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November 2013 pattern and discussion

WxJordan

By WxJordan,
in Southeastern States

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Can we not get the cold to come in just ahead of the storm? I know we're in Nov. but why is it so hard every year to get the cold in just ahead of the storm? :axe:

The southern stream system needs to eject slower from the SW. The cold is always slow getting in. The run yesterday had the southern upper level system closed off longer and slower. Not so today. It has got to slow down pretty significantly...otherwise, no dice.

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KChuck

KChuck

Posted
Posted

Just started back onto the board earlier this week as winter approaches. Prior only looked during major tornadic type storms, Here's to a good snowy winter for the Triad NC. I thought snow cover was greater in northern US and Canada but saw we're a bit behind. Reviewed snow cover maps for today's date back to 2003. Found minimal snow cover from 03 thru 09. 10 and 11 exploded as far as cover related to prior years, it retreated in 12, and 13 is just shy of the 10-11 years but maybe a bit more extensive as far as snow cover temps. Does it mean anything? I know it helps to have cover up north to keep air masses from moderating. I posted thumbnails of snow pack temps for the 11 years side by side for comparison at my Google site ussnowcover.

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

Gfs is implying now that much of the upstate and mountains get only .50 of precip at most out of this system. Yet another wet looking system that dries up for us as we close in on it. The latest drought maps show D0 back over much of the area and if The NOAA long range forecast is right it just gets worse.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised this board isn't lit up.

 

NOLA to Norfolk looks pretty snowy on the 12z Euro.

 

My Nashville folk are disappointed. However, I'll be in Danville VA by late Tuesday night, so I say bring it.

 

 

It's really only the euro showing this and it's track record over the last few years has been pretty bad with false alarms.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH is upping the wording on next weeks potential storm. Still not forecasting a lot of wintery precip but adding a lot of IFs and THENs..

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

...A PROLONGED COLD PERIOD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A STORMY PERIOD

LATE TUESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE FROM THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS/EC EFS ARE FAIRLY

SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT

MOVES FROM TEXAS ON EARLY TUESDAY...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY

AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWS A

WEAK SURFACE LOW AROUND 1006 MB DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO AROUND 19Z TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENING TO AROUND 998 MB

BY 18Z WED WHEN IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS. THE GFS IS A

LITTLE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST THAN THEN EC WHICH

CLOSES OFF THE TROUGH AT 500MB AND IS ACCORDINGLY A LITTLE SLOWER

WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TOUGH AXIS AND THE SFC LOW.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS EASES OFF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY SHOULD START OFF COLD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE

DEW POINTS SHOULD START OFF IN THE TEENS AS THE DEPARTING HIGH

PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPOSITS A RESIDUAL DRY AIR MASS IN OUR REGION.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS

IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT DRIVES GULF AND ATLANTIC

MOISTURE OVER THE STABLE AIRMASS. AN IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT

IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND RESULT

IN A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A

PROMINENT WARM NOSE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THE

PRECIPITATION GENERATION MECHANISMS SO THAT COMBINED WITH THE

RETREATING HIGH SHOULD PRECLUDE SNOW AT THE ONSET. BUT GIVEN THE LOW

DEW POINTS LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A NUISANCE VARIETY

OF RAIN/ICING AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND

NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN THE TRIAD BUT WILL

LIKELY MAKE IT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST AS AN

INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT WILL HOLD NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT

COULD POTENTIALLY BE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF

UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY

NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE

EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL

DETERMINE WHICH LOCATIONS GET THE MOST PRECIP AND HOW THE

TEMPERATURE PATTERN SET UP. AT THIS POINT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL

PLAIN. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND DIABATIC COOLING LOCKS IN

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE MID

30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON

WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE...THE

LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRODUCED BY THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD

EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE

UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT MAY BE CLOSED OFF

OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN OPEN UP AS THE TROUGH

BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO THE

PRECIPITATION MAY REDEVELOP/FILL IN/PERSIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. TRYING TO PIN POINT

MESOSCALE DETAILS OUT 120 HOURS IS FOOLHARDY BUT THIS TYPE OF

PATTERN CAN RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO

WET SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS. IF BANDED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND IF THE

TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EVENING...THE IMPACT

COULD BE GREATER. SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH THE GREATEST

THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED

LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY

SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE LOWER

50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING

WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING BELOW FREEZING NOT TOO LONG AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

HPC GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT INDICATES PRECIPITATION

TOTALS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2

INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST FRIDAY AS A

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE

OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON

FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 15 TO 20

DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40-45 WITH LOWS OF

25-30. -BLAES

&&

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

Don S finally coming around to the possibility of a cold December. From his post in the gen wx disco forum.

 

3. Historical experience for years with the kind of strong cold shots that occurred in late November and is modeled for the start of December have typically seen the affected region wind up colder than normal in December.

 

All said, IMO, odds have shifted toward a colder December in large parts of the East, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes region (historical experience + increasing tendency for cold on the partial teleconnection cases). Early month cold anomalies may be difficult to completely erase if or when a pattern shift to milder takes place.

 

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Watching WRAL tonight and Greg Fishel said only 14 times in the last 30 years has the high in November been below 40. Looks like we could have it happen again this Sunday. I wonder how those winters were those other 14 times after that happened in November.

That's almost a 50% occurrence. Hardly newsworthy or even an "only" and certainly not going to be statistically significant.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

That's almost a 50% occurrence. Hardly newsworthy or even an "only" and certainly not going to be statistically significant.

Is he saying 14 out of the last 30 Novembers? Or is it 14 days total out the last 900 opportunities for the month of November? Either way, highs not getting out of the 30s in November is pretty impressive in my book. And many locations may have highs only in the 30s multiple times before this year is out. Not bad for Fall.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Is he saying 14 out of the last 30 Novembers? Or is it 14 days total out the last 900 opportunities for the month of November? Either way, highs not getting out of the 30s in November is pretty impressive in my book. And many locations may have highs only in the 30s multiple times before this year is out. Not bad for Fall.

Can't tell from Brick's post. Either way I don't think it has a predictive value.

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JWXnc

JWXnc

Posted
Posted

Is he saying 14 out of the last 30 Novembers? Or is it 14 days total out the last 900 opportunities for the month of November? Either way, highs not getting out of the 30s in November is pretty impressive in my book. And many locations may have highs only in the 30s multiple times before this year is out. Not bad for Fall.

 

this: 14 individual days (at RDU) out of the total 900 days of November in the past 30 years

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