Poimen Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's dead in here! Did Dr. No live up to the name, and take any chance of frozen precip away? It has the storm but not cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I really dont know whats up with the models. Ive seen worse setups then this deliver snow but I don't understand given the longwave pattern being depicted. The long wave pattern would support a SE snowstorm imo. Deep trough from Canada to SE with a robust s/w at the end. There is a ridge as well one would logicially think the s/w energy would dive s/e into the s/w into the southern stream. Considering too the distance and amount of bagginess being shown on the main models. It's November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's November. People seem to keep forgetting that. Guess it's a good sign and shows just how starved we've been. Wasn't too happy with the 00z last night in the LR but that seems to be a burp. What really has me excited is that we could be getting a reload of the spring/summer pattern we had. If so, Dec and Jan. could be explosive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 People seem to keep forgetting that. Guess it's a good sign and shows just how starved we've been. Wasn't too happy with the 00z last night in the LR but that seems to be a burp. What really has me excited is that we could be getting a reload of the spring/summer pattern we had. If so, Dec and Jan. could be explosive. I agree. Hour 364 on the 06z GFS looked to be a pretty favorable pattern with a ridge in the west and energy diving down the middle of the country with an active feed ready in the Gulf. Now if we can get it to really look like that 364 hours from now. The big rains coming out of the Gulf next week has to be a sign that the pattern is changing from the dry one we have been in for the past couple of months. It may not produce big winter storms in my backyard, but at least the conditions are looking more favorable for someone to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not that amounts really matter this far out, but it's interesting that the 06z GFS is advertising 2.4 inches of snow in east TN for Wed afternoon, both Knoxville and Tri-Cities. 00z Euro also tries to lay down a quick sloppy inch as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 wow, old school gulf low with copious moisture, just no cold air yep, at 168 a 1001mb low right off myrtle beach, man oh man if we had the cold air. Too bad it's not December or January yet. Might give us a monster snow. I am really liking the players on the field, but I worry about how long they will be on there. I don't want this to be a winter of having all the players on the field, but something is always missing, either not cold enough for snow or no precip when it is cold enough for snow. The players might look great, but I want it to produce some wins, not just good games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 People seem to keep forgetting that. Guess it's a good sign and shows just how starved we've been. Wasn't too happy with the 00z last night in the LR but that seems to be a burp. What really has me excited is that we could be getting a reload of the spring/summer pattern we had. If so, Dec and Jan. could be explosive. If that happens, our friend Bobbitt's winter map is going to look like the gold standard. In regards to the upcoming storm next week, I actually think the cold air is plenty cold enough, which is what raised my interest. Unfortunately, the northern stream is too progressive due to the lack of a negative NAO, thus we just can't get the cold air involved with the storm enough. I really don't think this would produce a significant wintry event even in the heart of winter - at best, it might be a snow to rain scenario, and who wants that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 If that happens, our friend Bobbitt's winter map is going to look like the gold standard. In regards to the upcoming storm next week, I actually think the cold air is plenty cold enough, which is what raised my interest. Unfortunately, the northern stream is too progressive due to the lack of a negative NAO, thus we just can't get the cold air involved with the storm enough. I really don't think this would produce a significant wintry event even in the heart of winter - at best, it might be a snow to rain scenario, and who wants that?! This has not been discussed to be honest. This never would have been a big winter storm regardless, with only the highest elevations maybe reaching storm criteria. As burger suggested, the fact that this is our main discussion right now is a symptom of our winter malnutrition over the last two years. Climo is still don of the table, but it is encouraging to see these possibilities rolling in - especially given the progressive stream and less than stellar indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 If that happens, our friend Bobbitt's winter map is going to look like the gold standard. In regards to the upcoming storm next week, I actually think the cold air is plenty cold enough, which is what raised my interest. Unfortunately, the northern stream is too progressive due to the lack of a negative NAO, thus we just can't get the cold air involved with the storm enough. I really don't think this would produce a significant wintry event even in the heart of winter - at best, it might be a snow to rain scenario, and who wants that?! Good post. As you and Bevo said, the overall setup isn't what it needs to be for a big winter storm. My first inclination as to why we're mostly out of the game (at this point) was to say, "because it's November". I don't discount that totally -- climo does have a role to play. But this aint your Daddy's November. There is a ton of cold air being generated and being delivered into the CONUS...plenty cold enough to support snow in our area. The issue is what it is many times throughout the winter. It's timing, and it's N/S stream interaction, which depends on ridging and blocking and, again, timing. Like I've said before, if the system were to slow down, the cold air would work in first, and it would be a different story. No model is showing that as a possibility though. So, if we don't get the proper ridging out west or blocking to the NE, then we'll be most likely getting a cold rain, which is what we should all expect -- partly because it's November, but more importantly, because of just bad timing and not having the necessary ridging and blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Good post. As you and Bevo said, the overall setup isn't what it needs to be for a big winter storm. My first inclination as to why we're mostly out of the game (at this point) was to say, "because it's November". I don't discount that totally -- climo does have a role to play. But this aint your Daddy's November. There is a ton of cold air being generated and being delivered into the CONUS...plenty cold enough to support snow in our area. The issue is what it is many times throughout the winter. It's timing, and it's N/S stream interaction, which depends on ridging and blocking and, again, timing. Like I've said before, if the system were to slow down, the cold air would work in first, and it would be a different story. No model is showing that as a possibility