Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 and here comes the next threat. Euro was also playing around with this one as well around D10 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Ever since the blizzard I've felt I was destined to see another. Do something great....save a grizzly from the drifts, herd lost seals to safety. Watch GT beat N. C. again for the ACC title on a 5 inch b/w running on a car battery. But lordy it's proven difficult to repeat, lol. Just getting one on the maps is a huge feat. But it will feed my dreams, lol. Could you show us a picture? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro still playing with this one... 1047 high over another cutoff UL in the STJ. Verbatim, too warm for snow but looks icy with the CAD in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Yep. Icy indeed! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Blocky pattern setting up by D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 No torch in the LR, still. Looks like the potential is there to keep an active southern stream, with a north to south temp gradient pattern across the country. The AO looks to rise and fall again but remain in the positive phase. The NAO looks to remain around neutral and the PNA is forecast to go somewhat negative in the extended. It looks like the mean trough is trying to set up more in the central part of the country. If that is the case, then we'd be on the mild side of most storms. Either way, the exact LR depiction is difficult to determine and shifts daily, as do the index forecasts. I'd like to see a substantial and consistent move toward blocking, but that hasn't happened yet. Hopefully, that will show up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Should we be concerned that after thanksgiving the rest of the run struggles to go below zero at 850 here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Should we be concerned that after thanksgiving the rest of the run struggles to go below zero at 850 here? I wouldn't worry too much about it at this point. The models have fluctuated several times so far this season between several runs of brutally cold in the LR and several runs of normal -- warm-ups and cool-downs. If we start seeing troughing in the west consistently and a SE ridge, then I'd be more concerned. Also, now that we're moving into winter and not really seeing any reliable hints at any blocking developing, that is a concern if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The last few runs of the gfs have the cold in the mid-long range in the west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The last few runs of the gfs have the cold in the mid-long range in the west.... Wouldn't be at all concerned with that at this time. It still shows cold air...the details, with regard to placement, will change a lot in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Wouldn't be at all concerned with that at this time. It still shows cold air...the details, with regard to placement, will change a lot in the next week.Ensemble runs today would indicate the cold staying more east. Day 15: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f360_ussm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Gfs looks warm 1st week of December. Brutal cold is way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Torch city on the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Torch city on the 12z gfs The model keeps getting warmer and warmer. Looks like we head into December with a +AO -PNA and neutral to weakly positive NAO. It's possible though things could flip back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 cold returns mid December after brief warm-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The model keeps getting warmer and warmer. Looks like we head into December with a +AO -PNA and neutral to weakly positive NAO. It's possible though things could flip back the other way. Models can't get nothing right wouldn't be surprised if the warmer and warmer just ended up being averager and averager. I'm freezing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Torch city on the 12z gfs Negative Ghost Rider. Not a cold pattern, but certainly not a torchy one. SE ridge flexes a little bit and we get a -PNA, but Canada is still very, very cold. We get a couple of mild days in front of a couple of Lakes cutters, but cool air comes in behind and you get HP scooting across the northern tier, providing some lower level cold. It's certainly not the best H5 pattern, but certainly not a blowtorch. Winter weather threats are few and far between, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ensembles do not support a torch and put the trough in the central us before moving it east. Looks more like a relax reload pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ensembles continue a general -EPO and +AO/NAO setup in the LR. Still below avg heights over the central/eastern US so the Pacific is really doing the dirty work here. We've been threats of blocking encroach into the arctic/Greenland regions on the models but so far none have held on to really force a pattern change there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The model keeps getting warmer and warmer. Looks like we head into December with a +AO -PNA and neutral to weakly positive NAO. It's possible though things could flip back the other way. Favorable pattern for a severe setup if we get a trough ejecting out of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I believe with the continued strong HP's the threat of a major region wide ice storm is pretty high this year. Without blocking I believe we will struggle to get an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 How did the end of the euro look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 How did the end of the euro look Bad...unless you like Lakes cutters, -PNAs, +NAOs, and a mild SE ridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 How did the end of the euro look Great if you want an arctic invasion and snowstorm.................................... in Seattle, lol. Looks transitory to me though, trough should swing east and not hang out there for weeks on end. Atlantic continues to look like poo poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Bad...unless you like Lakes cutters, -PNAs, +NAOs, and a mild SE ridge: Like it or not, we've gone from a close to perfect ridge axis running up the W. Canada coast to one substantially off the west coast. That's the current trend for the mid-longer range. Can it change or evolve to more of a full U.S. trough, yes....but that's where we are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It seems whatever can go wrong will. There's always a hitch in the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Like it or not, we've gone from a close to perfect ridge axis running up the W. Canada coast to one substantially off the west coast. That's the current trend for the mid-longer range. Can it change or evolve to more of a full U.S. trough, yes....but that's where we are right now. Hopefully, it will not become a permanent or semipermanent pattern. If we endure a two or three week period of normal or slightly above, followed by a two or three week colder pattern this winter, I'd take that, especially after the last two. Hopefully, the period around Christmas will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The euro ensembles have a nice cold shot after day 10. The cold air tha pools over southern canada eventually slides into the east coast. Looks like a nice setup for some storms the first week of December followed by a cold period. I like the persistent arctic high's we've been seeing so far this fall. I think there is a very high chance of an ice situation this winter with these setups being so persistent. That is ignoring the situation tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Need the +PNA to return in the day 10+ range, IF we get lucky and it does you guys & myself here in Philly could get some nice gradient snowstorms, maybe a few snow/ice to rain types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Indices not looking good for the extended: PNA - Looks to stay just below negative AO - Looks to go positive NAO - Looks to go positive *and these values are going this way now. After a cold Thanksgiving and we may be in an extended warm spell. I think the 6z GFS showed the best depiction of todays indices. I'm really hoping the cold November - warm winter thing is not real. I know it's much deeper than that, but I do have a lot of memories of that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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