November 2013 pattern and discussion

[packbacker]

Check out the super positive AO coming up shortly. Might make it to 4SD above 0. Then it drops like a rock to neutral and maybe negative territory .

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Have we or anyone south of say NYC ever had a winter event with a ++AO, +NAO, -PNA...it's got to be long odds.

[WeatherNC]

I'm in your camp.

I'd still like to see the soil temps for east TN, for the lols.

They are probably in the upper 50's, unsure, as I have not even looked at mine not that it really matters, it is early November after all. DSutherland has a great photo site for checking out some past November events http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoindex.html I remember 2008 well, we had afternoon snow showers twice in the same week. Just a passing spritz of partially dehydrated half melted balls under squall type cumulus on a stiff NW wind, but frozen nonetheless.

Despite the common conception of VV's cranking on the NW side of an ULL, there are setups when you want to see the trough stay open. Late season I would rather see a closeoff, early on and throughout the heart of winter, prefer an open setup. Just call me old fashioned... I do believe that whatever materializes next week in the eastern US is a direct result of the Aleutian ridge blowing up over the next 120hrs, , 400m H5 delta's over 48hrs near the central part of the chain.

[NCSNOW]

Even though this isn't our neck of the woods and just happened halfway around the world, thought alot of posters on here might be interested. Saw this statement on WU/masters blog. We all will probably be entertained with some amazing photos by Josh when they make it back in a few days. Even saw a post of possible 32 foot storm surge.

 

Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

[griteater]

Have we or anyone south of say NYC ever had a winter event with a ++AO, +NAO, -PNA...it's got to be long odds.

 

While technically a -PNA, you have temporary +PNA type ridging developing behind the system in western N America.  The PNA domain is large, extending from the central Pacific to the eastern U.S.  The big Aleutian ridge anomaly helps to keep the PNA numbers negative.

[Lindsaywx]

Don't look at the 00z gfs....waste of time

[DopplerWx]

00z gfs some token flakes at best across western nc and upstate sc.  models may be coming back down to earth.

[NCCatawba]

Don't look at the 00z gfs....waste of time

 

Still brings down the cold! Win-Win.

[valkhorn]

Don't look at the 00z gfs....waste of time

 

Looks fine to me. It's not even the middle of November yet, and the GFS at that range will not be entirely accurate anyways.

[mackerel_sky]

We just need big precip producers! If it some sort of wintry precip, bonus! But these .10 of an inch/ dry fropas, are starting to let the "D" word creep back into mind! I know we are + 10 inches for the year, but SEP and OCT were pretty dusty around here, and NOV is getting off to a great start

[NCCatawba]

Shadow over the foothills...0.5" mixture Piedmont triad north.

 

 

[CandymanColumbusGA]

This is the map I'm most intrigued by... No, not because of the snow over NC. It's the 1040 mb high!!!! That thing is beastly and will send many of us into the freezer for a night or two. The pattern is so progressive that it won't stick around. However, it does create a tingle or two for winter. Imagine if we were talking about a 1040 mb high in the middle of January... We'd all be huddled in Waycross to keep warm.  

[chapelhillwx]

Euro seems to be keeping its solution. Good hit RDU-RIC or thereabouts.

 

[NCCatawba]

EURO is a go at hour 129.  

By hour 135 heavy precip axis is east...from Fayetteville, NC to Richmond, VA.

 

[NCCatawba]

NWS Raleigh:

 

For Tuesday through thursday: Surprisingly...
agreement among the models is actually worse than it was with
yesterday's runs. 

 

The European model (ecmwf) has been quite consistent in its
last 4 runs in closing off an intense vortex over Kentucky/TN/srn
Appalachians late Wednesday/Wednesday night which wobbles eastward before
lifting out late Thursday. The 00z/08 European model (ecmwf) generates abundant forcing
for ascent over NC and off our coast...fostering development of an
explosive coastal low along the nearshore baroclinic zone...which in
turn spreads a lot of wraparound precipitation over the inland southeast
and midatlantic late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. While the European model (ecmwf)
has had little support from its ensemble mean...it would be
foolhardy to totally discount it...based on both its consistency and
its historical performance.