though. So, if we don't get the proper ridging out west or blocking to the NE, then we'll be most likely getting a cold rain, which is what we should all expect -- partly because it's November, but more importantly, because of just bad timing and not having the necessary ridging and blocking. Bingo! This is exactly what I meant but was too lazy to type out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 As far as the longer range goes, the PNA is forecast to continue rising to neutral and generally staying there. The AO looks to drop to just below neutral, followed by a sharp rise, followed by another drop. The NAO looks to stay around neutral, with some spread in the LR. H5 progs do not really show a favorable NAO configuration anytime soon. The EPO should remain negative for a good while, as Griteater said. The MJO is shown to continue to remain in or near the COD. The CFSv2 shows negative temp anomalies through week 3 with a substantial warm signal for week 4. It seems to flip-flop daily, though. The take-away for me is that there doesn't seem to be any signal for torching in the foreseeable future. The upcoming pattern seems to favor storm chances with intermittent cold shots and warm-ups. Temps on the below side of normal would be a good forecast for the next couple of weeks. The end of the Euro last night features a nice GOA low. Hopefully that is a transient feature. There certainly is plenty of uncertainty for December's fate. I would tend to lean toward a colder than normal month, just based on how we're seeing the atmosphere behave now. Hopefully, that will continue, and we can start to see a turn-around in the NAO area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Bingo! This is exactly what I meant but was too lazy to type out! Ha! I'm right there with ya. I'm waiting on a conference call to start, so I just kept typing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 there is no goa low shown on the ensembles. epo stays negative, but so does the nao. sorry I meant that the NAO stays positive to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 As far as the longer range goes, the PNA is forecast to continue rising to neutral and generally staying there. The AO looks to drop to just below neutral, followed by a sharp rise, followed by another drop. The NAO looks to stay around neutral, with some spread in the LR. H5 progs do not really show a favorable NAO configuration anytime soon. The EPO should remain negative for a good while, as Griteater said. The MJO is shown to continue to remain in or near the COD. The CFSv2 shows negative temp anomalies through week 3 with a substantial warm signal for week 4. It seems to flip-flop daily, though. The take-away for me is that there doesn't seem to be any signal for torching in the foreseeable future. The upcoming pattern seems to favor storm chances with intermittent cold shots and warm-ups. Temps on the below side of normal would be a good forecast for the next couple of weeks. The end of the Euro last night features a nice GOA low. Hopefully that is a transient feature. There certainly is plenty of uncertainty for December's fate. I would tend to lean toward a colder than normal month, just based on how we're seeing the atmosphere behave now. Hopefully, that will continue, and we can start to see a turn-around in the NAO area So then...a normal SE winter pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 So then...a normal SE winter pattern? Well...seems like the last few years have been running warm. But yeah, more of the historical norm, with a slight bias cold and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well...seems like the last few years have been running warm. But yeah, more of the historical norm, with a slight bias cold and wet. The last 2 in particular ran above normal (temps) for the majority of the SE, but what you are describing now is indicative of what we would typically experience during the winter season. This would be a good thing if it continues to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The last 2 in particular ran above normal (temps) for the majority of the SE, but what you are describing now is indicative of what we would typically experience during the winter season. This would be a good thing if it continues to be the case. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 One thing we have going for us in the depiction the models are showing is the cold air coming in from the NE. Most of the cold catching moisture situations involve the cold making it over the mountains. Something to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 well tge cold still isnt there on 12z...but the moisture is a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Did our low just retrograde southward off the OBX between hr 156 and 162 or is Ewall fouling up? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Oh so close to seeing some frozen precip on T-giving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 If the models are playing catch up with the depth of the cold air as they sometimes do in the days leading up to a storm, then there could still be a slight chance that someone outside the mountains could see some wintery mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'm guessing the clown maps are going to show some snow for some outside the mountains in NC/VA on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 man oh man, at 168 it is a much better run...frozen precip throughout central nc down to the sc/nc border. low is slower this run and throws back much more precip tgiving day. great trends. compare 12z tgiving day: 6z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Did our low just retrograde southward off the OBX between hr 156 and 162 or is Ewall fouling up? WTF? No... Convective feedback issue. Does still look miller b ish type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Did our low just retrograde southward off the OBX between hr 156 and 162 or is Ewall fouling up? WTF? It can't figure out where it wants to put the center of the low. I have no idea if what the model is showing this run is physically plausible, but what it is doing is keeping the H5 low closed longer and it is effectively keeping a lagging area of precip behind the main low. If that occurs, and the cold air depth/strength/timing is underestimated at all, this could be a nice little surprise for areas outside of the mountains...if what the model is showing is even possible. Certainly a different wrinkle than we've seen so far. Means we have to keep tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Nice step. All we needed was the system to slow down and this shows just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Starting off December, the GFS look much better with a more defined Aleutian Low in place and really pumping up the AK ridge. We need to root for a Greenland block as this progresses or it's going to be another transient setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 clown maps showing 8-10" over CLT area, small strip of heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 clown maps showing 8-10" over CLT area, small strip of heavy snow just saw that lol, localized max of 11.5" right around charlotte, and 6-10" stretches across the nc/sc border. wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.