DCMetroWinston Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 WxSouth2 hours ago A couple days ago I posted this top row of images, showing European Model in its day 7-10 outlook. I was a little nervous about what could happen in the East, because the Aleutian Ridge was so far west, that would possibly leave enough room for an amplifying cold lobe to drop in from Canada. So I put a "?" in the East around that time frame. Now the models are all dropping a huge lobe of very cold air, and upper energy, and creating a big MidAtlantic and East Coast snowstorm middle of next week. There's til plenty of time to watch this evolve and see exactly who gets hit, and with what type of Precip. Full extensive update at www.wxsouth.com for monthly subscribers. I cover this, the makings of big Positive Tilt Troughs, Big Surface High Pressures and how this year compares with a (non-existent Arctic High) last year, and much more. Join up for interesting synoptic weather discussions and trends...should be a very exciting Winter coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This pattern would be an odd one to produce a wintry event especially outside the normal climo time with a very +AO/+NAO. The s/w of note looks to move into Alaska tomorrow, so we should see a bit more stability in the modeling solutions, I would think in 24-48 hours. With the setup not ideal synoptically (we depend a lot on timing) and this being mid November, the odds are heavily against something. Keep in mind this is still 6 days out so we have plenty of time for wild model swings. However, the fact tha the op GFS and ECMWF and a fair number of their ens members show it, does raise the alert a bit. It is fun to see and worth following, but dont get too excited yet. I certainly echo these sentiments. The current solution from the GFS/ECMWF entails phasing of two pieces of upper level energy that won't enter the RAOB network for ~5 days. I wouldn't be surprised to see some pretty significant model swings right on up to 24-48 hours before the "event" begins. It's quite possible model solutions in a couple days show a much less amplified solution with just a dry, albeit quite cold, fropa. Nonetheless, it's exciting to already have something to watch and it almost feels like a nonething-to-lose prospect this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 A dry front just came through, Mr. Hanky showed up, and it's a week out. Will there be cliff diving? I'd be less worried about the cold, and real worried about the rain, or lack there of. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12Z solutions will be north and west. Book it. The one thing I like so far that is real, is that the warm-ups keep getting pushed back or replaced by patterns that produce normal or below normal temps. The first warm-up was seen in late October to commence in early November. Then, around of the first of the month, it was supposed to warm up around mid-month. Now, it looks like that is off. Maybe late November/early December now? Anyway, no torches yet. Aleution ridging has been pretty persistent of late. The GOA vortex this year hasn't been a stationary feature either. It seems to form and migrate to the SW. That keeps repeating in the modeling. Anyway, it certainly looks like a different pattern than the last couple of years. N/W would be great, better than a dry cold front pushing through, atleast something to follow. When was the last time both the Euro/GFS had a storm like this modeled 6-7 days that didn't materialize atleast something for somebody (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 N/W would be great, better than a dry cold front pushing through, atleast something to follow. When was the last time both the Euro/GFS had a storm like this modeled 6-7 days that didn't materialize atleast something for somebody (knock on wood). I know it. It's a little wound up for a fast flow, but we'll see. Hopefully, we can at least get a little rain out of it. Tony, just for you, shields are down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Are we actually talking about a snowstorm in NOVEMBER?? Goes to show that anything can happen in a NC winter. Models are locking on to a storm with GFS and ECMWF showing similar system now... if it can snow in March or April in nc, why not November ? November is colder than either of those months. We're only 6 weeks from the winter solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just happened to drop in on a whim today to see this possibility a week out. Didn't imagine we'd have anything to look at this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 if it can snow in March or April in nc, why not November ? November is colder than either of those months. We're only 6 weeks from the winter solstice. For the same reasons May 1st isn't August 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Someone should go ahead and kill the storm possibility by creating a thread for it. It's too early for me to get emotionally invested. On topic, it's been mentioned, but I am loving seeing the high pressures in Canada. With so many calling for warmth and a lack of snow this year, I REALLY hope Robert nails it and many of us have a banner snow year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS setting up for something at 138! Edit: NC and souther VA get a little snow between 138-144. System more progressive this run. No bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Youngsville, NC sounding at hour 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS setting up for something at 138! Edit: NC and souther VA get a little snow between 138-144. System more progressive this run. No bomb. GFS progressive bias in play perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS progressive bias in play perhaps? Not a bad run for this many days out. We all know the models will shift. A run like this after last nights runs can be considered good. *GFS (seems to) always have a day 5 or so problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well this is interesting