November 2013 pattern and discussion

[Wow]

While it looks like a mean western trough is in the works next week,  I think we don't be torched because heights appear to be lowering over the Atlantic and holding a CAD sig in place for most of the duration.  

[Lindsaywx]

Lr looks like poo after looking so good a week ago

[DaculaWeather]

Lr looks like poo after looking so good a week ago

Just a reload... winter will return.

[tnweathernut]

It's weather, and it changes daily.  I am not sold that the trough sits in the west with a -EPO.  It should slide east and put us back in the colder weather after a brief attempt to warm toward, or just above normal.  Besides, it's only early December we are taking here.  There is still a LOT to be optimistic about (as long as you don't look at the teleconnectors every day, lol)

[POWERSTROKE]

Just a reload... winter will return.

Even Robert says its short lived, winter coming back real soon as did another famous paid site

[Vorticity]

FWIW: Just released: According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The brutally cold early winter weather across the eastern US has been the result of a seemingly endless supply of Arctic air masses plowing southeastward across Canada. This pattern has been driven by strong and persistent atmospheric ridging across the North Pacific. As long as this ridging continues, the risk of widespread cold temperatures will continue. However, any weakening or displacement of this ridging will lead to significantly warmer risks across the US due to the expected strength of the polar vortex. There are several reasons why we expect a stronger-than-normal polar vortex this winter, including a weaker-than-normal Siberian high, a recent spike in solar activity, and the continuation of very strong westerly winds in the equatorial stratosphere. This strong polar vortex should generally confine the cold air to northern latitudes, and should allow much of the South to bask in a mild winter.”

[NCCatawba]

FWIW: Just released: According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “The brutally cold early winter weather across the eastern US has been the result of a seemingly endless supply of Arctic air masses plowing southeastward across Canada. This pattern has been driven by strong and persistent atmospheric ridging across the North Pacific. As long as this ridging continues, the risk of widespread cold temperatures will continue. However, any weakening or displacement of this ridging will lead to significantly warmer risks across the US due to the expected strength of the polar vortex. There are several reasons why we expect a stronger-than-normal polar vortex this winter, including a weaker-than-normal Siberian high, a recent spike in solar activity, and the continuation of very strong westerly winds in the equatorial stratosphere. This strong polar vortex should generally confine the cold air to northern latitudes, and should allow much of the South to bask in a mild winter.”

 

Very interesting. I will take a mild winter over a hot winter like last time. If the current pattern of arctic air can't bring a good winter storm maybe a slightly mild pattern can during the heart of winter.

[Lindsaywx]

How was the 12z euro for the extended??

Southeast ridge and western trough?

[tnweathernut]

Briefly pops a southeast ridge, but then goes to a look of cold (centered west) from west coast to east coast, except for the deep south.

 

Blocking galore over the top!

[tarheelwx]

Sounds like the upper south could be prime.

TW

[franklin NCwx]

Briefly pops a southeast ridge, but then goes to a look of cold (centered west) from west coast to east coast, except for the deep south.

Blocking galore over the top!

it looks to drive more the cold into the northern plains instead of out west. compared to its previous runs

[Cold Rain]

With the PV located where it is, we would be on the warm side of any storms.  Defintely not a torchy look.  But not a snowy one either.

 

12z Euro, Day 10:

 

 

[Wow]

I'm not going to read much into the LR forecasts. They've been rather poor as of late. I do like the look of the blocking overhead shown by the Euro however.

 

[tnweathernut]

Uh, yeah.  I will take my chances if we can get blocking over the top like this to materialize.

[BNAwx]

I've seen these type patterns set up before and the cold usually bleeds east as time goes by.  Wouldn't surprise me to see a sharp gradient type pattern set up somewhere in the midsouth/southeast with overrunning wintry precip if this pattern develops.  Hopefully any southeast ridge will be muted as time goes by.  Ridging that has been modeled ahead of time has had a hard time verifying this year.

[Brandonjva]

@RyanMaue: Yeah, it's a 10-day forecast (from the best ensemble model), but holy cow. http://t.co/OHyxFy8LaE

[Lindsaywx]

How was the euro last night? Please tell me it did not have a west coast trough

[Cold Rain]

How was the euro last night? Please tell me it did not have a west coast trough

If there hasn't already been a map posted by now, you can probably assume it was bad.

I haven't looked yet, but I will shortly and will post in the December thread.

[POWERSTROKE]

Robert has a great write up on his paid site about December

[Cold Rain]

If there hasn't already been a map posted by now, you can probably assume it was bad.

I haven't looked yet, but I will shortly and will post in the December thread.

 

I was wrong...it wasn't too bad at all.

[Wow]

I know the 6z GFS finally shows an actual Greenland block in place in the LR.  It's a start!

[Wow]

Ah, just saw the 0z Euro..  love the strong blocking over Canada. That's a west based -NAO.

 

[SnowNiner]

Ah, just saw the 0z Euro..  love the strong blocking over Canada. That's a west based -NAO.

 

 

Question, would that be a cold look in the SE?  It looks like we're still in the higher anomalies event though the midwest looks really cold.  I'm assuming too that's a split polar vortex that gets stuck. 

[Wow]

Question, would that be a cold look in the SE?  It looks like we're still in the higher anomalies event though the midwest looks really cold.  I'm assuming too that's a split polar vortex that gets stuck. 

 

Based on the movement it looks to phase into the 50/50 low beyond this time frame which will crash the ht field over the east while the western ridge rebuilds at the mean trough axis moves east of Hawaii (teleconnects to a western ridge). The SE would be growing colder after this time frame.

[Cold Rain]

Question, would that be a cold look in the SE? It looks like we're still in the higher anomalies event though the midwest looks really cold. I'm assuming too that's a split polar vortex that gets stuck.

Verbatim, that look puts the storm track through the area. Fortunately, IF (and that's a big IF), that depiction becomes reality, it will not be a stationary pattern. The cold should spread eastward with time. An eastward adjustment of the PV, assuming all else stays the same, would place the storm track south and east of us, which is a much more favorable location.

One thing that is a bit of a negative is that with the PV in that area, we will have a difficult time getting a high pressure of favorable strength, location, and track, which is (although not always necessary) one of the things I look for when looking for a major SE winter storm. We'd need some confluence in the NE and/or a 50/50 low to help out in that regard.

Edit: Looking again at Wow's image, it looks like there is a 50/50, so that's good.

[tnweathernut]

Ah, just saw the 0z Euro..  love the strong blocking over Canada. That's a west based -NAO.

 

Baffin Island blocking FTW -  that is a "great" setup for midsouth/southeast snow and ice if it comes to fruition!

[Carvers Gap]

There is a hint of a southwest flow coming under the trough/cold air.  Could it be a southeast ridge?  Don't know.  If it is far enough east, could be a transport system for storms and a positive.  If it is far enough west, Memphis is in business.  Personally, the 12z GFS looks makes me a bit nervous. 

[POWERSTROKE]

Based on the movement it looks to phase into the 50/50 low beyond this time frame which will crash the ht field over the east while the western ridge rebuilds at the mean trough axis moves east of Hawaii (teleconnects to a western ridge). The SE would be growing colder after this time frame.

falls in line with wxsouth thoughts

[Wow]

GFS does it by 264 on the 18z run tonight.  The PV rolls across, and pushes the arctic boundary down into the SE, creating a great overrunning event.  +PNA builds in. -NAO this time!