mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Congrats I-85. It's really getting good now!!!! The first DGEX map posting of the year!! I'm not sure what year it was, 2000 , if I recall, had several snow/ winter precip events through about the whole month of November, anybody remember this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Congrats I-85 Yeehaw boys we got something now haha. Man what a huge flip in the models over the last two days. One run we were looking at a rather slow November now models show very active deep eastern trough. Someone might get a nice early surprise here soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 . It's really getting good now!!!! The first DGEX map posting of the year!! I'm not sure what year it was, 2000 , if I recall, had several snow/ winter precip events through about the whole month of November, anybody remember this? Was just about to post the same thing, you beat me to it. It's officially winter storm tracking season when DGEX porn starts getting posted, haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Is there a consensus that it will get quite cold next week, 6 to 7 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's been a long time since I've seen a 1045mb HP shooting down out of Canada... in November nonetheless! BTW, the 0z GFS looks to be another big weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 it is probably wrong in the details, but there it is probably sniffing overall changes afoot that are significant nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 it is probably wrong in the details, but there it is probably sniffing overall changes afoot that are significant nonetheless. There is that probablility but aswell as the pattern changer for the for the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Folks, The 0Z THU doctor is another run going crazy with SE cold..this one 11/13-15 causing hard freezes many areas 11/15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 So it still looks like euro on board with s/e m/a snowstorm next week also. Very interesting atm. What a change this week presents. Mild start to Nov followed by potential of snow, frozen precip in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 EURO snowfall map from Brad Panovich giving NC some light accumulations (1-3"+) next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 6z GFS clocks Va/NC. Euro also has snow from NC to New England. Attached is 6z GFS snow forecast and RDU sounding at hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like we have a candidate for the first big hit or big letdown of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Long odds. Got goosebumps anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I would be lying if I said I was not a bit excited, but I’m also extremely pessimistic. It is really hard to get accumulating snow outside the mountains this time of year. If this was one month later I would be really excited, but we need to acknowledge the time of year. Even if the models keep showing the snow right up to the event, I’ll be surprised if it actually snows. Not trying to be a downer but just being realistic. It has happened before (2000 I think) but even then the snow had to fight warm ground temps. We did end of with a couple of inches but the roads were never a problem. I remember walking down the street thinking “man it just snowed and there still isn’t Christmas lights up yet”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Lol the 0z Euro. Saw this image in the New England forum. Crazy solution. http://i.imgur.com/a5LBrKu.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Well here's RAH's discussion from last night: FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE CALM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE COMINGTO AN END BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TREND TOWARDUNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARDTOWARD NC TUESDAY... LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAYEVENING OR NIGHT... PROPELLED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPINGSOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER NC AREEXPECTED TO PLUNGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDINGIN... FALLING AT GSO TO 1305 M ON THE 00Z/07 GFS AND TO ABONE-CHILLING 1275 M ON THE 00Z/07 ECMWF (WHICH SEEMS FAR TOO LOWFOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THISMID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEYBEFORE CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY... WHICH WOULD PROMPTINCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THEMIDATLANTIC AND NRN NC. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW INCREASES IN DEPTH DOWNTO 700-850 MB... STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNAHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAYNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THATPROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO BRINGABOUT A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR FAR NRN AND NWSECTIONS... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF IS AT SUCH AN EXTREME (ANDMUCH STRONGER/COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN)... WITH ITS 850 MB TEMPSFALLING WELL BELOW ZERO (TO -9C AT GSO) AND A PARTICULARLY INTENSEMID LEVEL VORTEX OVER WV BY THURSDAY MORNING... THAT IT`S TOUGH TOBUY INTO IT. SINCE THE NEW ECMWF IS SO MUCH MORE DRAMATIC THAN ITSPREVIOUS RUN AND WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM ITS WASHED-OUT ECMWFENSEMBLE MEAN... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHILLY (BUT ABOVE-FREEZING)TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT THISSTORM SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCESIN THERMAL STRUCTURE... IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS RANGE...MODELS DO AGREE ON AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITHAN UNIMPEDED TAP INTO TRUE POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND AT LEASTSOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLUX. STAY TUNED. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Lol the 0z Euro. Saw this image in the New England forum. Crazy solution. http://i.imgur.com/a5LBrKu.png Ack! 2 ft of snow for the DelMarVa area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Folks, The 0Z THU doctor is another run going crazy with SE cold..this one 11/13-15 causing hard freezes many areas 11/15! And yet just a couple of days ago the models were predicting a major SE ridge during this time. That's got to be the biggest flip I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 And yet just a couple of days ago the models were predicting a major SE ridge during this time. That's got to be the biggest flip I've ever seen. Models don't initially handle the impacts of storms such as this 948 mb storm depicted below very well. It is not surprising that a piece of cold air is going to be flung SE ward landing somewhere in the Eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The Weather Channel sure is hyping snow for NC, VA and the Mid Atlantic next week. Jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Interesting pattern and storm to watch for sure; however, I am not totally bought in on the idea yet. The trend will be very important to watch the next couple of runs to see if the cold air remains or does the solutions begin to push north. The teleconnections appear to be moving neutral, which would help to push the front through and possibly cause the low to spin up the coast; however, it is not the mostly likely solution right now. Right conditions must be present to cause the storm to wrap itself up like that, so more time will be needed to accurately determine what will happen with the storm. It is amazing to be talking about this possible solution at this point of the winter. Maybe this is a good omen of what is to come. For the past few years, we have had really cold air modeled only to be replaced by warm air. This will be interesting to watch; however, it does appear cold air will be making a run at the southeast sometime next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 TWC already talking about it. Might be fantasy for places outside of the mountains lol. The NE is a different story.. That is the kiss of death!! It's not an impossibility, but I give it a 10% chance of NC seeing snow. Waycross 0.00000000001/2 chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I néed to move to Roxboro! They look to get a few inches with a few of the current model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Remarkable agreement all the way out to 180hrs between the operational 00z ECMWF and GFS at 500mb. The 06z GFS did speed up the timing a bit, but also dug the trough a little farther south which would be a substantial hit for a lot of NC. A look at the individual 06z GFS ensemble members reveal that a good number now have a fairly sharp trough in roughly the same position as the operational run at 180hrs, just not as intense. For now, it does seem safe to say with some confidence that the coldest temperatures of the season are coming next week, and I'd have to argue that the chances for at least a few flakes in the air in northern NC and all of VA are slowly rising as well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 OK, saw this from Matthew East on facebook. We need to get him and Alan Huffman back on here ASAP! I told you winter was back on. It's on like Donkey Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12Z solutions will be north and west. Book it. The one thing I like so far that is real, is that the warm-ups keep getting pushed back or replaced by patterns that produce normal or below normal temps. The first warm-up was seen in late October to commence in early November. Then, around of the first of the month, it was supposed to warm up around mid-month. Now, it looks like that is off. Maybe late November/early December now? Anyway, no torches yet. Aleution ridging has been pretty persistent of late. The GOA vortex this year hasn't been a stationary feature either. It seems to form and migrate to the SW. That keeps repeating in the modeling. Anyway, it certainly looks like a different pattern than the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I am here Brick. Always will be for interesting weather in our region. Obviously climo argues very strongly against any type of widespread significant wintry weather in mid-November for NC. Greatest snowfall for RDU on record in November is 3.6 incehs on Nov 20th 1914. We did get 2.2 inches of snow on Nov 19th, 2000. And we had measurable snow of 0.4 inches on Nov 21st 2008. It is certainly rare. This pattern would be an odd one to produce a wintry event especially outside the normal climo time with a very +AO/+NAO. The s/w of note looks to move into Alaska tomorrow, so we should see a bit more stability in the modeling solutions, I would think in 24-48 hours. With the setup not ideal synoptically (we depend a lot on timing) and this being mid November, the odds are heavily against something. Keep in mind this is still 6 days out so we have plenty of time for wild model swings. However, the fact tha the op GFS and ECMWF and a fair number of their ens members show it, does raise the alert a bit. It is fun to see and worth following, but dont get too excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DT: Wxrisk.com HOLY CRAP! WOW http://t.co/Nk9vUnOnkm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 So, the GFS is showing it, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I told you winter was back on. It's on like Donkey Kong. Wait, when did you tell us winter was back on? I thought you canceled winter already? So, the GFS is showing it, too? As I posted above, the GFS, the Euro, and the DGEX (I know, right?) have all shown this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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