burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro is out to 126. It does appear to have a little more cool air to work with. We'll see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Maybe it's just me, but the 12z Canadian looked really close to something big. It did appear to drive the upper energy harder to the south, but didn't quite fully phase with the southern stream wave. Even still, it looks like many would end as some flakes from roughly I-95 west in NC, and the upstate of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro is damn close for a CAD event. Has a 1032 high in the lakes region with a gulf system in bounds. Low is sitting around the FL panhandle. Kind of takes on that funky double barrel look but hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 By 150 it's a double barrel low so the cold air goes bye bye. Also looks like I was reading it wrong. It was 1012 high not a 1032. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 By 150 it's a double barrel low so the cold air goes bye bye. Also looks like I was reading it wrong. It was 1012 high not a 1032. Not what I wanted to read....lol....but I do the blocking with the stj thrown in as we head into December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 This run of the Euro is either a heartbreaker or a hope bringing it's so close to something big. @168 with cold air incoming it's bringing another low from SAV to CAE . Mountains might be in a sweet spot at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Hard to tell how much would be snow but the Euro puts something down @180 for NC. Looks alot like the GFS @192....this could get interesting for Thanksgiving. Figures since I'll be in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Hard to tell how much would be snow but the Euro puts something down @180 for NC. Looks alot like the GFS @192....this could get interesting for Thanksgiving. Figures since I'll be in Florida. How far north does the precip shield get on the Euro? Out of curiosity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 It's close but not going to happen this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 How far north does the precip shield get on the Euro? Out of curiosity? For VA the cold air never quite makes it over the mountains and when it does there is no moisture to work with. FTR even for NC it looks a lot like cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Based on the Euro, most areas will be rain for the duration of the event, with the only exception the mountains, which could pick up snow before the main precipitation band pushes out and then again from northwest flow. This seems like a reasonable solution for late November. BUT... There are so many little things that can change this forecast that we need to watch. Temperatures at the ground and aloft are 6-10 degrees F to warm most locations north of I-85 in places like Hickory, Statesville, Winston-Salem, Asheville, etc. in North Carolina. If the storm pushes farther off the coast, that is one way we can get cooler air into the area. If the northern phase drifts further south, that would provide another shot of cold air. That will all come down to perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 How far north does the precip shield get on the Euro? Out of curiosity? Looks like RIC does 2-4", CHO is right on the northern edge of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Things seem to get a little better with each model run right now. Plenty of time for things to change, but that could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Looks like RIC does 2-4", CHO is right on the northern edge of that. We must be looking at different maps. From what I see through SV RIC is never cold enough during the event. When it's cold enough it looks like the cold has chased away the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 At 240, Euro has a solid cross polar flow developed just like the GFS with a block west of AK moving into the arctic. Amazing at the agreement with the Euro and GFS so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 At 240, Euro has a solid cross polar flow developed just like the GFS with a block west of AK moving into the arctic. Amazing at the agreement with the Euro and GFS so far out. It also has some energy in the SW looking to head east. I would be interested to see what the Euro ENS looks like outside of 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Subtropical jet, cross-polar flow, decent teleconnections, hints of blocking and ridging in the right spots. All of this setting up as we head into December instead of April. I must be dreaming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 It also has some energy in the SW looking to head east. I would be interested to see what the Euro ENS looks like outside of 240. Last nights 0z run had a cold looking pattern for the east in the 11-15 day range. Can we post maps from pay sites now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Anyone see the GFS for tues morning? It was showing snow earlier even for us upstate folks! Btw I'm new to the board, been lurking awhile so joined last week. Thank you all for some good info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The Euro is simply too fast with the southern system or too slow with the northern wave. A change in the timing of either will have big ramifications. Still bears watching.