packbacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like the Euro has moved to the idea of a phase. Definitely lots of rain, as has been said. That's good news. Yep, if the NC/VA mtns want a big storm they need the phase later, if we want to see snow we need what the CMC/GFS are cooking, no phase, but strong closed low that tracks down the NC/SC border. To be honest, I am kind of hoping for a big phase bomb that plasters NC/VA mountains up through the MA and NE, be fun to watch, but they need a perfectly timed phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yep, if the NC/VA mtns want a big storm they need the phase later, if we want to see snow we need what the CMC/GFS are cooking, no phase, but strong closed low that tracks down the NC/SC border. To be honest, I am kind of hoping for a big phase bomb that plasters NC/VA mountains up through the MA and NE, be fun to watch, but they need a perfectly timed phase. Funny, with the last real snow potential a couple weeks ago the Euro was the best looking model for snow, and the GFS said no. The GFS won that battle. Now we have the GFS looking better for snow, and the Euro saying a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 End of the Euro isn't too bad. Looks like it's going on a rinse repeat cycle just on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I for one hate a cold rain but really we need rain bad so I will take that for next week then nothing but wintry weather here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 the ukie is a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yep, if the NC/VA mtns want a big storm they need the phase later, if we want to see snow we need what the CMC/GFS are cooking, no phase, but strong closed low that tracks down the NC/SC border. I agree Packbacker though I suspect no phase may be better for all parties involved from a temperature standpoint as I don't think shortwave phasing would occur far enough south. With a more phased solution, the system would move more up the east coast, but not necessarily colder for the southeast in this particular setup. There are quite a few 12z GFS Ensemble members that have more northern stream interaction compared to the operational run, drawing the storm up the east coast, similar to the UKMet and Euro. FWIW, HPC discussion from this morning prefers a slower ejection of the southwest cutoff... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HANGING BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, THEDETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SPREAD DOWNSTREAM REMAINS ENORMOUS. WHENTHAT WAVE FINALLY EJECTS, ITS NORTHERN EXTENT WILL BE SUBJECT TOTHE PHASE OF THE PROGRESSION OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS SAILING ASTRIDETHE CANADIAN BORDER. RELIED ON THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTICBACKGROUND FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES THIS PACKAGE. THISPARTICULAR ENSEMBLE MEAN KEPT MORE BAGGINESS IN THE ISOBARICPATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--AREFLECTION OF A CLUSTER OF ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THAT INDICATED ASLOWER EJECTION. SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER WITH REGARD TO THEPROGRESS OF SUCH SOUTHWEST HANGBACK TROUGHS, SO WANTED TO HEDGEBETS IN THAT DIRECTION. PERUSAL OF THE 20 ENSEMBLE MEMBERSCOMPRISING THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN SHOWED DRAMATIC VARIATION--SOMEDRY, COLD SOLUTIONS FOR THE EAST COAST--SOME SNOWY ONES FROM THETENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC--SOME RAINY, WINDY ONES ALLTHE WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION TYPE ASIDE, THE WAVE WILLSTILL AFFECT MAJOR AIRPORTS FROM DALLAS TO ATLANTA, AND PROBABLYTHE BIG HUBS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE ALWAYS-BUSY TRAVELDAYS BEFORE THANKSGIVING.THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE TWO EARLY SEASON ARCTIC OUTBREAKS FROMTHE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SHOULD DELIVER A FRIGIDBLAST TO MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THESECOND IS SLATED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE SAME AREAS IN THE WAKE OFTHE SOUTHERN WAVE ON THANKSGIVING DAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Lets put all our stock in the JMA! Same panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Just saw this from RAH: Today NOAA issued its official Winter Outlook: http://1.usa.gov/19KGYz3. With no strong climate pattern influence (El Nino or El Nina) anticipated through this upcoming winter season, making a long-range prediction was a challenge, according to Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.Across the Southeast, including North Carolina, there is a signal that winter precipitation should be near or below normal. The temperature forecast lacks a strong or reliable climate signal resulting in an inconclusive forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 the ukie is a phase. Doesn't the UK Met have a bias towards more amplified solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Just saw this from RAH: Today NOAA issued its official Winter Outlook: http://1.usa.gov/19KGYz3. With no strong climate pattern influence (El Nino or El Nina) anticipated through this upcoming winter season, making a long-range prediction was a challenge, according to Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.Across the Southeast, including North Carolina, there is a signal that winter precipitation should be near or below normal. The temperature forecast lacks a strong or reliable climate signal resulting in an inconclusive forecast. Talk about beating around the bush, just a fancy way of saying we don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Lets