November 2013 pattern and discussion

[mackerel_sky]

My 10 day on weather.com now has a mix forecast for Thanksgiving day! Def the kiss of death, but pattern the next few weeks looks interesting!

[Cold Rain]

You know it's bad just based on the deafening silence in the SE forum. The southern system is still there on the Euro, but the track isn't as ideal, the best I can tell, and the cold doesn't get in place in time.

I'm sure the timing of things is not going to be accurate this far out, so I guess that the pieces are still on the board is a good thing. It's unlikely that we'll get anything other than rain, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Overall, the pattern continues to show neither sustained warmth nor sustained cold. It's very variable, although some continue to opine that sustained warmth is likely to set in within the first few days of the new month.

I suppose after a few days of good looking LR model runs, we're due for a period of a few not so good looking cycles. It's usually the way it works. Wash, rinse, repeat.

[BullCityWx]

The canadian has a seriously icy look to it. 

[FLweather]

A quick update from the Central/Western sub forum for you folks in the SE as to where all this cold air is coming from and why there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this cutoff low forecasted to be in Southern California on Thursday/Friday. If we look NW into Eastern Alaska and the NW Territories of Canada, we can see that our source region is very cold with temps in the -20 to -30 range. A short wave disturbance is depicted as a milky white feature dropping SE from that region this morning on water vapor imagery and being very dense with its origin over the Artic and Northern Siberia. Behind that short wave or upper air disturbance is a strong Arctic front racing S and should enter the Lower 48 from Canada tomorrow.

 

 

Canada and Alaska has sufficient snow cover to keep this air mass from modifying, so a strong Arctic High Pressure cell (1050mb+) will have little problems dropping S into the Northern and Central Plains. There is not much in the way of snow on the ground across the Central Plains, but due to the SW flow aloft originating from a noisy Pacific Southern Stream as the upper low wraps up into a closed cold core low, mid and upper moisture will stream over the shallow very cold air mass at the surface.

 

As the Arctic High slides S into the Southern Plains, upslope winds will begin in earnest along the Southern Rockies and the Front Range allowing for light snow, freezing rain and sleet to develop. Across the higher elevations of Southern Colorado into New Mexico, heavy snow should develop and continue into the weekend as possibly early next week. What we do not know at this time is just how quickly the 500mb cold core low will begin to move east as it becomes separated from the northern branch of the Polar jet. All options are on the table as of today regarding whether we see nothing more than a chilly rain or a significant ice storm across the Northern half of Texas and Oklahoma into Arkansas. Also the fly in the ointment continues to be whether a Coastal low forms and just when that will happen, if it does at all. For you folks further E, there are indications that the busy Thanksgiving Travel period may offer a rather cold and stormy pattern that warrants monitoring.

Thanks for stopping in and the input. I agree though.... how fast this upper level low moves and what kind of a northern stream connection this has will be the determining factors of ptype.

 

The canadian has a seriously icy look to it. 

Yeah it does. Even GFS around these parts continue to show temps around 35 range.

[metalicwx366]

Charlotte has a mix of rain and snow in the forecast for Thanksgiving. Lol!

[burgertime]

You know it's bad just based on the deafening silence in the SE forum. The southern system is still there on the Euro, but the track isn't as ideal, the best I can tell, and the cold doesn't get in place in time.

I'm sure the timing of things is not going to be accurate this far out, so I guess that the pieces are still on the board is a good thing. It's unlikely that we'll get anything other than rain, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Overall, the pattern continues to show neither sustained warmth nor sustained cold. It's very variable, although some continue to opine that sustained warmth is likely to set in within the first few days of the new month.

I suppose after a few days of good looking LR model runs, we're due for a period of a few not so good looking cycles. It's usually the way it works. Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

My problem with it is that there really isn't much model consistency and the way the Euro has it at 12z it's kind of gotta be a perfect timing situation. Always tough in November. Either way as we've been saying it's hard not to get excited with the pattern as it's setting up now. 

[Poimen]

My problem with it is that there really isn't much model consistency and the way the Euro has it at 12z it's kind of gotta be a perfect timing situation. Always tough in November in the Southeast regardless of the month. Either way as we've been saying it's hard not to get excited with the pattern as it's setting up now. 

 

FIFY.

[pcbjr]

On 17 November 2013 - 04:12 PM I posted (and am editing to be current):

 

Mods,

 

Not sure where else to post this so if wrong forum, please relocate and PM or email me so I can keep track of any responses.

 

To the NE GA mountain folks in particular -

 

I'm planning on heading up this Friday arriving late evening the 22nd and doing some AT hiking Saturday morning until Monday evening, between roughly Suches and Vogel and Bear Pen (on the Richard Russel). Models remain unclear on precip (if, when, and what kind). Commercial and NWS websites show rain Saturday, some are hinting at ice; and the temp forecasts are not at all consistent.

 

I need to clear work to come or not. Cold or even a half day rain I could handle, but 2 days rain with teen nights, or some hiking ice -- well, I'll come in a couple weeks instead.

 

Anyone have any good, current prognostications/thoughts?

 

Thanks!

[FLweather]

18z still close but no cigar for a snowstorm. A little bit colder some.

