November Weather Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

That's still pretty la-la range, especially when it's sort of the first run to show something too.

Anything past 120hrs is la-la, IMO. Let's see once it gets into that 72-120 hour range.

that would be tomorrow

[Tropopause_Fold]

the reference to "Cape Cod, MA" was a dead giveaway. every storm has blizz of 2005 potential

yeah once i saw that...i remembered his name from twitter. he seems like a nice guy....maybe just a little overzealous on the snow and tornado threats though.  

[snowman21]

DPs are around 10F and the high pressure center is settling overhead.  Thought last night had a shot and being a stinger, but enough wind stayed up all night to prevent most sites from really bottoming out.  Orange, MA did get to 19 after going calm for several hours, but that was the exception rather than the rule.  

 

Tonight, however, the wind should really go nil most places, and we have low starting pad, with temps struggling to make the low 40s for highs, and clear skies.  Probably be 32F at 6pm, and heading for the high teens easily.

The clouds moving in from the west should prevent temps from bottoming out. Solid deck of mid-level clouds moving in here already.

[Typhoon Tip]

The clouds moving in from the west should prevent temps from bottoming out. Solid deck of mid-level clouds moving in here already.

 

 

That cloud deck is not moving in "already" ...it's eroding and that makes sense, because it is moving into a region of large scale subsidence.  Plus, how do you know that is mid level cloud?  there may be some of that, but the high res late imagery, that appears to be a lot of mare's tails all the way out to Utica.  

 

It's now in the upper 30s already across much of the area, which shows how primed the region is to plummet.  The sun is just setting and 5F lops off almost immediately.  

[moneypitmike]

The clouds moving in from the west should prevent temps from bottoming out. Solid deck of mid-level clouds moving in here already.

 

I'm concerned about that, too.  Hopefully we can get a jump start on the cooling to compensate for that insulating layer.

 

34.3/12

[moneypitmike]

That cloud deck is not moving in "already" ...it's eroding and that makes sense, because it is moving into a region of large scale subsidence.  Plus, how do you know that is mid level cloud?  there may be some of that, but the high res late imagery, that appears to be a lot of mare's tails all the way out to Utica.  

 

It's now in the upper 30s already across much of the area, which shows how primed the region is to plummet.  The sun is just setting and 5F lops off almost immediately.  

 

I'm looking to the west from my office, John.  It looks like more than "mares' tails".  Do they erode?  Perhaps--and hopefully.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm looking to the west from my office, John.  It looks like more than "mares' tails".  Do they erode?  Perhaps--and hopefully.

 

 

Ha, "hopefully"   ...okay.   

 

But I just looked and it's mare's tails from my vantage point.  

 

Machine guidance has clear at BED through 6 Z, then scattered, then OVC nearing 5 am, but the damage may be down if that is the case.  The cooling potential is very high, so getting even 4 hours of transfer underway, given to the antecedent airmass ... it should get down to the low 20 at a lot of sites.   Maybe even colder.  

[snowman21]

That cloud deck is not moving in "already" ...it's eroding and that makes sense, because it is moving into a region of large scale subsidence.  Plus, how do you know that is mid level cloud?  there may be some of that, but the high res late imagery, that appears to be a lot of mare's tails all the way out to Utica.

I've got this great instrument that's better than any satellite looking down from 22,500 miles in space: my eyes. It's a nice altostratus deck with cirrus above it. Looking out over the sound and towards Long Island which is about 5 miles away, it looks completely clouded over now. Eastern areas may be OK to start, but the clouds have definitely moved in here over the past 30-45 minutes.

[moneypitmike]

Ha, "hopefully"   ...okay.   

 

But I just looked and it's mare's tails from my vantage point.  

 

Machine guidance has clear at BED through 6 Z, then scattered, then OVC nearing 5 am, but the damage may be down if that is the case.  The cooling potential is very high, so getting even 4 hours of transfer underway, given to the antecedent airmass ... it should get down to the low 20 at a lot of sites.   Maybe even colder.  

 

Isn't your vantage point in eastern Mass?  Come 100 miles west and tell me what your vantage point tells you. 

 

I've got this great instrument that's better than any satellite looking down from 22,500 miles in space: my eyes. It's a nice altostratus deck with cirrus above it. Looking out over the sound and towards Long Island which is about 5 miles away, it looks completely clouded over now. Eastern areas may be OK to start, but the clouds have definitely moved in here over the past 30-45 minutes.

 

LOL

 

33.6/13

[CoastalWx]

I mentioned the NNE deal the other day with a SWFE look to it. Still could happen as the euro ensembles have this too.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've got this great instrument that's better than any satellite looking down from 22,500 miles in space: my eyes. It's a nice altostratus deck with cirrus above it. Looking out over the sound and towards Long Island which is about 5 miles away, it looks completely clouded over now. Eastern areas may be OK to start, but the clouds have definitely moved in here over the past 30-45 minutes.

 

Satellite doesn't lie.  It is not as extensive as that.  There is a leading 30 or so mile wide band of very thin cirrus and very little altostratus deck, and then it is essentially clear west of NYC until mid PA/NY.    

 

You folks are making an IMBY observation and using it to argue the meteorology of the thing.  

[jamesnichols1989]

LOL. it's CCairforceweathergulfstreamblizzard2005

 

 

LOL its me, you got me Phil

yeah once i saw that...i remembered his name from twitter. he seems like a nice guy....maybe just a little overzealous on the snow and tornado threats though.

