November 2013 pattern and discussion

[POWERSTROKE]

sounds like nothing much to this storm.  Its one of those close calls but sounds like a 33 and rain situation.  Every time we start a thread this far out it never verifies.  I for one would wait until Sunday.  Sounds like we may see some snow at the end but that's about it except Mountains.

[FLweather]

I've noticed this the last few runs of(0z,18,12). I also know comparing the GFS to Nam is like comparing Apples and Oranges.... But if the Nam has a better handling on the setup prior to the moisture moving in then cold should not be a problem. Really some major differences from the GFS.

 

Nam Below

 

 

GFS

 

[Cold Rain]

I think this was brought up a few pages back... But do we need a thread for next week? Or should we just ride the November main thread out until the end of the month?

Some of the long range pattern disco is getting a little lost.

Just a thought..

Yes. Do it. Do it. Start it man!

[burgertime]

Yes. Do it. Do it. Start it man!

 

I second that. Fire it up Mark!

[Cold Rain]

Several things look better than they did yesterday regarding the LR.  Both the AO and NAO are now forecast to fall to just a bit below neutral, followed by a rise, followed by another decline.  The PNA is forecast to remain near neutral.  The CFSv2 has flipped again and now shows a colder December.  Weeks 1-3 are below normal, temp-wise, with week 4 showing near to slightly above normal (a flip from the utter torch it was showing yesterday).  Precipitation looks to remain near to above normal in the SE over the next 4 weeks.  The MJO still offers no direction, as most guidance keeps it in or near the COD.  Interestingly, the NCEP suite shows it emerging in Phase 8 and takes it into Phase 1, which are favorable phases for cold in the east.

 

I haven't looked at the Ensembles, and the OP Euro at 240, while probably meaningless, didn't look great (didn't look terrible either).  The pattern of strong Highs dropping in from the north still continues, meaning we have sharp cool-downs, followed by warm-ups to near or slightly above average.  The southern stream looks to remain active and there is no real evidence of any torching anywhere in the near future.  All good news, I guess.

 

I haven't looked at ENSO, so if anyone has any thoughts as to the latest temp trends in Nino 3.4, please chime in.  How do the SOI numbers look?  It'll also be interesting to see where November's QBO numbers come in at...hopefully, a substantial drop is in the cards.

 

Anyway, please join me in welcoming the Polar Vortex to the CONUS:

[buckeyefan1]

Several things look better than they did yesterday regarding the LR.  Both the AO and NAO are now forecast to fall to just a bit below neutral, followed by a rise, followed by another decline.  The PNA is forecast to remain near neutral.  The CFSv2 has flipped again and now shows a colder December.  Weeks 1-3 are below normal, temp-wise, with week 4 showing near to slightly above normal (a flip from the utter torch it was showing yesterday).  Precipitation looks to remain near to above normal in the SE over the next 4 weeks.  The MJO still offers no direction, as most guidance keeps it in or near the COD.  Interestingly, the NCEP suite shows it emerging in Phase 8 and takes it into Phase 1, which are favorable phases for cold in the east.

 

I haven't looked at the Ensembles, and the OP Euro at 240, while probably meaningless, didn't look great (didn't look terrible either).  The pattern of strong Highs dropping in from the north still continues, meaning we have sharp cool-downs, followed by warm-ups to near or slightly above average.  The southern stream looks to remain active and there is no real evidence of any torching anywhere in the near future.  All good news, I guess.

 

I haven't looked at ENSO, so if anyone has any thoughts as to the latest temp trends in Nino 3.4, please chime in.  How do the SOI numbers look?  It'll also be interesting to see where Novembers QBO numbers come in at...hopefully, a substantial drop is in the cards.

 

Anyway, please join me in welcoming the Polar Vortex to the CONUS:

Welcome to December  I will gladly take the up and down ride that is being shown in the long term.  

[Brick Tamland]

LOL.....DownEast you beat me to it. I will say it looks like RAH is leaving the door open for something "funny" to occur; but they are staying with the predominantly rain forecast(which seems reasonable).

 

Yes, looks like we will have to keep an eye out for Tuesday. Sounds like it is all about the timing. Even if it is not a lot of snow, it would still be nice to see some right before the kick off to the Christmas season.

[Cold Rain]

Welcome to December I will gladly take the up and down ride that is being shown in the long term.

You bet, especially given where we've been the last couple of winters. The fact that we're even talking about the possibility of snow (for the second time) before Thanksgiving is remarkable.

Oh, and Don Sutherland's update in the main forum should put a smile on people's faces. And if it doesn't, allow me:

[buckeyefan1]

You bet, especially given where we've been the last couple of winters. The fact that we're even talking about the possibility of snow (for the second time) before Thanksgiving is remarkable.

Oh, and Don Sutherland's update in the main forum should put a smile on people's faces. And if it doesn't, allow me:

I love it when he talks like that  

[griteater]

I haven't looked at ENSO, so if anyone has any thoughts as to the latest temp trends in Nino 3.4, please chime in.  How do the SOI numbers look?  It'll also be interesting to see where November's QBO numbers come in at...hopefully, a substantial drop is in the cards.

 

Latest weekly Nino 3.4 SST is 0.0...dead solid neutral.  Both 30 day and 90 day SOI are also right around 0.  For the QBO, the easterlies (-QBO) have descended to around 20mb.  QBO at 30mb looks to flip from weakly positive to weakly negative in the Jan-Feb timeframe (30mb is the level that most folks refer to when talking about it)...no surprises with the QBO at this point.  There have been some recent solar spikes, but those have settled down a bit.

