November 2013 pattern and discussion

[Cold Rain]

Regarding the Thanksgiving storm, there is striking agreement from all the modeling regarding the track and the timing in relation to the next push of cold air.  The storm arrives just ahead of the cold, meaning rain for most, with perhaps rain changing to snow in the higher elevations.  If anyone else is to see snow, the system needs to slow down by 12/24 hours, which is not an unreasonable change, considering it's still a week away.  The odds are probably around 10% for anyone outside of the mountains to see any wintry weather from this system at this point.

 

After that and longer-term, there stil doesn't appear to be any torching showing up.  The PNA looks to come up to neutral/positive and hover around neutral.  The NAO is forecast to drop to slightly negative, rebound, and then perhaps drop again (if you look at H5 for the next 7 days on any model prog, you'll see a +NAO look).  Virtually, the same is true for the AO.  After a sharp drop to just below neutral, a sharp rise is forecast, followed by a good deal of spread.  The MJO is forecast by virtually every model to remain in or near the COD.  The CFSv2 weekly forecast has cooled from yesterday's run.

 

While the index values are still not aligned in the way we'd like, abundant cold air in the Arctic continues to favor the construction of strong high pressure systems, which continue to plunge southward into the US, with one cold shot after another.  The southern stream continues to look active, with another closed low in the SW after the Thanksgiving system.  At some point, if we continue to see cold air masses enter the US and continue to see an active southern stream, we will get a winter storm.

 

And for fun, here's the 384hr 6Z GFS.  Nice look.  PV over Maine, -NAO, Gulf low, active southern stream, Arctic high building in.  What a pattern that would be.  At least this year, we're getting some nice fantasy runs to look at:

 

 

[Tacoma]

THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF PCPN TYPE. IF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE...OR IF THE SFC LOW REALLY BOMBS TO OUR
SOUTH...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE FOR WINTRY PCPN OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WE WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAY IT VERY CAUTIOUS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.    

Seems there is a slim chance for turkey day. 

[SnowNiner]

While the index values are still not aligned in the way we'd like, abundant cold air in the Arctic continues to favor the construction of strong high pressure systems, which continue to plunge southward into the US, with one cold shot after another.  The southern stream continues to look active, with another closed low in the SW after the Thanksgiving system.  At some point, if we continue to see cold air masses enter the US and continue to see an active southern stream, we will get a winter storm.

 

 

Yeah, if the winter turns out like this past couple weeks and the next upcoming couple of weeks I think I can handle that for sure.  An active southern jet and COLD arctic highs constantly being hurled at us is a recipe for a nice storm at some point.  Eventually, the timing will hit and we'll get something.  Probably be a bunch of misses, but eventually it's going to sync up.  It's like fantasy football, you always play the guy with the most carries.  Even if he stinks, if he has enough chances, he's likely to score. 

 

Throw in a bit of blocking in between once in a while, and we're in business. 

[packbacker]

Really doubting the snow chances right now for the 11/27-28 storm but it could trend that way for some folks in the higher elevations. I do notice that the 6z continues the reload of the pattern idea the the week following this one, but stepping down colder as the height field lowers over the Atlantic and a solid chance of building a real -NAO block and keeping the EPO in neg territory. Best news may be keeping an active STJ going.

Split flow is nice to see, be better if this was Dec 20th and not Nov 20th.

[Shack]

Regarding the Thanksgiving storm, there is striking agreement from all the modeling regarding the track and the timing in relation to the next push of cold air.  The storm arrives just ahead of the cold, meaning rain for most, with perhaps rain changing to snow in the higher elevations.  If anyone else is to see snow, the system needs to slow down by 12/24 hours, which is not an unreasonable change, considering it's still a week away.  The odds are probably around 10% for anyone outside of the mountains to see any wintry weather from this system at this point.

This.

Not that it will verify, but it is striking to look at last nights Euro d7 and the GFS at 177hrs. Low pressure placement, H5 look. Virtually identical to my layman's eyes.

I suspect collusion at high levels of government.

[Brick Tamland]

While the index values are still not aligned in the way we'd like, abundant cold air in the Arctic continues to favor the construction of strong high pressure systems, which continue to plunge southward into the US, with one cold shot after another.  The southern stream continues to look active, with another closed low in the SW after the Thanksgiving system.  At some point, if we continue to see cold air masses enter the US and continue to see an active southern stream, we will get a winter storm.

 

 

Yeah, if the winter turns out like this past couple weeks and the next upcoming couple of weeks I think I can handle that for sure.  An active southern jet and COLD arctic highs constantly being hurled at us is a recipe for a nice storm at some point.  Eventually, the timing will hit and we'll get something.  Probably be a bunch of misses, but eventually it's going to sync up.  It's like fantasy football, you always play the guy with the most carries.  Even if he stinks, if he has enough chances, he's likely to score. 

 

Throw in a bit of blocking in between once in a while, and we're in business. 

 

I hope so. I would hate to see a lot of missed opportunities and cold air, but no precip to go with it or not cold enough for anything but rain. It's great if the players on the field look good, but if they don't produce any wins it doesn't matter.

[dsaur]

Really doubting the snow chances right now for the 11/27-28 storm but it could trend that way for some folks in the higher elevations.  I do notice that the 6z continues the reload of the pattern idea the the week following this one, but stepping down colder as the height field lowers over the Atlantic and a solid chance of building a real -NAO block and keeping the EPO in neg territory.  Best news may be keeping an active STJ going.