 

But given that this is a highly
anomalous and climatologically unusual solution...will continue with
a middle-of-the-Road approach to this event...holding closer to
climatology than to any extreme...but certainly this possible storm
bears watching. Apart from the model differences with quantitative precipitation forecast amount and
placement...there is little doubt that the incoming air mass behind
the front will be quite cold...with projected low level thicknesses
dropping toward 1280 M...nearly 60 M below normal...and both the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) taking 850 mb temperatures down to -7c to -10c. Current temperatures
within this air mass (now over northern Yukon/northern northwest territories and the
Beaufort sea) are well below zero fahrenheit...and this air mass
will have limited time to modify before it arrives. Partial
thicknesses from the operational GFS and European model (ecmwf) still suggest a
potential for wintry precipitation...however the optimal pattern for a lot
of cold air in NC and the optimal pattern to get sufficient moisture
into NC are usually very different.

 

With the operational model solutions so divergent...we cannot at this time state a preferred
scenario with any confidence. Will stay with chance probability of precipitation early Wednesday
morning into Thursday and will keep any precipitation as just cold rain for
now...but we will closely monitor model and observed trends over the
next several days.

[FLweather]

Well to sum it up at 6z...

 

 

Euro still in its own world. GFS is dryer non eventful front passge. 6z DGEX from 18z is a complete 360. Siding with the GFS.

[FLweather]

Well there is two distinct possibilities.

 

Euro is too fast with the phasing, stronger

 

GFS is right on the money about this being a light snow event for VA,NC,SC nothing too big with later phasing off the coast.

 

 

Even though Nam is not the best now its entering the time frame which should give clues as well by 12z and 18z..

Hey for craps and giggles fwiw nam is stronger and further west by couple hundred miles than gfs with the energy dropping into the M/W G/L region.

 

By 12z  euro, gfs, nam should start reaching a general concenus with euro the outlier taming some on the strength/timing issues.

[FallsLake]

Well to sum it up at 6z...

 

 

Euro still in its own world. GFS is dryer non eventful front passge. 6z DGEX from 18z is a complete 360. Siding with the GFS.

As many have stated this is a very unusual setup. So it would be best to be pessimistic. But, the GFS has played this game in the past where it loses the storm at day 5 or so and then brings it back at the last minute. All we need is for the players to stay on the table. **and it is good the euro is still on board.

[franklin NCwx]

no surprise the euro was more progressive compared to its 12z run.

[metalicwx366]

This is the map I'm most intrigued by... No, not because of the snow over NC. It's the 1040 mb high!!!! That thing is beastly and will send many of us into the freezer for a night or two. The pattern is so progressive that it won't stick around. However, it does create a tingle or two for winter. Imagine if we were talking about a 1040 mb high in the middle of January... We'd all be huddled in Waycross to keep warm.

:lmao:

TWC has a morning low next Thursday of 34 here. I'm guessing you guys to the N will have lows in the 20s or potentially teens if the 0z run of the GFS were to happen.

[packbacker]

Euro ENS mean has about 0.5" of precip, not bad compared to the Op of 0.6", for RDU.

[1300m]

Almost right on cue from what I had said yesterday, the 00Z ECMWF shifts eastward and dumps on RDU. The H5 look is another variation with a similar outcome by the ECMWF, which if you look at it one way could lend more credibility to it's end solution and less if you look at it another way. It seems like in recent years the ECMWF has really tended to overphase systems (even thinking all the way back to some of the wild 12.26.10 solutions it had with 30+" at RDU) before coming back to reality. I think with the ECMWF's superior data assimilation and overall history when it has 4+ runs of strong agreement, a closed off circulation at H5 can't be ruled out, but the location, intensity, and ultimately sensible weather are still very much in question. Just slight shifts in the H5 pattern go from a western SC/NC/VA wallop to more of a statewide hit in those locations.

 

I have to imagine that we'll see the ECMWF back off of these extreme solutions, but how much interaction between the upper level energy ultimately happens is THE question imo. It's quite possible a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF is to be had, which would probably be the best outcome anyway for the majority of us.