[Cold Rain]

Latest weekly Nino 3.4 SST is 0.0...dead solid neutral. Both 30 day and 90 day SOI are also right around 0. For the QBO, the easterlies (-QBO) have descended to around 20mb. QBO at 30mb looks to flip from weakly positive to weakly negative in the Jan-Feb timeframe (30mb is the level that most folks refer to when talking about it)...no surprises with the QBO at this point. There have been some recent solar spikes, but those have settled down a bit.

Thank you sir! Good info.

[DopplerWx]

Thank you sir! Good info.

make the event thread before the 12z runs for good mojo, you killed it with the 2010 xmas storm so just bring back some of that for the new thread.

[Bevo]

You bet, especially given where we've been the last couple of winters. The fact that we're even talking about the possibility of snow (for the second time) before Thanksgiving is remarkable.

Oh, and Don Sutherland's update in the main forum should put a smile on people's faces. And if it doesn't, allow me:

 

Can you link to that discussion? I know it's a silly request, but there you go.

[SnowNiner]

You bet, especially given where we've been the last couple of winters. The fact that we're even talking about the possibility of snow (for the second time) before Thanksgiving is remarkable.

Oh, and Don Sutherland's update in the main forum should put a smile on people's faces. And if it doesn't, allow me:

 

We broke him......excellent!

 

That actually gives me a lot more confidence going into December.  Him pushing warm had me nervous seeing he's been pretty much dead on the last few years.  There is some rumbling that the first week of December may be ripe for a storm, but from what I understand it's northern stream, so probably not our cup of tea.  I think much hangs on the southern stream keeping active like it is now if we actually want snow.  Northern stream storms with no blocking are going to the lakes. 

[Cold Rain]

Can you link to that discussion? I know it's a silly request, but there you go.

www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/page-4

Here you go. I don't know how to link to a specific post from Blackberry, but hopefully this will work.

[Cold Rain]

make the event thread before the 12z runs for good mojo, you killed it with the 2010 xmas storm so just bring back some of that for the new thread.

I think Mark's got this one. With that December storm, that was just always going to be right. This one...nassomuch. I don't discount the possibility of some flakes, but the setup is just not to my liking for a big deal for a lot of the SE folks....doesn't mean it can't change some, though.

[Bevo]

www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/page-4

Here you go. I don't know how to link to a specific post from Blackberry, but hopefully this will work.

 

Got it. Thanks brother. I don't often wade through the ocean of posts over there.

[BullCityWx]

On the 0z Euro, most of NC gets at least an inch except close to the ocean and the far SW part. There's two maximums on the map. One that's near RDU at 3-4" and a broader 2-3" maximum that goes along 77 from Statesville down to about Rock Hill.

[franklin NCwx]

 

Too bad I can't post the long range euro and gfs ensembles. Pretty good run for the weenies. Big epo ridge stays in place along with a ridge trying to punch through Greenland and connect to the epo ridge.

[burgertime]

Man the GFS isn't looking bad. Looks like the low is tracking south and not spinning up that secondary low as far north. Time will tell. 

[griteater]

Man the GFS isn't looking bad. Looks like the low is tracking south and not spinning up that secondary low as far north. Time will tell. 

Yep, sfc and upper low are tracking a bit further south, looks more like the 18z yesterday so far

[burgertime]

Yep, sfc and upper low are tracking a bit further south, looks more like the 18z yesterday so far

 

Even further south with our second low coming in than 18z with what looks like more cold air to work with. If that low can gain some traction working east this could get interesting. 

[DopplerWx]

looks like it is gonna be a good run, slower this time. thru 114

[Disc]

Cold never really catches up with the precip. thru 126.

[burgertime]

looks like it is gonna be a good run, slower this time. thru 114

 

It's looking shaky now for WNC but RDU might cash in on this run.  Out to 129 that low is popping just south of CAE with cold air incoming. @132 there is not much moisture to work with in NC. Looks like FAY *might* be a sloppy mix. 

[burgertime]

Cold never really catches up with the precip. thru 126.

 

Yep @135 she is out to sea and the GFS says, "Nothing to see here". 

[griteater]

Cold never really catches up with the precip. thru 126.

Yep, 500mb low is faster and not closed off...precip zips on out.  This is a weak and south run.  700mb low not really closed off either

[DopplerWx]

dangit, precip outran the cold.  a step in the right direction though, just the timing is what needs some work.

[jburns]

Good old Raleigh.  They may know weather, but the calendar seems to be beyond them.

 

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CASES OF A TRACE TO AN INCH OF
SNOW BEFORE THANKSGIVING IN CENTRAL NC IN THE PAST 50 YEARS... THERE
ESSENTIALLY HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS OF RECORD BEFORE
THANKSGIVING... SINCE 1970. CLIMATOLOGY TELLS US THAT IT MAY BE SOME
SNOW BEFORE THANKSGIVING... BUT IT WOULD BE UNPRECEDENTED TO GET A
MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS EARLY.

 

Basing all this on being before Thanksgiving is curious. This year Thanksgiving is late. The dates in question would be post Thanksgiving in many years.

[Tacoma]

Cold never really catches up with the precip. thru 126.

Can we not get the cold to come in just ahead of the storm?  I know we're in Nov. but why is it so hard every year to get the cold in just ahead of the storm?