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November 2013 pattern and discussion

WxJordan

By WxJordan,
in Southeastern States

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I’m still optimistic about the pattern turning decisively colder around the 1st of December. The indices are trying to show a better setup starting in a couple of weeks. Then if we allow for a lag for the effects that would take us to Thanksgiving or just after.   

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

NAO – Looks to stay somewhere around neutral. But the spread does have equal amounts positive and negative in the LR.

AO – Definitely heading towards negative. How much negative and for how long is still not known.

PNA – Heading for neutral or maybe positive.  

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
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It's frame 34 I want to see verify.  I can wait a bit on the rest, if need be, but a honkin' gulf low is just what I need for complete happiness at this time :)  Well, not complete... a Lamborghini would help, an in invite to JOe's fashion model swim/picnic..well, and a 5 inch sleet.  But all that can wait...it's that gom low I want :)  T

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

 

Impressive torch showing up for the second half of November on the new 12Z GFS!

That resembles the euro on shrooms yesterday. Im interested to see what the Euro shows today.  First the euro now the goofus... so might actually be something to it.

 

 

If it does happen in which we get a huge trough in the east. Then some places may have the chance of the first flakes of the season.

Lol at the 12z GFS run. What a weenie run for a model this time of the year. The whole run would bust a lot of the its going to be very warm this month forecast.

:frostymelt:

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

That resembles the euro on shrooms yesterday. Im interested to see what the Euro shows today.  First the euro now the goofus... so might actually be something to it.

 

 

If it does happen in which we get a huge trough in the east. Then some places may have the chance of the first flakes of the season.

:frostymelt:

Ya some interesting runs of late for both models. I agree with Fallslake that the telleconnections are looking favorable towards the end of the month. Not sure I really buy the cold look of either model but I do see near normal temps and no torch.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Ya some interesting runs of late for both models. I agree with Fallslake that the telleconnections are looking favorable towards the end of the month. Not sure I really buy the cold look of either model but I do see near normal temps and no torch.

Yeah it has been interesting on both models.

 

What really has my interest in next Tue-Thurs timeframe. I know its still six+ days out.... but the GFS to some degree(6z, 0Z, 18z)  has been showing an extrememly strong CAD developing.  Along with the possibility of a sheared s/w developing into a upper closed low.  If it dont either way still a pretty strong disturbance.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=180ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=180ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_180_700_rh_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

Probably wont be anything of major consequence but maybe something to watch. Could be token flakes or sun in the piedmont.

And just like that, the big SE ridge idea is gone.from the GFS/Euro.  

 

Me thinks the Pacific is on our side this year, unlike the past 2 seasons.

 

I agree. Well deserved break of constant torture considering.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

I’m still optimistic about the pattern turning decisively colder around the 1st of December. The indices are trying to show a better setup starting in a couple of weeks. Then if we allow for a lag for the effects that would take us to Thanksgiving or just after.   

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

NAO – Looks to stay somewhere around neutral. But the spread does have equal amounts positive and negative in the LR.

AO – Definitely heading towards negative. How much negative and for how long is still not known.

PNA – Heading for neutral or maybe positive.  

This is what we need to be watching instead of the last panel of the Euro run to run.

 

I'm optimistic about the transition into December and of course the new year. A few days ago the NAO was progged heavily negative for the most part, now equal parts +/-, not sure if it's my bias but I'm thinking its headed downhill, we'll see. The indices could be much worse, at least they're headed in a favorable direction.

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fountainguy97

fountainguy97

Posted
Posted

Definitely liking the looks of the latest patterns into  last half of November.

 

GFS again shows a VA snow system at 160 hrs out.  Has a weak low popping off east coast.  But it is the GFS, BUT it is inside 180 hrs.  But its still the GFS ha. I doubt this will verify but I like the deep east coast trough. 

 

Any way you look at it this is definitely a good sign for our winter regardless of  model fantasy lands.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Definitely liking the looks of the latest patterns into  last half of November.