to say the least.... -10 line running along NC/VA border with a tongue of QPF West of 77 Then at hour 144, the -10 line dips into NW NC with QPF still present in the same area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS progressive bias in play perhaps? I don't think so.....the pattern is what is . Its progressive as heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Youngsville, NC sounding at hour 138. I assume this is from your model page. Anyway to see omega in there or have it as another graphic side by side with the sounding?...just throwing out a customer request anyway...lol. I guess that's where bufkit comes in handy, although the bufkit graphics seem a bit wonky to me - Atari-ish, 1980's. I haven't downloaded it, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I know it. It's a little wound up for a fast flow, but we'll see. Hopefully, we can at least get a little rain out of it. Tony, just for you, shields are down. Thanks, CR! You guys can have the early snow, if I could just get a gom low coming over top of me! I just checked the gauge and I guess you could describe what was in there as ant tears, or maybe just one ant tear. The sun is out so that tear just when poof into the sky, leaving a heaping helping of dry, for the next round of cold. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I assume this is from your model page. Anyway to see omega in there or have it as another graphic side by side with the sounding?...just throwing out a customer request anyway...lol. I guess that's where bufkit comes in handy, although the bufkit graphics seem a bit wonky to me - Atari-ish, 1980's. I haven't downloaded it, yet. Yep lots of good stuff on there. WE are in the process of adding an intereactive vertical cross section tool as well. I think one of my scripts will have omega in it for that, that will allow you to visualize it well. I dont have omega on the soundings, but of course you can see it on the plan view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 here is an isentropic plot on the 296K surface with omega on it at hour 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Almost looks like one of those lee side trofs enhance precip east of the mountains. CLT looks cold enough for snow, for what it's worth(not much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Anything is possible weather wise.... but I sure hope the models is not busting our chops. This would be one heck of a way to start the season. Now that is close to 5 days out should we take it and run with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 here is an isentropic plot on the 296K surface with omega on it at hour 138. That would be a signiciant deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yawn....(comes out of non-winter weather season hibernation) Oh look, fantasy storm already...Great!! In regard to next week's weather, where is the energy coming from? Upper level energy heading off the coast then developing into a system? I hate those and they never seem to work out for anybody west of 77. My attention is going to be looking for storms coming along the STJ. That seems to be where the money is and what we've been lacking the last two years. Anything else and it's hoping for perfect timing, which never ends up....perfect. Good to see cold early on though. Anything between now and January 1 is bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Anything is possible weather wise.... but I sure hope the models is not busting our chops. This would be one heck of a way to start the season. Now that is close to 5 days out should we take it and run with it? I am. My area. Light rain with cold chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I am here Brick. Always will be for interesting weather in our region. Obviously climo argues very strongly against any type of widespread significant wintry weather in mid-November for NC. Greatest snowfall for RDU on record in November is 3.6 incehs on Nov 20th 1914. We did get 2.2 inches of snow on Nov 19th, 2000. And we had measurable snow of 0.4 inches on Nov 21st 2008. It is certainly rare. This pattern would be an odd one to produce a wintry event especially outside the normal climo time with a very +AO/+NAO. The s/w of note looks to move into Alaska tomorrow, so we should see a bit more stability in the modeling solutions, I would think in 24-48 hours. With the setup not ideal synoptically (we depend a lot on timing) and this being mid November, the odds are heavily against something. Keep in mind this is still 6 days out so we have plenty of time for wild model swings. However, the fact tha the op GFS and ECMWF and a fair number of their ens members show it, does raise the alert a bit. It is fun to see and worth following, but dont get too excited yet. Thats the other storm I was thinking about yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 in perhaps a very bold move, DC area tv meteorologists added snow to their Wednesday/Thursday forecasts. very bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well in other news the NAO and AO look to be going negative(good). The PNA looks to stay negative(not good). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h Snowing at hour 138 over much of NC per 12z GFS. http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html … #snow pic.twitter.com/5AY86ErhLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Continuity is what I am looking for 5-6 days out, sure that will be run to run changes, with the overall theme still indicating a possibility. NW NC - Interior VA would be favored, anything outside of those areas would be a bonus type deal this early. Measurable type, even tokens, are almost of unheard in mid November, I remember 2008, we had afternoon snow showers twice in one week, around the 20th of Nov. I would be thrilled with an advisory type of event further inland, patience though, at least we finally have something to track - been awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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