WeatherNC Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Anyone have a DGEX clown map for this evening?No, but I texted the 6 hour thickness plot at 144 to Shaggy and downeast, clown map should be a winner for mid Nov runs, ever. I did go back this evening and compare the 12z ecmwf and ukmet through 120hrs, they are very similar in the evolution of what will eventually be the long wave trough in question. The Euro appears to be cooking with more gas, but I have noticed this over the past couple years, similar to the CMC of old, it tends to overdue high and low pressures. UKMET with a 1040 moving through the northern plains seems more reasonable. P-type issues or not, this should be a stout shot of transient cold for November, with freezing temps possibly into the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 No, but I texted the 6 hour thickness plot at 144 to Shaggy and downeast, clown map should be a winner for mid Nov runs, ever. I did go back this evening and compare the 12z ecmwf and ukmet through 120hrs, they are very similar in the evolution of what will eventually be the long wave trough in question. The Euro appears to be cooking with more gas, but I have noticed this over the past couple years, similar to the CMC of old, it tends to overdue high and low pressures. UKMET with a 1040 moving through the northern plains seems more reasonable. P-type issues or not, this should be a stout shot of transient cold for November, with freezing temps possibly into the panhandle. LOL its hunt week for us so I havent been doing much this week but sleeping and hunting, but have kinda been watching this setup I knew a "1-3" book it" text was gonna happen sooner or later lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Here is a video where I discuss the overall evolution of this system. It will be very interesting to watch how this upper level low develops and spins up. There is a lot of uncertainty with this potential event, so I am trying not to get too hyped up about it, but I did want to let those who follow me about what is going on.The way I see it now, there is a chance of snow in the southeast. North Carolina and Virginia look to be the sweet spots if everything comes together perfectly. It will be hard for it to snow in the foothills and piedmont of NC because of the nature of the storm. With cold air not being in place before the moisture moves in, it is very difficult for the cold air to push underneath it. It is not impossible for it to snow in NC without the cold air in place prior to the moisture arrival; however, it is very difficult for this to happen.I am excited to see what the EURO and GFS say tonight, and I hope to have more clarity about what will happen tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Can't access right now, bro. 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 DGEX is still running guys, 192hr just now updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Phase? ULL? These are hard enough to get in Feb. let alone Nov. I aint holding my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Maybe the strongest hurricane(typhoon) in 40 years can shake up the atmosphere enough to produce something special.! That's a lot of energy moving around. Flurries would be great, anything else would be gravy! The earliest I can remember snow in Greenville, SC , with an actual coating , was Nov 9 of 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Thanks NC and Jon! You guys are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 That's one heck of a ULL... like a nice bowling ball of snow coming this way Anyone looked at the 850 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 DGEX is still running guys, 192hr just now updated. Thats a solid 9" event here which would be double our yearly average......its so kooky and just utterly unprecedented that it might just happen........nahhhhh Still strange things have happened pretty far south in November http://www.weather.gov/media/chs/events/Record%20Snowfall-21Nov2006.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It figures this pops up on the horizon exactly when I need to be studying for an exam. DGEX clown map has snow in every NC county which is rare in January let alone November. I think that's only happened a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 That's one heck of a ULL... like a nice bowling ball of snow coming this way Anyone looked at the 850 temps? Which Model/run? They're different, but I looked at I think the Euro earlier which had a snow map for around 1-3"+ for central NC and based simply on 850's alone it looked more like a T to maybe 1" event...I haven't looked at any other model 850's though, so I don't know. Definitely flirting with the 0c line here though. 2m temps seem to be fairly decent overall I think, don't make me bring up soil temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Thats a solid 9" event here which would be double our yearly average......its so kooky and just utterly unprecedented that it might just happen........nahhhhh Still strange things have happened pretty far south in November http://www.weather.gov/media/chs/events/Record%20Snowfall-21Nov2006.pdf Yeah. I mentioned this earlier. Thanks Griteater for posting the reanalysis of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Thats a solid 9" event here which would be double our yearly average......its so kooky and just utterly unprecedented that it might just happen........nahhhhh Still strange things have happened pretty far south in November http://www.weather.gov/media/chs/events/Record%20Snowfall-21Nov2006.pdf and to think that's the 21st of Nov! See this image? Glancing at the years in this chart make me snap back to reality and accept that this event probably won't make any of us happy come next week, but crazier things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 and to think that's the 21st of Nov! See this image? Glancing at the years in this chart make me snap back to reality and accept that this event probably won't make any of us happy come next week, but crazier things have happened. Seems like I remember enough snow to cover the ground on Nov 11th one year, it was after I had moved to the house my parents still live in so that would make it have to be after 1984. I would be thrilled just to see flakes anything more than that is pure butter in November lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Does anyone have the soil temp map link handy by chance? I lost the bookmark somewhere along the line and would like to take a gander just for the lols. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Here you go boys. This one happened on a Sunday morning late and was gone by sunset. Remember it well and was the earliest season snowfall accum I witnessed living in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Does anyone have the soil temp map link handy by chance? I lost the bookmark somewhere along the line and would like to take a gander just for the lols. Thanks in advance! This is what I use http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/map/?table=hourly select soil temps from the pull down where it says "Air Temperature" on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I am pulling for somebody to hit their yearly snowfall average BEFORE Nov 15th with this one. I don't care what area of the southeast pulls it off, it would just be awesome to see it happen somewhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Heres the case study from Nov 2000 with synoptic analysis e.t.c. Helpful to some degree in making comparisons to next weeks possible event. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/ Had .70 qpf fall which melted as it fell and also due to warm soil temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This is what I use http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/map/?table=hourly select soil temps from the pull down where it says "Air Temperature" on the right. I wouldn't worry about soil temps too much at this stage in the game....let's get the storm inside 48 hours first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This is what I use http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/map/?table=hourly select soil temps from the pull down where it says "Air Temperature" on the right. You rock! Unfortunately that doesn't cover my area but still, I appreciate the quick response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I wouldn't worry about soil temps too much at this stage in the game....let's get the storm inside 48 hours first. I'm not, haha. I would never fret about soil temps in November, come on man...However, inside 48 or 100 some odd hours, there's a lot of things going against this storm doing much in NC and it's hard to ignore ground temp as one of them...obviously it will cut down on the ratios but I wouldn't care I just want to see the white stuff flying. You rock! Unfortunately that doesn't cover my area but still, I appreciate the quick response. No prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 DGEX is still running guys, 192hr just now updated. Wow! Even if it doesn't stick because the ground is too warm, it would still be fun to see snow falling already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 we have gone over this ground temp issue MANY times before. they DO NOT MATTER as much as people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 we have gone over this ground temp issue MANY times before. they DO NOT MATTER as much as people think. Not with 9 inches of snow haha But I have seen warm ground wreak havoc on 3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 we have gone over this ground temp issue MANY times before. they DO NOT MATTER as much as people think. For an event like what I think this event will be, it will. But for neg tilt ULL dumping 12"+, no, it will not. Rates help, but as far as this system is concerned I'm quite pessimistic about accumulations, at least in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 we have gone over this ground temp issue MANY times before. they DO NOT MATTER as much as people think. I'm in your camp. I'd still like to see the soil temps for east TN, for the lols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Check out the super positive AO coming up shortly. Might make it to 4SD above 0. Then it drops like a rock to neutral and maybe negative territory . http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm in your camp. I'd still like to see the soil temps for east TN, for the lols. Not sure how reliable this is but here you go http://dtn.ourcoop.com/index.cfm?show=1&mapID=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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