griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z GFS Ensemble Mean in the 9+ day range runs the ridge axis right up the W Canada coast, into E Alaska, and north of Alaska. That's an ideal location for getting cold air into the U.S. east of the Rockies. We'll have to see if it is right...the 12z Euro and Euro Ensemble are farther west with the ridge axis, opening the door for the cold air to be centered more to our west...but the GEFS is pretty much ideal on the Pacific side if you want cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Here are the associated surface temperature anomalies for the period Dec 2 - Dec 7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 this: 14 individual days (at RDU) out of the total 900 days of November in the past 30 years Cool thanks. I figured that might be what he was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 EURO shows a nice southern/M.A threat Day 9-10, cold air no issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z GFS Ensemble Mean in the 9+ day range runs the ridge axis right up the W Canada coast, into E Alaska, and north of Alaska. That's an ideal location for getting cold air into the U.S. east of the Rockies. We'll have to see if it is right...the 12z Euro and Euro Ensemble are farther west with the ridge axis, opening the door for the cold air to be centered more to our west...but the GEFS is pretty much ideal on the Pacific side if you want cold. ] Looks like no real blocking on the Atlantic side, which would imply a continued progressive storm track. Still, miles better than we have had in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Not one thing about the 0z GFS or Euro looks warm in the LR. Pacific continues to look good. Snowpack in Canada continues to build and plenty of strong highs continue to form. The Atlantic continues to look progressive, unfortunately, with no signs of a west-based -NAO. But, storm chances continue, and with plenty of cold nearby, the likelihood of a well-timed system, mixing with cold air is pretty good, IMO. I haven't had time to look at the index prongs or the CFS today, so if someone wants to take that and run with it, feel free. Right now, it's time to take the little man to the Raleigh Christmas parade....after getting the day started off right at Bojangle's, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Not one thing about the 0z GFS or Euro looks warm in the LR. Pacific continues to look good. Snowpack in Canada continues to build and plenty of strong highs continue to form. The Atlantic continues to look progressive, unfortunately, with no signs of a west-based -NAO. But, storm chances continue, and with plenty of cold nearby, the likelihood of a well-timed system, mixing with cold air is pretty good, IMO. I haven't had time to look at the index prongs or the CFS today, so if someone wants to take that and run with it, feel free. Right now, it's time to take the little man to the Raleigh Christmas parade....after getting the day started off right at Bojangle's, of course. I agree, it looks plenty cold enough for us to have some real chances the next couple of weeks. Man if this winter continues like the last couple of weeks we're going to get model tracking fatigue. Taking a break from the Raleigh Christmas parade this year. Will definitely make the Wake Forest parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like Robert was right with the models underplaying the cold in the past few days. Forecast high for tomorrow is now 36. On the LR, it's probably as good as you can ask for without any NAO blocking. Feels like a mirror to last year. At that time, we had a consistent -AO/NAO with a terrible pacific pattern. Pacific won. Now we have a consistent +AO/NAO and a great pacific. So far, pacific is winning again. Hopefully, the QBO/solar flux correlation sinks in and initiates some SSW over the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I agree, it looks plenty cold enough for us to have some real chances the next couple of weeks. Man if this winter continues like the last couple of weeks we're going to get model tracking fatigue. Taking a break from the Raleigh Christmas parade this year. Will definitely make the Wake Forest parade. Yeah, that's why I've been trying to pace myself with this storm...not staying up late, not looking at things like the DGEX, Navgem, or the NAM. I need to work into those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like Robert was right with the models underplaying the cold in the past few days. Forecast high for tomorrow is now 36. On the LR, it's probably as good as you can ask for without any NAO blocking. Feels like a mirror to last year. At that time, we had a consistent -AO/NAO with a terrible pacific pattern. Pacific won. Now we have a consistent +AO/NAO and a great pacific. So far, pacific is winning again. Hopefully, the QBO/solar flux correlation sinks in and initiates some SSW over the pole. Just dropped a little for me as well. Cold period coming up: Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. North wind 6 to 11 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 20. Light northwest wind. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Calm wind. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Tuesday Rain, mainly after 10am. High near 44. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Tuesday Night Rain. Low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Wednesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thanksgiving Day Sunny, with a high near 42. Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 23. Friday Sunny, with a high near 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Donny S. with another single up the middle in the main thread. "2. For the 3rd out of the last 4 days, the partial teleconnection analogs suggest cold in a large part of the East for December. The look on that map is fairly similar to the latest CFSv2 forecast for December." