DCMetroWinston Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 But some of these temps way down in the teens depicted on the models would not just break records, but obliterate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It snowed here, in Central FL, and Thunder snow in Charleston in November 2006, I'm pretty sure it can snow in NC if the setup allows it. Doesn't really matter if it's the 4th of July or Christmas. Remember there was a big snow and freeze in your area in late Nov., 1864, and lightening does strike in the same place twice. Of course, for that to happen you'd need rain. Have you had much lately? Didn't think so So timing might be an issue, with cold chasing a dry FroPa Now if we get the gom low, all bets are off. Goofy's been wanting to pull that in starting 10 days back, or so, but Bob won't let me be even the slightest bit interested in something way out there in GoofyLand, even though it looked so good, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This far out I can't take the models too seriously. There's still plenty of time for them to sober up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Euro ENS, not surprisingly weaker and E, would love to see how many individual members are amped as the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Euro ENS matches up well with the GFS Op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If the 12z ECMWF phased a little later, this would allow the energy to dig further southeast which would put more of central NC in the game. Still a long way to go, and we'll probably see all sorts of wild swings in modeling before this is over. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see RDU get buried in one of these ECMWF runs before long, only to probably see it go away and then who knows...the timing of the phase is so crucial to how this plays out it will likely continue to change until 24-48 hours out. Thats a very good point. It is going to be interesting to watch this evolve over the next 100+ hours. While not impossible to have snow in Nov the Euro is way to eager in the phase imo. I think the less amplified later phasing of GFS runs are more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If the 12z ECMWF phased a little later, this would allow the energy to dig further southeast which would put more of central NC in the game. Still a long way to go, and we'll probably see all sorts of wild swings in modeling before this is over. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see RDU get buried in one of these ECMWF runs before long, only to probably see it go away and then who knows...the timing of the phase is so crucial to how this plays out it will likely continue to change until 24-48 hours out. Probably going to be a lot of back and forth between now and next Wednsday/Thursday. At least we know the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Probably going to be a lot of back and forth between now and next Wednsday/Thursday. At least we know the potential is there. Bingo! At this point, we should be pondering potential, rather than getting bent out of shape about 30-mile shifts in the freezing line. Lonnnng way to go with this one, and (hopefully) many more behind it this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 From Raleigh...sounds like a sound approach... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE IN THIS PERIOD...WITH MAJORDIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF APOTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGIONMID NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED DISAGREEMENT...LONG RANGEMODEL GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN (~1045 MBHIGH) WILL PLUNGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLYNEXT WEEK...BUILDING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE MIDDLE OFNEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARDTHE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ANDINCREASING CLOUD COVER ON TUE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANDINCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WED/THU. PRECIP CHANCES ARE DIFFICULT TOASCERTAIN GIVEN SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THEAFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTIONTHE RANGE (DAY 6-7) IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...SUFFICIENTCONSISTENCY (MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN) EXISTS TO JUSTIFY THEINCLUSION OF A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DAY 6-7 PERIOD(~WED). PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TIMING (PERHAPS TYPE) WILL HIGHLYDEPEND ON THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM NEXTWEEK...A SYSTEM THAT HAS YET TO EVOLVE. AS A RESULT...IT WOULD BEUNWISE TO ACCEPT ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 From Raleigh...sounds like a sound approach... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE IN THIS PERIOD...WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MID NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED DISAGREEMENT...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN (~1045 MB HIGH) WILL PLUNGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUILDING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON TUE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WED/THU. PRECIP CHANCES ARE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION THE RANGE (DAY 6-7) IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY (MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN) EXISTS TO JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DAY 6-7 PERIOD (~WED). PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TIMING (PERHAPS TYPE) WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM NEXT WEEK...A SYSTEM THAT HAS YET TO EVOLVE. AS A RESULT...IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO ACCEPT ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE. -VINCENT True, but the combo of the Euro and GFS right now looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow check it out from NWS in GSP.. and 13 news was just talking about the potential of the first snow storm of the season next Wednesday . PARSING THE VARIOUS THERMODYNAMIC SIGNALS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCECREATES QUITE THE INTERESTING CONUNDRUM...AS ALL THE MODELS SEEM TOAGREE ON ONE THING...INTENSE COLD ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR WILLACCOMPANY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SIGNALS THEPOTENTIAL FOR P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA AT SOME POINT DURING MID-TO-LATE WEEK. AS RAPIDCOOLING OF THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THISSCENARIO...ONE WOULD PRIMARILY EXPECT A RAIN VS SNOW ISSUE. THISAPPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC COLD AIR VS. FORCING FOR UVV RACE...A RACETHAT THE COLD AIR TYPICALLY LOSES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF OURREGION. IT IS JUST VERY UNUSUAL FOR THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO SEEANY MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER WHEN THE COLD AIR ISNOT ALREADY IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF UVV. THEREFORE...PTYPEWILL BE ADVERTISED WITH A STRONG NOD TOWARD CLIMO...WITH -SN OR-RA/-SN IN THE MTNS...