Stovepipe Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Wow. Is this for real!? What month is this!? Checking the weather, browsing porn, torrenting tv episodes, all while writing a term paper. That's some fine multitasking! Might as well fire up a game of chess while you're at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Even if we don't see anything frozen out of this system, an inch or more of rain will be welcome in the NC piedmont where things have been drying out. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 White Christmas - 2010 White Thanksgiving - 2013 White Halloween - 2016????????? Just kidding, haha. That was a nice run, though. Every run is getting successively colder. We still have a long way to go, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 If the system slows down, there may be an outside shot of someone getting a few flakes. What's with the new Miller Bish look now? I will be in Pigeon Forge/Gatlinburg for T-giving, and the rain to snow scenario still seems realistically reasonable for me this far out. I don't have all the good feels about it really slowing down though (that 12/24 hrs would be nice). It seems like these systems end up pushing through faster if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Checking the weather, browsing porn, torrenting tv episodes, all while writing a term paper. That's some fine multitasking! Might as well fire up a game of chess while you're at it. LOL!! I can't stop laughing at this, too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 And to put a cherry on top, the 12z GFS still has the PV cutting off over SE Canada with blocks pushing into the arctic at the end of the run. That's pretty impressive consistency for a 300+ forecast from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Checking the weather, browsing porn, torrenting tv episodes, all while writing a term paper. That's some fine multitasking! Might as well fire up a game of chess while you're at it. lmao. I must say I have gotten good at it. But I must also say that porn tab is a research paper I am referencing "Pornographic Picture Processing Interferes with Working Memory Performance." http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23167900 I can't believe I am seeing 30's for highs all the way down here...20 as a low in Fayetteville in November, just crazy. I don't even mind if this system just brings rain, really. I'm wondering if it will end as snow, though. TWC says 100% chance of rain on both the 26 and 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Well, until the systems start getting suppressed toward Cuba, I'm not so sure we are in business yet. First the storm, then too far west, then too far east, then too far north, then too far south.... and then the elusive brass ring, lol. The 6 stages of southern ip/sn/z gold. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 If the system slows down, there may be an outside shot of someone getting a few flakes. What's with the new Miller Bish look now? It looks like convective feedback to me - I don't see any reason for two low centers like that. If the upper low slows down and if the western ridge can sharpen up, then that should allow for the surface high to move in faster and possible get ahead of the system. The cold air is there - heck, we're still 180 hours out so we know this thing is going to change, how about a change for the better for once?!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 If the system slows down, there may be an outside shot of someone getting a few flakes. What's with the new Miller Bish look now? I know right, what caused that leading lp to form, it did not match up well with the 500 mb map. The transfer off the SE coast was not the issue I have with this run, it's the initial low jetting out to the North Atlantic with a secondary forming off GA/SC, all while the shortwave is still over AL/MS. Surface does not match the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Checking the weather, browsing porn, torrenting tv episodes, all while writing a term paper. That's some fine multitasking! Might as well fire up a game of chess while you're at it. LOL!!!! +1 for Stovepipe..... epic fail on Sandhills part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 lmao. I must say I have gotten good at it. But I must also say that porn tab is a research paper I am referencing "Pornographic Picture Processing Interferes with Working Memory Performance." I had a great reply, but I forgot what i was going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 It looks like convective feedback to me - I don't see any reason for two low centers like that. If the upper low slows down and if the western ridge can sharpen up, then that should allow for the surface high to move in faster and possible get ahead of the system. The cold air is there - heck, we're still 180 hours out so we know this thing is going to change, how about a change for the better for once?!. Yes, it would be great if we see things get better as time goes along, not worse like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Thanks guys. Yeah, I agree. The H5 look in no way looked to me like a Miller B or Miller A/B hybrid scenario. And there was not really any CAD to speak of, prior to the system moving in, which you'd usually expect to see for a good Miller B. And to Wow's point, the LR still looks good, and I love seeing it. Unfortunately, Don S. keeps on banging the warm December, no-blocking drum. He's pretty much got HM and Wes in his camp too. Either he's going to catastrophically bust (which would be an anomaly) or the GFS LR is going to be correct. I don't like the usual outcome of that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Be nice to get some northern stream interaction, would rather see this wrap up and pound someone, even if it's not us, than see a low scooting off the coast like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yes, it would be great if we see things get better as time goes along, not worse like usual. Brick this is the SE. It's November. It's not even Thanksgiving. And did I mention, this is the southeast? Don't expect snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 CMC is farther south with both the northern branch and cutoff compared to the gfs