 

I air on the side of optimism because negativity is just dull.  Realism is dull, the possibilities are endless.  Focus on the positivity of something happening whether it be snow, but not tornadoes, I just saw something as a threat of what could happen, not just simply what's the inevitability of occurring.  Anytime you have a strong level of turning in the atmosphere and enlarged curved hodographs you need to be careful with tornadoes, low CAPE events are common here.  ANyways the snow chances look bleak beyond the day 6-7 system.

[jamesnichols1989]

18z GFS coming in now, looks sharper with disturbance at hour 90 now who knows, maybe just my imagination.

[jamesnichols1989]

GFS is less progressive than the EURO.  GFS goes negative tilt in the IA region, way too early for something big here in SNE, its got a big snowstorm in the Great Lakes, maybe 4-6" for the Great Lakes region.

[moneypitmike]

Satellite doesn't lie.  It is not as extensive as that.  There is a leading 30 or so mile wide band of very thin cirrus and very little altostratus deck, and then it is essentially clear west of NYC until mid PA/NY.    

 

You folks are making an IMBY observation and using it to argue the meteorology of the thing.  

 

Wrong. 

 

We're making an observation and expressing a concern as to whether it might impact the extent of our cooling tonight.  You go on to say it's "mares' tails" based on an image you're looking at.  Be real.  That's equivalent to telling someone it can't be snowing because it's not showing up on radar. 

 

Suffice it to say, you are not aware of what's occurring in our respective areas.  We're not "arguing the meteorology of the thing".  Will the clouds be short-lived?  Perhaps, and hopefully so.

 

31.2/14, broken clouds.

[jamesnichols1989]

I appreciate the very little things in meteorology in the winter more so than the summer, to me temps will be in the 70s and 80s and on some other days its in the 90s here on Cape Cod, MA, but during the winter temps play such a large roll in rain vs snow and snow is much more beloved then rain ever was, even if it was to end a drought.  We all appreciate what rain brings to us, but when snow is on the line rain is just a sign of the warmth thats possible as one lives near the ocean during November and December.  But the mere impact that a few light cirrus clouds makes on how cold it gets during the nighttime and early morning hours is quite fascinating.

[Tornadomachine]

Nice ocean effect clouds on the infrared, doesn't look like too much cloudiness for most of SNE.  

[ORH_wxman]

Satellite and ground obs do show the clouds clearing behind the initial high band until they reappear in central NY State. .

[IsentropicLift]

Nice little storm on the 12z GGEM today

 

[jamesnichols1989]

Still too far north with the disturbance on the 18z GFS, but it's digging more and more, so the trend is our friend, I'm not expecting us to see snow down here in SNE, but NNE could see some plowable, still a little early though.

[jamesnichols1989]

I saw the 00z GGEM had a large storm as well.  Looks mainly rain though.

[ineedsnow]

on the way home tonight I saw 4 different parts of the sky where there were small rainbows awesome to see but my camera on my phone is broken im guessing it was from ice crystals in the clouds 

[weathafella]

The cape man sold me! Lol.

[powderfreak]

I air on the side of optimism because negativity is just dull. Realism is dull, the possibilities are endless. Focus on the positivity of something happening whether it be snow, but not tornadoes.

You must be disappointed a lot, lol.

Realism may be dull but it does nobody any good to just continue wishcasting big events that don't end up taking place.

[HoarfrostHubb]

You must be disappointed a lot, lol.

Realism may be dull but it does nobody any good to just continue wishcasting big events that don't end up taking place.

That worked for a certain person (who we miss) for a long time

[jamesnichols1989]

You must be disappointed a lot, lol.

Realism may be dull but it does nobody any good to just continue wishcasting big events that don't end up taking place.

 

It can be true at time, disappointment hurts at times, but it's life I guess there is really no real good place to be with the weather, you're going to lose no matter what, but I am cautiously optimistic.

[jamesnichols1989]

I don't call it wish casting, that just makes it worse, putting a label on it, I'm just cautiously optimistic, I take turns doing both really.  I'm both optimistic at times and realistic at times, but I see all of the possibilities.

[powderfreak]

That worked for a certain person (who we miss) for a long time

Yeah, bring back the Blizzy and spice it up.

Lately all we talk about is realistic weather, not optimistic weather.

[mahk_webstah]

If we actually flip back to a colder regime around T-day, that would be nice...however, most indications right now are that we will have trouble getting cold anomalies past the 15th or so. Maybe that will change or be short-lived, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes through the end of the month.

 

If we actually flip back to a colder regime around T-day, that would be nice...however, most indications right now are that we will have trouble getting cold anomalies past the 15th or so. Maybe that will change or be short-lived, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes through the end of the month.

Thanks.  It seems like there is room this year for subtle shifts that could make a big difference.  That is almost always the case up here, and where you live too.  Let's hope we don't lose the cold air in Canada.  I'm not worried about cold anomalies, I'm just worried about storm track and hoping there are mechanisms that push things just enough south and east.  That will probably happen as a progression/step down as we get deeper into the season.  08-09 (my first winter here) was good....no real snow in Nov but a stepping down and some light accumulations and cold, then the ice storm followed by a lot of snow in the 2nd half of the month, -20s in January I think, with decent snow in both Jan and Feb and then a melting away in March.  That was a damn good winter and it didn't really get going until the 2nd week of December.

[Typhoon Tip]

Satellite and ground obs do show the clouds clearing behind the initial high band until they reappear in central NY State. .

 

 

 

 

29 at my place, and it was 32 by 6 just about everywhere, just as I said and they chose to argue.

 

"Concern"  gimme a break.

 

Don't tell me to 'get real', when the observations I posted were not my opinion but based on Meteorological fact.