-RA/-SN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOREAST OF THE MTNS...AND ALL -RA ELSEWHERE. HAVING SAID THAT...THISDOES HAVE THE APPEARANCE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/SYNOPTICALLYENHANCED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT FOR THE NC MTNS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THISIS A SITUATION THAT WILL REQUIRE CAREFUL MONITORING OVER THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 18z GFS still indicating a less amplified fropa setup solution. Must say GFS has been consistent this may be a VA,NC,SC light snow event no more than a few inches tops. This fropa setup would be better for R>S through most of NC,VA than a more amp solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 18z GFS says, "what storm?" Still looks like some token flakes throughout NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS isn't as tall/sharp with the ridge behind the trough. 12z Euro rolled that ridge over and sent the shortwave farther south. Most modeling (op / ensemble members) favors more of the GFS solution as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS isn't as tall/sharp with the ridge behind the trough. 12z Euro rolled that ridge over and sent the shortwave farther south. Most modeling (op / ensemble members) favors more of the GFS solution as of now. Todays GFS have trended more progressive with each run. Maybe tomorrow they go the other way, it can't get worse than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow check it out from NWS in GSP.. and 13 news was just talking about the potential of the first snow storm of the season next Wednesday . PARSING THE VARIOUS THERMODYNAMIC SIGNALS FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE CREATES QUITE THE INTERESTING CONUNDRUM...AS ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON ONE THING...INTENSE COLD ADVECTION/ARCTIC AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/ NORTHEAST GEORGIA AT SOME POINT DURING MID-TO-LATE WEEK. AS RAPID COOLING OF THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THIS SCENARIO...ONE WOULD PRIMARILY EXPECT A RAIN VS SNOW ISSUE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC COLD AIR VS. FORCING FOR UVV RACE...A RACE THAT THE COLD AIR TYPICALLY LOSES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF OUR REGION. IT IS JUST VERY UNUSUAL FOR THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO SEE ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER WHEN THE COLD AIR IS NOT ALREADY IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF UVV. THEREFORE...PTYPE WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH A STRONG NOD TOWARD CLIMO...WITH -SN OR -RA/-SN IN THE MTNS...-RA/-SN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE MTNS...AND ALL -RA ELSEWHERE. HAVING SAID THAT...THIS DOES HAVE THE APPEARANCE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT FOR THE NC MTNS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A SITUATION THAT WILL REQUIRE CAREFUL MONITORING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. That's a great summation I believe. Mountain event, and token flakes elsewhere. Timing events with northern stream energy you just can't rely on in the piedmont on NC IMO. Cold air needs to be in place and moisture needs to hit it. Really nice we're getting a consistent fantasy storm in November though. Couldn't buy a real fantasy storm at all really (other than a single model run here and there) the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Seems to me like the gfs is on a more plausible scenario. I don't think any of us have a problem with just token flakes in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Todays GFS have trended more progressive with each run. Maybe tomorrow they go the other way, it can't get worse than the 18z run. Sure it can.. it can bring that the big SE ridge idea from a few days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Sure it can.. it can bring that the big SE ridge idea from a few days back. I'd say that has a better chance of happening than a fantasy snowstorm! Euro will ditch the snow threat in the se by tomorrow! Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Sure it can.. it can bring that the big SE ridge idea from a few days back. Lets just hope the Euro stays on board. Remember with hurricane Sandy the Euro stayed consistent and the GFS kept going out to sea. Also the GFS has pissed us off almost all hurricane especially with Karen. Maybe this is another one of those times. We'll see if the Euro stills shows it. If not, Next!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 To early in year to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 JKL mentioned there'd be lots of waffling of the models due to ever changing Pacific sampling data with this system. That said, in East Tennessee some of the largest snow events ever recorded happened in Mid-November. So it's not out of the question that such an event could occur in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DGEX is a NC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like it pops something in the lee side and hammers from CLT TO GSP and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Anyone have a DGEX clown map for this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DGEX is a NC special. Yeah it is on this run.... lol. The whole state would have snow with R>S even at the coast. Even SC would be game to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Somebody post the clown map for heaven's sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Need DGEX clown porn stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 E wall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html DGEX http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Edit: Its not a paid site. But the intial time is right and the hours are at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 E wall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html DGEX http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Edit: Its not a paid site. But the intial time is right and the hours are at the top. Can't access right now, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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