put all our stock in the JMA! Same panel Remember, when looking at JMA maps, it may be showing precip west of the 32 degree line, but the JMA maps show 12 hour precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Remember, when looking at JMA maps, it may be showing precip west of the 32 degree line, but the JMA maps show 12 hour precip maps. The JMA is also high on meth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS output has high of 39 for Sun and Monday for Charlotte with dewpoints from zero to single digits = pure arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro is a huge rain maker for the SE, almost all of NC get's 3" of rain on Tuesday/Wednesday. It's a cold rain, a truly miserable day. You are describing my dream scenario, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The JMA is also high on meth. DGEX usually does bath salts, but today decided to mellow out on weed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The JMA is also high on meth. 99% pure blue meth, to be exact. I don't think the JMA really showed anything, though. Those panels are for 24-hour QPF and it looks like the JMA brought the surface low right up the Eastern Seaboard quite inland, so I'd think rain for all from the SE to Maine (and even southern Ontario). Granted, it's hard to tell what is really going on given the crappy 24-hour panels, though. The JMA's solution is likely too extreme, though. It is colorful, however. EDIT: As Burger said, though, there may be something on the back end. Who knows? It's the JMA, so it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Be interesting to see what the Euro monthly run shows tonight. I believe it goes live around 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Remember, when looking at JMA maps, it may be showing precip west of the 32 degree line, but the JMA maps show 12 hour precip maps. Oh yes I know. It's always the inbetween panels you want to see. My guess would be though given what panels you can see that would probably be something on the back end. Either way it was more of a joke than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 How reliable is the 12z hi res EURO? I see 1-3" north-west Piedmont, 3-4" foothills, and 5" in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Are the chances growing for a possible rain to snow changeover in the mountains? Sure looks that way to me. I feel like we have been tracking this for a week already, and it's still 6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Shall we start a thread for the TG system by someone with good reputation? Some of the pattern stuff is getting lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS output has high of 39 for Sun and Monday for Charlotte with dewpoints from zero to single digits = pure arctic airmass. This will be as cold a November as I can remember, we are definitely going to finish a negative departure, the question is how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This is as cold a November as I can remember, we are definitely going to finish a negative departure, the question is how much. Temp departures so far for Nov... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Temp departures so far for Nov... Interesting, well the CFSv2 is definitely going to be wrong about November, from your map it looks like we will finish November around -2 or lower, possibly -3F. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201311.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Shall we start a thread for the TG system by someone with good reputation? Some of the pattern stuff is getting lost. This is still 5-6 days away...I always hold the philosophy that you wait until 3-4 days until dedicating a thread to a specific event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 DGEX usually does bath salts, but today decided to mellow out on weed. Honestly.... honestly. Even if it Nov and the models have been all over the place.... but considering the longwave pattern being shown by in-consistent models..... that looks pretty damn reasonable! No matter if its N,D,J,F,M some of the best snowstorms come from S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 NWS did have WNC rain and snow for Wednesday and now just rain for wednesday. From what I'm reading on here there is a growing chance of snow Wednesday. Has the NWS service gone out to lunch since they're not even saying there is a chance of snow on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 NWS did have WNC rain and snow for Wednesday and now just rain for wednesday. From what I'm reading on here there is a growing chance of snow Wednesday. Has the NWS service gone out to lunch since they're not even saying there is a chance of snow on Wednesday? The GFS model still doesn't support snow for Wednesday for the mountains, while the Euro is supportive of it. However, the last "big" storm we had, the Euro did horribly at this distance and I am sure GSP is taking that into consideration. GFS has been really great this year for the most part. I see no reason to go against it right now. That being said, it isn't cold enough yet for the measurable snows the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Out to 138, sfc low across northern FL, 500mb low in southern MS...looks like it is going to stay pretty far south...no sign of northern stream interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z coming in much further south and more positively tilted. Snow breaking out in central TN (Nashville area) at hr 129. EDIT: The northern foothills and extreme northwestern Piedmont in NC (as well as SW VA) look like almost all snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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