 

Still room for improvements. Really speeded things up from previous runs and 12z.

[superjames1992]

Hr 384 on the 18z GFS is a riot.

[pcbjr]

Hr 384 on the 18z GFS is a riot.

????????

[tarheelwx]

Hr 384 on the 18z GFS is a riot.

Somebody let Brick start drawing the maps again.

TW

[superjames1992]

????????

 

(For entertainment purposes only)

 

[Reb]

I'll do you one better...  

[Wow]

If you have a subscription to the MC, you can see the trend loop clearing showing the PV trending SE, becoming more separated from the main flow and pushing the downstream ridge further into Greenland.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfs&run_time=18z&param=500mbHGHT&map=NH&run_hour=117&loop=trend

[FallsLake]

18z GFS definitely looks interesting for next week. Doesn't show the strong CAD we need but this is something that can trend towards that direction. Very close...

[FallsLake]

Still looking at the 18z GFS -- it has areas near Raleigh with dew points near zero at hour 144, and then rises it to near 40 at hour 180. Very possible, but I would think there would be some kind of CAD signature that would allow some of that cold/dry air to get locked in. If this exact setup shows up for another few run I think we may have something to track.

[Stovepipe]

I'll do you one better...  

 

 

I know a certain someone whose gonna go ALL IN on this one.  His name starts with T and ends with T, also known as WxEastern. 

 

Reb, I'm all about chasing some more Foothills Parkway sleet storms if you're with me though.  Even last year's marginal storms were fun.  Text me.

[Reb]

I know a certain someone whose gonna go ALL IN on this one.  His name starts with T and ends with T, also known as WxEastern. 

 

Reb, I'm all about chasing some more Foothills Parkway sleet storms if you're with me though.  Even last year's marginal storms were fun.  Text me.

sleet storm was fantastic. never heard the thundersnow that was reported that day though. PM me your number, new phone.

[SN_Lover]

I'll do you one better...  

 

Fantasy hour, where dreams become reality.  

[MotoWeatherman]

Check out my Facebook page for dahlonega weather for updates. The app trail forms the northern border of our county and includes some of the areas you mentioned. The page is simply "Dahlonega Weather" on Facebook.

On 17 November 2013 - 04:12 PM I posted (and am editing to be current):

 

Mods,

 

Not sure where else to post this so if wrong forum, please relocate and PM or email me so I can keep track of any responses.

 

To the NE GA mountain folks in particular -

 

I'm planning on heading up this Friday arriving late evening the 22nd and doing some AT hiking Saturday morning until Monday evening, between roughly Suches and Vogel and Bear Pen (on the Richard Russel). Models remain unclear on precip (if, when, and what kind). Commercial and NWS websites show rain Saturday, some are hinting at ice; and the temp forecasts are not at all consistent.

 

I need to clear work to come or not. Cold or even a half day rain I could handle, but 2 days rain with teen nights, or some hiking ice -- well, I'll come in a couple weeks instead.

 

Anyone have any good, current prognostications/thoughts?

 

Thanks!

[Shawn]

Eh a bit colder but most no dice per 00z GFS run.  Have faith. <3

[Reb]

0z faster with more cold indeed. Lets see what dr no says in a couple of hours.

[griteater]

Such a good looking southern stream wave that doesn't get squashed to oblivion with nice western U.S. ridging behind it...that look has been absent the past 2 winters.

[Reb]

Such a good looking southern stream wave that doesn't get squashed to oblivion with nice western U.S. ridging behind it...that look has been absent the past 2 winters.

Theres a nice little wave behind the turkey day one as well 

[dsaur]

I sure hope Tues verifies, and doesn't take this week to turn into another of what looks to be another fropa fizzle on Sat.

[FallsLake]

6z GFS still looks promising. Does not show the exact setup we are looking for but the players are on the table. Maybe by this weekend things will get a little bit clearer.

 

RAH:

 

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING... BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE... A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
U.S./NRN BAJA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. HOW THE SYSTEM PHASES/INTERACTS
WITH THE RELOADING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST U.S. WILL
HAVE GREAT IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION... WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL SYSTEM AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME... WITH
INCREASING ODDS FOR PRECIP NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 

[Alfoman]

As for the 6z GFS, looks fairly promising I gotta say for next week's storm. The low develops in the gulf and rides up the gulf states though florida, then Georgia, and then up the east coast. That 1036 mb high dives down after it, which is already to late,but we will see if that low get projected southward more and the high dives down lower and earlier. Still a huge time frame for things to die down or pick up. I'm just excited to see the models showing promising signs this early on. Hope it stays that way. 

[FLweather]

While GFS is no where near perfect for a snowstorm start to finish... need more northern stream interaction ahead of the precip arrivial to get snow from start to finish.

 

But both 0z and 6z run would be indicative of a rain changing to snow associated with the secondary push(arctic front) that moves in behind the LP.

 

[Wow]

Really doubting the snow chances right now for the 11/27-28 storm but it could trend that way for some folks in the higher elevations.  I do notice that the 6z continues the reload of the pattern idea the the week following this one, but stepping down colder as the height field lowers over the Atlantic and a solid chance of building a real -NAO block and keeping the EPO in neg territory.  Best news may be keeping an active STJ going.