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like Robert was right with the models underplaying the cold in the past few days. Forecast high for tomorrow is now 36. On the LR, it's probably as good as you can ask for without any NAO blocking. Feels like a mirror to last year. At that time, we had a consistent -AO/NAO with a terrible pacific pattern. Pacific won. Now we have a consistent +AO/NAO and a great pacific. So far, pacific is winning again. Hopefully, the QBO/solar flux correlation sinks in and initiates some SSW over the pole. Ya WOW he has been steadfast about the cold air this week and not wavering at all. He has been pretty spot on about this cold shot coming down the pike. Donny S. with another single up the middle in the main thread. "2. For the 3rd out of the last 4 days, the partial teleconnection analogs suggest cold in a large part of the East for December. The look on that map is fairly similar to the latest CFSv2 forecast for December." CR I look back at the beginning of November and was reading a lot about how warm we were going to be then I was reading about how December was going to be very mild. We have some great Mets on the board but I think a few have seen a curve ball by the weather pattern this month. We are averaging below normal for this month and much below after this next week. Also know December looks very good to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 So when the last time we had so much cold in Nov with a 1050mb HP in the northern plains? I honestly do not remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I don't remember decent snow or ice chances before Dec 1. However, most really cold Decembers I remember flipped mild by sometime in early January. Hopefully we can run the cold through March 1. TW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z GFS again advertising big time cold air in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z GFS again advertising big time cold air in the LR. Burger one thing I have been noticing is that even though it has been the LR the GFS has been hinting at some big time cold in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yeah, that's why I've been trying to pace myself with this storm...not staying up late, not looking at things like the DGEX, Navgem, or the NAM. I need to work into those things. You, sir, have responsibilities now. You need to get in some kind of shape. Late Dec. will be here post haste, and that's your wheel house. Get a hold of yourself, man!! These glancing blows of cold should turn to direct hits soon, and we'll need you fully focused. Think of the little children! Already we have potential with out blocking, glancing cold, and retreating cad...soon we'll see well placed highs, and deep gulf lows phasing, and you'll be sleeping? Fie, sir, fie! Your friend, Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That's highs in the mid 20s, lows in the low teens or upper single digits kind of cold here. That would be unheard of for even early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 How did the euro look long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 How did the euro look long range Quite different from yesterday (in the Pacific). Troughing in the gulf of Alaska and no hint of a -NAO. Slight west coast ridging/east coast troughing and there is a cutoff in the southwest. Pretty frigid all across Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 You, sir, have responsibilities now. You need to get in some kind of shape. Late Dec. will be here post haste, and that's your wheel house. Get a hold of yourself, man!! These glancing blows of cold should turn to direct hits soon, and we'll need you fully focused. Think of the little children! Already we have potential with out blocking, glancing cold, and retreating cad...soon we'll see well placed highs, and deep gulf lows phasing, and you'll be sleeping? Fie, sir, fie! Your friend, Tony I will be ready, sir. Don't you worry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z GFS Ensemble Mean still looks cold in mid-long range with eastern trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC248 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013...SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OFWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS....STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CANADIAN HIGHPRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY MORNINGTO PRODUCE SUB ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILLBOTTOM OUT NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH WIDESPREAD NEAR ZEROVALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Northern Hemisphere snow cover looking good: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Northern Hemisphere snow cover looking good: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif That's absolutely fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Talk about early full coverage! Nice . Northern Hemisphere snow cover looking good:http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Northern Hemisphere snow cover looking good: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 2013 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Surprised not much mention of it but the EURO for 2nd run in a row showed a Mid-Atlantic/Upper SE snowstorm threat in the LR. It all depends if the energy in the southwest doesn't come out. Its a Miller B type storm showing up on the models. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GEFS members.. a good number of them are still showing some solid NAO blocking setting up in the LR. They pulled back for a couple of days on the severity but now are back at bringing it in in the first days of December... including these beauties By the way that last one there develops into a huge triple phased event. That's what North American blocking can do for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I think the Thanksgiving system is just a taste of bigger and better things to come this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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