at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Be nice to get some northern stream interaction, would rather see this wrap up and pound someone, even if it's not us, than see a low scooting off the coast like that. Yeah, I know. Are the streams just too far apart? I mean, it looked like there was going to be an opportunity for phasing, but it never did. Is it because the northern stream energy just doesn't dig enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yeah, I know. Are the streams just too far apart? I mean, it looked like there was going to be an opportunity for phasing, but it never did. Is it because the northern stream energy just doesn't dig enough? That's why I said the western ridge needs to get taller (sharpen up). If that happens, it should force the northern stream to dig harder to the south, although we wouldn't want it to happen too early or it might end up pulling the whole system too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yeah, I know. Are the streams just too far apart? I mean, it looked like there was going to be an opportunity for phasing, but it never did. Is it because the northern stream energy just doesn't dig enough? It looked that way, Instead of digging southeast it really moved due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 That's why I said the western ridge needs to get taller (sharpen up). If that happens, it should force the northern stream to dig harder to the south, although we wouldn't want it to happen too early or it might end up pulling the whole system too far north. Thanks! The Euro did phase them and of course it had a stronger storm that hugged the coast. Be curious if that holds at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 That's why I said the western ridge needs to get taller (sharpen up). If that happens, it should force the northern stream to dig harder to the south, although we wouldn't want it to happen too early or it might end up pulling the whole system too far north. Ahh, gotcha. Yeah, we'd want a later phase for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Thanks guys. Yeah, I agree. The H5 look in no way looked to me like a Miller B or Miller A/B hybrid scenario. And there was not really any CAD to speak of, prior to the system moving in, which you'd usually expect to see for a good Miller B. And to Wow's point, the LR still looks good, and I love seeing it. Unfortunately, Don S. keeps on banging the warm December, no-blocking drum. He's pretty much got HM and Wes in his camp too. Either he's going to catastrophically bust (which would be an anomaly) or the GFS LR is going to be correct. I don't like the usual outcome of that scenario. Don works on odds and analogs. Which is a wise move to make when discussing long term predictions. Here we have the pacific pattern working very well in our favor. It's real and it's going to make a difference. Don even kept the door open for a possible "atypical" December pattern and always mentions the uncertainty with the indices. The GFS LR output reminds me a bit of Dec 95 with the strong -EPO & a falling NAO. IF the blocking is real, December will be a good month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Now compare to 144 of gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The 12z GEFS looks really close to the OP, a tick more west and seems to hug/track up the coast, I would imagine there a bunch of individual members that are wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Checking the weather, browsing porn, torrenting tv episodes, all while writing a term paper. That's some fine multitasking! Might as well fire up a game of chess while you're at it. :lmao: :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Don works on odds and analogs. Which is a wise move to make when discussing long term predictions. Here we have the pacific pattern working very well in our favor. It's real and it's going to make a difference. Don even kept the door open for a possible "atypical" December pattern and always mentions the uncertainty with the indices. The GFS LR output reminds me a bit of Dec 95 with the strong -EPO & a falling NAO. IF the blocking is real, December will be a good month. Yep, the Pacific has been looking good, and hopefully it'll remain that way. I remember Don leaving the door open for the atypical December, but he seemed to be growing more confident the last several days. I'll feel a lot better when some of these pretty patterns start showing up within the 5-7 day time frame. DT just posted a good read on his facebook page about the warm winter/+AO stuff being in deep doo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 That's why I said the western ridge needs to get taller (sharpen up). If that happens, it should force the northern stream to dig harder to the south, although we wouldn't want it to happen too early or it might end up pulling the whole system too far north. I totally agree with this statement. This would be very crucial in helping to funnel cold air down into the southeast. It will be cruical to watch how the models continue to evolve over the next few days. A lot depends on timing, and we all know how models are at this range, especially with a cut off storm. When will the energy eject across the country? How strong will the ridge be on the west coast? Will any cold air be able to dive out of Canada (there is a lot of cold air up in Canada)? These are all cruical questions that will need to be answered. I sure do hope this pattern remains through the winter months, because it will increase our chances of winter weather in the southeast United States. November's temperatures have been below average for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 How long has it been since we have seen a pattern of lows coming from the southern stream and rolling west to east across the southern tier as shown on the 12z GFS? I remember several of them back in the 80's, but since then not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 How long has it been since we have seen a pattern of lows coming from the southern stream and rolling west to east across the southern tier as shown on the 12z GFS? I remember several of them back in the 80's, but since then not so much. 2008-2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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