 

I won't be super confident in any model solutions until the upper energy is in the RAOB network, which means probably the 12z runs on Tuesday. Between now and then, I'd expect to continue to see model fluctuations, and we'll just have to watch for any sustained trends.

[FallsLake]

Euro ENS mean has about 0.5" of precip, not bad compared to the Op of 0.6", for RDU.

I still think we have something to track. Everybody is focused on the GFS showing just a frontal passage, but I as I stated before I've seen this before. I think our chances are actually higher now than 24 hours back when all the models were showing a hit. 

[1300m]

Euro ENS mean has about 0.5" of precip, not bad compared to the Op of 0.6", for RDU.

 

That's probably the most encouraging news yet. Do you know how much precip the Euro ENS were showing at 12z yesterday?

[DopplerWx]

at this point I would much rather have the euro in our camp than the gfs.

[Brick Tamland]

Well, looks like we have a model war. The thing about the Euro is it is being consistent and not backing down, and like RAH said, it is usually very reliable. But even a blend of the Euro and GFS would be nice for this time of year. Now we will have to see if the Euro stands its ground, and if the GFS comes back around to the Euro as we head into next week.

[packbacker]

That's probably the most encouraging news yet. Do you know how much precip the Euro ENS were showing at 12z yesterday?

I didn't check yesterday but will check later today after 12z run.

[Cold Rain]

Well, looks like we have a model war. The thing about the Euro is it is being consistent and not backing down, and like RAH said, it is usually very reliable. But even a blend of the Euro and GFS would be nice for this time of year. Now we will have to see if the Euro stands its ground, and if the GFS comes back around to the Euro as we head into next week.

Update for Brick: You no longer want a compromise of the new GFS and the new Euro. You want the new Euro, maybe just a tick south of its current run. If you're going to route for fantasy things, then at least route for the right things.

[Brick Tamland]

Update for Brick: You no longer want a compromise of the new GFS and the new Euro. You want the new Euro, maybe just a tick south of its current run. If you're going to route for fantasy things, then at least route for the right things.

 

I don't want to be too greedy this early in the game.

[Cold Rain]

Almost right on cue from what I had said yesterday, the 00Z ECMWF shifts eastward and dumps on RDU. The H5 look is another variation with a similar outcome by the ECMWF, which if you look at it one way could lend more credibility to it's end solution and less if you look at it another way. It seems like in recent years the ECMWF has really tended to overphase systems (even thinking all the way back to some of the wild 12.26.10 solutions it had with 30+" at RDU) before coming back to reality. I think with the ECMWF's superior data assimilation and overall history when it has 4+ runs of strong agreement, a closed off circulation at H5 can't be ruled out, but the location, intensity, and ultimately sensible weather are still very much in question. Just slight shifts in the H5 pattern go from a western SC/NC/VA wallop to more of a statewide hit in those locations.

I have to imagine that we'll see the ECMWF back off of these extreme solutions, but how much interaction between the upper level energy ultimately happens is THE question imo. It's quite possible a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF is to be had, which would probably be the best outcome anyway for the majority of us.

I won't be super confident in any model solutions until the upper energy is in the RAOB network, which means probably the 12z runs on Tuesday. Between now and then, I'd expect to continue to see model fluctuations, and we'll just have to watch for any sustained trends.

My gut says we'll have a storm, but it won't be quite as far south as the Euro is currently showing. I fully anticipate an all rain event around these parts, with perhaps some snow back in the mountains (especially the VA mountains) and the northern parts of VA and north.

I am very encouraged about the big HP and the fact that these keep showing up. Hopefully, that trend will continue through the winter.

Regarding the overall pattern, the AO is forecast to drop sharply toward neutral, the NAO is forecast to drop toward neutral, and the PNA is forecast to drop toward neutral. The big Greenland block that showed up a couple days ago is gone. Anyway, there's no torch in sight, and it's fun to have something to track so early in the season.

[griteater]

This is 4 of the 06z GFS Ensemble members.  The operational run on the left shows the farther west / not as sharp ridge axis extending into SW Canada, while the P1 member shows how that ridge breaks / rolls over and digs the shortwave farther southeast, similar to the last two Euro runs.