 

GFS again shows a VA snow system at 160 hrs out.  Has a weak low popping off east coast.  But it is the GFS, BUT it is inside 180 hrs.  But its still the GFS ha. I doubt this will verify but I like the deep east coast trough. 

 

Any way you look at it this is definitely a good sign for our winter regardless of  model fantasy lands.

Anything around 160 hours out showing 8-10" or more snowfall in DC/any heavily populated MA region area, people are going to stay up for the Euro. Haha. If I lived in DC it would be hard to not be a wee bit excited, even though the chances of it verifying are slim.

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fountainguy97

fountainguy97

Posted
Posted

Anything around 160 hours out showing 8-10" or more snowfall in DC/any heavily populated MA region area, people are going to stay up for the Euro. Haha. If I lived in DC it would be hard to not be a wee bit excited, even though the chances of it verifying are slim.

 

Oh yeah No doubt about it. One day all of us will be model watching just like that haha no matter how slim the chances or which model.  But that's part of the show.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

This is what we need to be watching instead of the last panel of the Euro run to run.

 

I'm optimistic about the transition into December and of course the new year. A few days ago the NAO was progged heavily negative for the most part, now equal parts +/-, not sure if it's my bias but I'm thinking its headed downhill, we'll see. The indices could be much worse, at least they're headed in a favorable direction.

Not sure if the NAO was going heavy negative but I do think we are headed in the right direction like you said. It is pretty amazing what the GFS and the Euro have been spitting out but for once I will be happy with just average temps for Thanksgiving. I really do not think we get into any type of favorable pattern until December.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Not sure if the NAO was going heavy negative but I do think we are headed in the right direction like you said. It is pretty amazing what the GFS and the Euro have been spitting out but for once I will be happy with just average temps for Thanksgiving. I really do not think we get into any type of favorable pattern until December.

Yeah my bad I meant heavily downward towards neutral? haha...what I meant was, it looked more favorable then the "equal parts +/-" thing. I tend to get what I say interpreted differently, as my girlfriend says I'm bad at explaining things :lmao:

 

I agree. It would be awesome to get locked into a pattern in December, I remember last year in February thinking "we still have a chance for winter" fighting the pacific, ugh...don't want to go through that again. The fact that the GFS and Euro are spitting out snow on the east coast already is hard to ignore but I have to calm my inner weenie for now.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Yeah my bad I meant heavily downward towards neutral? haha...what I meant was, it looked more favorable then the "equal parts +/-" thing. I tend to get what I say interpreted differently, as my girlfriend says I'm bad at explaining things :lmao:

 

I agree. It would be awesome to get locked into a pattern in December, I remember last year in February thinking "we still have a chance for winter" fighting the pacific, ugh...don't want to go through that again. The fact that the GFS and Euro are spitting out snow on the east coast already is hard to ignore but I have to calm my inner weenie for now.

lol Same here Jon! Man looking at those maps today I was like wow we may have a chance but then you know out to hour 170 and the way the models have been going back and forth I think I would feel better about any event at hour 72. The PAC I hope we can get a better setup than last year also. It ruined out pattern last year even with a negative AO and NAO. Seeing some intermittent signs of a ridge out West is very good IMO

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

The 18z is on what ever the euro was on. :axe:

 

While Im a bit interested about next week this run is way off the rocker. 

 

Not so sure it won't happen similar to what's being modeled. Would not be surprised at all to see a Mid Atlantic snowfall this time of year. However, it is a big change from what was modeled just a few days ago and we know how things tend to change when it comes to east coast snowstorms.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Not so sure it won't happen similar to what's being modeled. Would not be surprised at all to see a Mid Atlantic snowfall this time of year. However, it is a big change from what was modeled just a few days ago and we know how things tend to change when it comes to east coast snowstorms.

I agree. But it is interesting and something to watch.

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

I hope the gfs/euro are correct with the arctic HP system coming into the plains/midwest. That could be a good trend for winter.

 

Just the abundance of HP alone is a good sign.  We couldn't buy a decent HP system at all last season.

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