will remain so, regardless of whether an errant streak or two of clouds happens by, probably until after 5 or 6 z.  Satellite was not belying the truth in this case. 

 

The original assertion that it will bomb down in temp was clad and verifying.   Pretty interesting, too, we went from 42 to 30 in the first 2 hours since sun set here in Ayer.  

 

I almost wonder if some shallow ponds might get some edge ice, seeing as it was less than 32 last night and not a lot of recovery today.  

 

It's cooled for some, not all.  Lots of sites have only dropped to around 30.  I had a high of 36, and my  temp "bombed" from 35* at 4:00p.m. to 32* at 5:00.  I've continued to bomb an additional 2* in the subsequent 3 hours.

 

To be blunt, I don't think they were telling the truth about their "obs" because they were not consistent with satellite and ASOS -- granted ASOS is not always spot on, but where the sat indicated greater than 75% clear, the ASOS were indicating CLR.   So where was this altostratus overcast? 

 

The only logical conclusion they just want to argue the point, and it's petty.  The tone of the original poster was dismissive.   Yes, there does (also) need to be proving wrong, because that is what science is about.  

 

Proving hypothesis right from wrong, using, empirical evidence.  But ... I guess otherwise we would have to admit that this forum has decayed from Meteorology into some other form of mere social media.    

 

I love being called a liar.

 

27/18 here. I posted earlier I saw skim ice off of Rte 140 by Wachusett in Westminster this afternoon

 

I think you're lying, Dave.  :)

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well kind of like we talked about the other day, the euro ensemble toned down the mega torch it had, although still rather ugly. The GEFS have such a deep AK trough that it tries to pump a bit of Rocky mtn ridging, but that's still a mild look with Pacific meh air moving east. It's tough to tell what would happen down the road. Sort of like a +WP pattern with mega troughing in the GOAK. It looks like the trough will be reluctant to go, but the ridge wanted to push east. It's probably going to push east, weaken, and then rebuild west again is my guess. Other than some fluky timing of low pressure and cold air, might be tough to get wintry precip to SNE...might be a better shot up north starting this weekend.nIf I had to guess, December probably starts out hostile too, but hopefully changes during the month. 

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
Posted

Well kind of like we talked about the other day, the euro ensemble toned down the mega torch it had, although still rather ugly. The GEFS have such a deep AK trough that it tries to pump a bit of Rocky mtn ridging, but that's still a mild look with Pacific meh air moving east. It's tough to tell what would happen down the road. Sort of like a +WP pattern with mega troughing in the GOAK. It looks like the trough will be reluctant to go, but the ridge wanted to push east. It's probably going to push east, weaken, and then rebuild west again is my guess. Other than some fluky timing of low pressure and cold air, might be tough to get wintry precip to SNE...might be a better shot up north starting this weekend.nIf I had to guess, December probably starts out hostile too, but hopefully changes during the month. 

Weeklies?

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