 

Yeah, it'd be a huge win in my eyes just to see an inch or more of rain, and worry about frozen in Jan. when it's more likely to happen   T

[Bevo]

Split flow is nice to see, be better if this was Dec 20th and not Nov 20th.

 

If an actual split flow gets established, I will weigh the Euro solutions with much more consideration than I have in a long time. In my opinion, a split flow is where the Euro really shines and is also one of the best options for the SE to have legitimate chances for winter weather.

 

To touch on an earlier comment, I will consider this winter a win if we make it through without the bulk of the SE enduring 3 months of warm temps.  Although I was fortunate to experience a rather normal winter last year - most of the SE did not benefit from living in Wedgeland. And as CR pointed out, so far nothing looks torchy in the short to medium.

[franklin NCwx]

If an actual split flow gets established, I will weigh the Euro solutions with much more consideration than I have in a long time. In my opinion, a split flow is where the Euro really shines and is also one of the best options for the SE to have legitimate chances for winter weather.

To touch on an earlier comment, I will consider this winter a win if we make it through without the bulk of the SE enduring 3 months of warm temps. Although I was fortunate to experience a rather normal winter last year - most of the SE did not benefit from living in Wedgeland. And as CR pointed out, so far nothing looks torchy in the short to medium.

I agree 100%on the euro and split flow. as ling as the epo is negative we will.get blasts of arctic air.

[NCCatawba]

 

Brad Panovich WCNC

Looking ahead to the big travel day next Wednesday, both the GFS & EURO models have a nor'easter type system on the east coast. Something to watch but also something to caution & think about 7 days out. If this storm speeds up or slows down a mere 3 mph multipled by the 186 hours out that this model run is. The position of the storm would change by 558 miles.

[NCCatawba]

I would hate to see a lot of missed opportunities and cold air, but no precip to go with it or not cold enough for anything but rain. It's great if the players on the field look good, but if they don't produce any wins it doesn't matter.

 

Yea don't see this too often. It will be an unfortunate miss if we turn mild later this winter.

[Brick Tamland]

 

Brad Panovich WCNC

Looking ahead to the big travel day next Wednesday, both the GFS & EURO models have a nor'easter type system on the east coast. Something to watch but also something to caution & think about 7 days out. If this storm speeds up or slows down a mere 3 mph multipled by the 186 hours out that this model run is. The position of the storm would change by 558 miles.

 

 

That really puts things in perspective. Lots of time for a lot to change.

[NCsandhills]

Wow. Is this for real!? What month is this!?

[griteater]

Really good looking southern stream wave...likely rain to snow in higher elevations this run.

[tnweathernut]

It sure is looking like a cold and dreary southern soaker is coming for Thanksgiving per most modeling

[Wow]

Well well well

 

[Bevo]

Well well well

 

 

That certainly is an interesting adjustment to the 850's.

[FallsLake]

Well well well

 

Just saw that...very interesting. Would like to see the high in a litlle better postion but I will not complain at this point.

[NCCatawba]

[burgertime]

12z says snow for parts of NC

[packfan98]

Just saw that...very interesting. Would like to see the high in a litlle better postion but I will not complain at this point.

Looks like that pesky low in Eastern Canada is moving out faster on this run.  Could give a little more favorable placement for the high to funnel down a little more cold air.

[Brick Tamland]

Lots of time for things to change, but this is a good step in the right direction.

[Wow]

12z says snow for parts of NC

 

Snow in the mtns with rain ending as snow in the foothills and W piedmont.

 

Temps at 4 pm on Thanksgiving.  At least it's cold.  I cannot stand warm thanksgiving days.

 

[burgertime]

One thing to note is that you get some sort of redevelopment at 192 which may be due to the GFS going into truncation. This run looks really believable (at least to me)  though. I'm curious to see if the Euro supports a solution like it. 

[NCCatawba]

 

[Cold Rain]

That certainly is an interesting adjustment to the 850's.

If the system slows down, there may be an outside shot of someone getting a few flakes. What's with the new Miller Bish look now?

[burgertime]

Snow in the mtns with rain ending as snow in the foothills and W piedmont.

 

Temps at 4 pm on Thanksgiving.  At least it's cold.  I cannot stand warm thanksgiving days.

 

 

 

At 189 on the clown map for SV it has snow from about GSO to RDU and then along i-40 in the usual spots. I'm with you on those warm Thanksgivings and this looks to be one where you're actually happy to be inside with family. 

[tnweathernut]

Trailing upper level energy flakes FTW!

[jburns]

 

Brad Panovich WCNC

Looking ahead to the big travel day next Wednesday, both the GFS & EURO models have a nor'easter type system on the east coast. Something to watch but also something to caution & think about 7 days out. If this storm speeds up or slows down a mere 3 mph multipled by the 186 hours out that this model run is. The position of the storm would change by 558 miles.

 

 

If there ever was a post that, in the simplest of terms, shows the futility of trying to predict snow in the SE beyond a day or two, this is it.  Most of the time, there is only a short time frame where temps will be conducive to snow outside of the mountains. I've improved my sanity level by pretty much ignoring the models beyond three days out.  That way, I only have to endure around 6 forecast changes before it rains.  

[SnowNiner]

Well well well

 

 

 

Whohoo, X marks the spot in Charlotte!! lol

 

Looks like another "lee trough" type of deal to me; after the storm moves through to the east.  I'm starting to like those.  It's the only way we get snow in Charlotte anymore.  Assuming it actually turns out that way.  I'm still thinking rain for most, snow in mountains for this storm.