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November Weather Discussion


moneypitmike

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Monday looks frigid

 

Sunday won't be too shabby either. 

 

With respect to the revolving door of BN/N/AN swings, I wonder if that may be a good thing as accompanying pops with those changes may tend toward white as the definition of normal progressively drops.  At least that's my hope.  :)

 

57.1/57, high gust so far of 13mph, .67" on the latest event so far.

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LOL at 35mph being 'meh'.  Sure isn't blockbuster, but it's nothing to sneeze at.  I guess on the coast there that may be the case though.

 

57.5/5

yeah 35 MPH (2 clubs of wind) on the coast is a just a breezy day down here, played golf in much worse. work on the top floor of a 5 story near the mouth of the bay and you can hear the wind when it rips, nothing yet

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68/60 BOS 8am. 11/1

 

High dews for all--check on the elderly.

 

On the serious side, though, that really is something.  It has the feel of those warm foggy mornings that just kill the snow pack.  At least we don't have to worry about that at this point.

 

You'd never guess the date of this without the timestamp.

post-462-0-73600300-1383311215_thumb.jpg

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High dews for all--check on the elderly.

 

On the serious side, though, that really is something.  It has the feel of those warm foggy mornings that just kill the snow pack.  At least we don't have to worry about that at this point.

 

You'd never guess the date of this without the timestamp.

 

 

Doing ok.

 

 

70/59 at 9AM KBOS

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Some of Paul Roundy's products also try to develop a -NAO and then push it west by early December...that's where some might be getting the NAO idea. It might be a little too quick based on the evolution it shows and ensemble data but we'll see.

Over night tele's trying to shift the AO more toward neutral ...I think Ginx mentioned this a couple days ago?   Anyway, not sure what product(s) he uses, but the CPC available to public has it positive, but trending downward.  

 

My own thoughts: 

 

I think though that the newly negative -EPO may be more interesting for us.  The AO can pull away and abandon a ridge node over Alaska and the NW Terr, that would still service as a local circulation source for keep cold available in Canada.  I am also noting that the ice pack has slammed into Barrow now, locking the Siberian to NW Terr. as an over-ice transit.  Any air mass nearing the eternal darkness eclipse that passes through that domain, or even origins there would be a good source region.  

 

Right now ... the operational Euro and GFS look a little oddly shortened with their L/W, wave lengths between the western Aleutians and western Canada -- seems like they are trying to have their cake and eat it too, with a -EPO and a -PNAP pattern underneath.   Either way, appears to be an unstable pattern and one that will probably show up differently in these immediate cycles going forward.   ...If you want early cold and snow, cheer for the -EPO  woot woot!

 

Otherwise, it appears there is erstwhile blocking episodes in the dailies migrating through Canada for these first two weeks ... sort of a theme or tendency. They are smaller spacial -scaled confluence intervals that want to bring cold high pressure periods along 45N.  That's more of an oscillatory pattern between warm and cool, ...as others have noted.   But ... it's somewhat different than what was suggested by a lot of these guidance sources just 4 days ago, when/where it almost looked like a bona fide warm first half of the month.  Using the GFS outright (...always a good idea...   :huh: ) we'd really kind of end up more average with that, I think.  It's got the big ridge for next week, but it's slightly S of the Euro, and that allows for less momentum for warmth here, and then it has a serious "dent" in the ridge by next weekend that is strong enough to usurp cold into the heart of the heretofore warm signal.   Up down up down.  

 

By the way... the GFS now just 36 and 48 hours out, and it refuses to budge on the SE NH/NE MA/S ME bitter cold rain/wet snow signal with weak Norlun in the area.  It's had this now for like ...7 days of runs.  Pretty remarkable consistency for this model.  If it doesn't happen at all, it's a pretty alarming indictment.  One thing I have noticed is that although less emphatic, all models have at one point or another, in that same run up time, had inverted troughing and some lighter QPF dappled about the area.  The NAM does now, too.  The other thing to consider there is that although there is a total 500mb-sfc thickness crash, the 1300 m to sfc may be too warm. 

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Very warm out... have all the sliders and windows open. 

 

64/51 after 1.57" of rainfall (by far the heaviest precip event in over a month).

 

Feels like September, lol.  Yo-Yo continues.

 

Balmy everywhere ...  Looking at hi res vis loop, should be seeing some sun as the afternoon continues to unfold. Combined with slackening wind and native warmth ... 

 

CAA is weak.  The front's through much of VT and now western MA, and ALB is actually up to 66 with lighter WSW wind.  

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