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The Euro is simply too fast with the southern system or too slow with the northern wave. A change in the timing of either will have big ramifications. Still bears watching.... Agreed and as I said before, the 12z Canadian is awfully close to what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Last nights 0z run had a cold looking pattern for the east in the 11-15 day range. Can we post maps from pay sites now? Nope pay sites are still out. I'll probably pick up AccuWx soon. With GFS and Euro looking closer together it has my interest. I always kind of just look over it when both models are spitting out different scenarios especially when each run is different. Seems they are now honing in on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Agreed and as I said before, the 12z Canadian is awfully close to what we want. Doesn't the Canadian seem to have a habit the last couple of winters to over play the cold? Just seems that way to me anyways. Totally anecdotal just wondering what your take on the CMC is recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Nope pay sites are still out. I'll probably pick up AccuWx soon. With GFS and Euro looking closer together it has my interest. I always kind of just look over it when both models are spitting out different scenarios especially when each run is different. Seems they are now honing in on something. I have weatherbell, they have the euro ensembles for past day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Doesn't the Canadian seem to have a habit the last couple of winters to over play the cold? Just seems that way to me anyways. Totally anecdotal just wondering what your take on the CMC is recently. In this case, I'm not sure the *cold is being overplayed considering GFS and Euro solutions, as much as it might be overdoing how far south it goes. It's timing is definitely the ideal one at the moment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Nope pay sites are still out. I'll probably pick up AccuWx soon. With GFS and Euro looking closer together it has my interest. I always kind of just look over it when both models are spitting out different scenarios especially when each run is different. Seems they are now honing in on something. Regarding our Model Center, I'm hoping to get some premium Euro data from a source in the coming days. Waiting to hear back from the contact on some options. We know that's the one main thing that keeps us from getting a bunch of the Accuwx, SV, and WxBell customers. And on posting maps from the MC, we don't mind posting a map or two to go along with a post. Posting like every single map from an entire run would be frowned upon, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Regarding our Model Center, I'm hoping to get some premium Euro data from a source in the coming days. Waiting to hear back from the contact on some options. We know that's the one main thing that keeps us from getting a bunch of the Accuwx, SV, and WxBell customers. And on posting maps from the MC, we don't mind posting a map or two to go along with a post. Posting like every single map from an entire run would be frowned upon, however. This can probably move to OT but I would gladly support AmWx MC but that is my one hang up. SV just has some darn good Euro maps. Outside of that I did like the GFS model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Doesn't the Canadian seem to have a habit the last couple of winters to over play the cold? Just seems that way to me anyways. Totally anecdotal just wondering what your take on the CMC is recently. Unfortunately my take on the Canadian recently is that it has been a real mess. It over-deepens everything and is generally just not a very reliable model. I can remember a winter event back in 2011 (sad I have to think back that far) where it actually was colder and more suppressed with southern stream energy and it ended up verifying, so it's not like it is always wrong - just usually . Anyways, just pointing out that the H5 look of it is much closer to what we'd need to have happen. The fact we have a near-neutral NAO means that most likely the more flat northern stream solution will verify though unless the western ridge can somehow amplify just due to the Pacific - but in all honesty, it's not likely. This one very well may just be a swing and a miss, but that's the fun thing about weather, once in a while it just works out how you want it to despite everything. In this case, I'm not sure the *cold is being overplayed considering GFS and Euro solutions, as much as it might be overdoing how far south it goes. It's timing is definitely the ideal one at the moment though. Exactly. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Several inches of snow on the EURO for the high country at hr168. By 174 it's over a large chunk of VA east of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 RAH not providing any mention of wintery precip in afternoon discussion. Probably smart thing to do. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUE AS MODELS DEVELOP AND AREA OFLOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. MODELS DIFFER WITH THEHANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED...BUT DO AGREE THERE WILL BEINCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TUE INTO WED. HOWTHE SYSTEM PHASES/INTERACTS WITH THE RELOADING NORTHERN STREAMTROUGH ACROSS THE EAST U.S. WILL HAVE GREAT IMPACTS ON THE FORECASTFOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION... WITH POSSIBLY ACOASTAL SYSTEM AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS. EXPECT CONTINUEDBELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME... WITH INCREASING ODDS FORPRECIP FROM LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE WILLMOVE IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WED NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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